July 7, 2022 4:54pm

A pop after a down session following a holiday as a positive Friday started the month even as breath had shown signs of softening

The Biostage Chronicles: Traded +$0.23 with 4,771 shares traded after Wednesday’s +$1.22 with 14,121 shares traded – 3 mo. average = 1,408 shares). How much lipstick is being put on this pig with a three (3) + year old IND without a clinical trial commencement?

Pre-open indications: 2 HITs, 5 MISS and 1 Puff/Pump/Promote

WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions.  Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?

No tunnel vision here, I get into the weeds of share pricing 

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +346.87 points (+1.12%); the S&P closed UP +57.54 points (+1.50%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +259.49 points (+2.28%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes rose on Thursday extending a modest winning streak and recovering from a rough 1H (first half) of the year.

A good quote, “There’s not necessarily much conviction in this move, but it is nice to see that, in the absence of new negative news, that markets are bouncing off of short-term oversold levels,” said Angelo Kourkafas, investment strategist at Edward Jones.”  

Another view, “Bottoming is a process, so we’re working our way through that process,” said Jeff Buchbinder, equity strategist at LPL Financial. “We think, if the lows aren’t in, they’re close.”

Economic Data Docket: Initial filings for unemployment benefits totaled 235,000 for the week ended July 2, a gain of 4,000 from the previous period. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, also moved up, rising 51,000 to 1.375 million, higher than the 1.337 million FactSet estimate. The U.S. imbalance for goods and services declined to $85.5 billion, from $86.7 billion in April. Another report indicated that companies announced 32,517 layoffs in June, a 57% jump from a month ago and the highest total since February 2021.

 

RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “what the market giveth, it also takes away. The cell and gene therapy sector is under pressure, still facing a lot of key resistance levels.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12504

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Thursday opened positive at 31 up/ 3 down and 1 flat, stayed positive at the mid-day advance /decline line of 19/14 and 1 flat, ending with a positive close of 29/5 and 1 flat.

 

Pre-open Indications: 2 HITs < CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +5.50), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.49)> 5 MISS <Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$6.11), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$3.53), Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.86), uniQure NV (QURE +$1.72), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.82)> 1 Puff/Pump/Promote <Biostage (BSTG +$0.23 with 4,771 shares traded – 3 mo. average = 1,408 shares)>

 

Key Metrics:

  • Thursday - Sector volume was HIGHER with 15 of the 29-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 1 of 5-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB was up +2.47% and the XBI was up +3.02%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was down -0.65 points or -2.43% at 26.08

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 29):

  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$6.11 after Wednesday’s -$0.93 and Tuesday’s +$6.70),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$5.50 after Wednesday’s +$2.10 and Tuesday’s +$6.81)
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$3.53 after Wednesday’s -$2.67 and Tuesday’s +$9.17),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$3.42 after Wednesday’s -$0.73 and Tuesday’s +$2.48),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$2.30 after Wednesday’s -$0.47 and Tuesday’s +$3.96),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$2.25 after Wednesday’s +$1.56),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$1.72 after Wednesday’s -$0.65 and Tuesday’s +$1.66),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.21),
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.93 after Wednesday’s +$0.21),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.86 after Wednesday’s -$0.21 and Tuesday’s +$1.96),

Closing down (5 of 5):

  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.16 after Wednesday’s +$0.17),
  • Verastem (VSTM -$0.07),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.04 after Wednesday’s -$1.04 and Tuesday’s -$0.21),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.01),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.01),

 

July, Q3/2022:

  • Thursday closed positive with 29 incliners, 5 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  I do appreciate the share pricing “ascension”; however, are we seeing a game of chicken with algorithms, electronic trading and traders, as the sector appreciated for the third (3rd) session this month and new Q3? Ultimately, the algorithms and electronic alongside traders are going to reap the profit on the back of the upside.

Volume was lower on both the Nasdaq compared to the same time Wednesday; it’s not ideal on an up day.

For investors; can you TRUST sessions that dramatically appreciate?

With quarterly corporate earnings season set to be released in the next few weeks, the focus will soon shift to how companies have shifted percentage-wise (today’s, a high of +14.62% and a low of -2.97% versus Wednesday’s high of +10.77$ and a low of -11.59%).

As I have been writing” There is VALUE out there however, it’s about playing or betting the timing of the sector. We are left with choosing to hang on to “our” portfolio position as it is a given that the sector shifts from fierce, sudden sell-offs to gaining altitude or ascending not to its value but, better than it was.

We always need a villain and they are multiplying – earnings season is on its way.

Reiterating, I believe there will be opportunity in cell and gene therapy equities but, the summer doldrums are still a roadblock. This period of volatility will likely last into the second half of the year.

However, the continuing state of volatility confirms fears that I have been expressing these daily and weekly posts.

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.