July 8, 2022 4:40pm
Cell and gene therapy equities inched incrementally higher Friday reacting to a stronger-than-expected jobs report
Pre-open indications: 9 HITs and 1 MISS
WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions. Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?
No tunnel vision here, I get into the weeds of share pricing
The week in review - what happened and to whom, the root metrics
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed DOWN -45.35 points (0.14%); the S&P closed DOWN -3.25 points (-0.08%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +13.96 points (+0.12%)
Henry’omics:
indexes closed mixed (the Nasdaq closed barely positive) after strong non-farm jobs report.
Though the jobs report was a positive sign, many investors believe that will allow the Fed to aggressively fight inflation with rate hikes in the coming months.
Q2 earnings season begins in earnest next week.
Nasdaq volume is up 3.6% vs. the same time on Thursday.
Economic Data Docket: Nonfarm payrolls increased 372,000 in the month of June, better than the 250,000 Dow Jones estimate and continuing what has been a strong year for job growth, according to data Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “where and what are the catalysts to keep the sector up? The sector has risen to where they've struggled; post in the past three (3) out of five (5) July sessions.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12507
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …
- Friday opened negative at 24 up/ 12 down, flipped positive with 21 up/13 and 1 flat at 10 a.m., strayed neutral at the mid-day’s advance /decline line of 17/17 and 1 flat, ending with a positive close of 22/13.
- Thursday opened positive at 31 up/ 3 down and 1 flat, stayed positive at the mid-day advance /decline line of 19/14 and 1 flat, ending with a positive close of 29/5 and 1 flat.
- Wednesday opened positive at 28 up/ 6 down and 1 flat, stayed positive at the mid-day to 31/4 advance/decline line, ending with a negative close of 16/19.
- Tuesday opened positive at 19 up/ 15 downs and 1 flat, stayed positive at the mid-day to 29/5 and 1 flat, ending with a positive close of 32/3.
- Monday was a market holiday
Pre-open Indications: 9 HITs < Biostage (BSTG -$0.55 with 2,334 shares traded – 3 mo. average = 1,665 shares); SELL into Strength: Caribou Therapeutics (CRBU +$0.25), Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.92), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.43), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.69), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.10), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.36), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.50), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.65)> 1 MISS < Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.34)>
Key Metrics:
- Friday - Sector volume was LOW with 5 of the 22-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 3 of 13-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Thursday - Sector volume was HIGHER with 15 of the 29-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 1 of 5-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Wednesday - Sector volume was LOW with 5 of the 16-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 8 of 19-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Tuesday - Sector volume was LOW with 15 of the 32-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with MODERATE volume of 1 of 3-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
- Monday was a market holiday
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Friday, the IBB was up +0.67% and the XBI was up +1.14%
- Thursday, the IBB was up +2.47% and the XBI was up +3.02%
- Wednesday, the IBB was down -0.02% and the XBI was up +0.02%
- Tuesday, the IBB was up +2.20% and the XBI was up +5.81%
- Monday was a market holiday
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Friday was down -1.35 points or -5.18% at 24.73
- Thursday was down -0.65 points or -2.43% at 26.08
- Wednesday was down -0.80 points or -2.90% at 26.74
- Tuesday was up +0.01 points or +0.04% at 27.54
- Market was a market holiday
Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 22):
- Ultragenyx (RARE +$2.31),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$1.39 after Thursday’s +$2.25 and Wednesday’s +$1.56),
- uniQure NV (QURE +$0.86 after Thursday’s +$1.72, Wednesday’s -$0.65 and Tuesday’s +$1.66),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.69),
- Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.43 after Thursday’s +$0.93, Wednesday’s +$0.21),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.38 after Thursday’s -$0.04, Wednesday’s -$1.04 and Tuesday’s -$0.21),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.34 after Thursday’s +$6.11, Wednesday’s -$0.93 and Tuesday’s +$6.70),
- Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.25),
- Vericel (VCEL +$0.17),
- Agenus (AGEN +$0.15),
Closing down (13 of 13):
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.50 after Thursday’s +$5.50, Wednesday’s +$2.10 and Tuesday’s +$6.81)
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.93 after Thursday’s +$3.42, Wednesday’s -$0.73 and Tuesday’s +$2.48),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.92 after Thursday’s +$2.30, Wednesday’s -$0.47 and Tuesday’s +$3.96),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.65 after Thursday’s +$3.53, Wednesday’s -$2.67 and Tuesday’s +$9.17),
- Biostage (BSTG -$0.55),
- AxoGen (AXGN -$0.50 after Thursday’s -$0.16 and Wednesday’s +$0.17),
- Chinook therapeutics (KDNY -$0.36),
- MiMedx (MDXG -$0.32),
- Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.20 after Thursday’s +$0.86, Wednesday’s -$0.21 and Tuesday’s +$1.96),
- Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.10),
- Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.04 after Thursday’s -$0.01),
- Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.04),
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.0035),
July, Q3/2022:
- Friday closed positive with 22 incliners and 13 decliners
- Thursday closed positive with 29 incliners, 5 decliners and 1 flat
- Wednesday closed negative with 16 incliners and 19 decliners
- Tuesday closed positive with 32 incliner and 3 decliners
- Monday was a holiday
- Friday (7/1) closed positive close with 26 incliners, 8 decliners and 1 flat.
The BOTTOM LINE: I do appreciate the share pricing “ascension” again on Friday after Thursday’s positive close; however, I believe we are seeing a game of chicken with algorithms, electronic trading and traders.
The sector appreciated for the fourth (4th) session this month and new Q3? Ultimately, the algorithms and electronic alongside traders are going to reap the profit on the back of the upside.
Reiterating,” A sign of the times to come, Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM), a gene therapy company will cut 78 jobs or 38% of its workforce to extend its “runway” into 2025 and focus its remaining cash on treatments for eye diseases, including a common cause of blindness. ADVM had cash, equivalents and short-term investments of $271.1 million at the end of March, said the savings will extend its cash runway one year into 2025. Following the announcement, ADVM closed up $0.17 and Friday +$0.11.
Volume was lower on both the Nasdaq compared to the same time Wednesday and Thursday; it’s not ideal on an up day.
For investors; can you TRUST sessions that dramatically appreciate?
Reiterating, “With quarterly corporate earnings season set to be released in the next few weeks, the focus will soon shift to how companies have shifted percentage-wise (Friday’s high of +% and a low of +% following Thursday’s high of +14.62% and a low of -2.97% versus Wednesday’s high of +10.77$ and a low of -11.59%).
As I have been writing” There is VALUE out there however, it’s about playing or betting the timing of the sector. We are left with choosing to hang on to “our” portfolio position as it is a given that the sector shifts from fierce, sudden sell-offs to gaining altitude or ascending not to its value but, better than it was.
We always need a villain and they are multiplying – earnings season is on its way.
Reiterating, I believe there will be opportunity in cell and gene therapy equities but, the summer doldrums are still a roadblock. This period of volatility will likely last into the second half of the year.
However, the continuing state of volatility confirms fears that I have been expressing these daily and weekly posts.
BUILD CASH POSITIONS, the upward spiral will be STRIPPED, maybe NOT all today but, it’s coming.
I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
