July 11, 2022 4:56pm
It’s some part about Q2 earnings but mostly about declining share pricing; hoping for catalysts (hope is also not an action initiative)
Pre-open indications: 6 HITs and 0 MISS
Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) Chronicles: after multiple sessions of pumping the share price and volume, the “lipstick on this pig” was smeared as 5,387 shares traded dropped the daily value -$1.189 or -20.88% with the – 3 mo. average = 1,703 shares. The pending stock reverse to re-structure for private placements to public shares seems to be encountering some bumps?
WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions. Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?
No tunnel vision here, I get into the weeds of share pricing
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed DOWN -164.31 points (-0.52%); the S&P closed DOWN -44.95 points (-1.15%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -262.71 points (-2.26%)
Henry’omics:
Indexes were mixed on Monday bracing for the initiation of earnings season (luckily not our sector quite yet) and Wednesday’s signal of how inflation will impact this market.
Later in the week a raft of economic data - including consumer prices, retail sales and factory output - should provide a glimpse of the extent to which inflation has peaked and the economy has cooled down as the Federal Reserve moves closer to next week's policy meeting, which is expected to culminate in the second straight 75 basis point interest rate hike. <Reuters>
Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) Chronicles: closed down -$1.189 with 5,387 shares traded after Friday’s -$0.55 to $5.70 with 2,334 shares traded, Thursday’s +$0.23 to $6.25 with 4,771 shares traded, Wednesday’s +$1.22 to $6.02 with 14, 121 shares traded, Tuesday’s +$0.32 to $4.80 with 496 shares traded while last Monday was a holiday.
Economic Data Docket: Investors are also looking ahead to the release of June’s CPI (consumer price index) on Wednesday. It is expected to show headline inflation, including food and energy, rising above May’s 8.6% level to 8.8% - we are feeling “it” all ready.
RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “eenie, meenie, miney mo. Basically, random “picks” are in store for the week in “our” universe of cell and gene therapy equities” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12509
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …
- Monday advance/decline line opened negative at 0 up/ 34 down and 1 flat, stayed negative with 5 up/30 at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 1/33 and 1 flat.
Pre-open Indications: 6 HITs < Biostage (BSTG -$1.189 with 5,367 shares traded – 3 mo. average = 1,703 shares), Caribou Therapeutics (CRBU -$0.10), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.56), Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.50), UniQure NV (QURE -$0.61), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.61 even with positive news)> and 0 MISS
Key Metrics:
- Monday - Sector volume was LOW with 0 of the 1-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 7 of 33-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
Monday, the IBB was down -1.86% and the XBI was down -4.42%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Monday was up +1.51 points or +6.13% at 26.15
Jumping with share pricing momentum (1 of 1):
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.08),
Closing down (10 of 33):
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$3.09 after Friday’s -$0.65),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.99 after Friday’s -$1.50)
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.58 after Friday’s -$0.93),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.56 after Friday’s +$0.34),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.50 after Friday’s -$0.92),
- Biostage (BSTG -$1.1899 after Friday’s -$0.55),
- Editas Medicine (EDIT -$1.18),
- Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$1.14 after Friday’s +$0.43),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.05 after Friday’s +$0.69),
- Vericel (VCEL -$1.05 after Friday’s +$0.17),
July, Q3/2022:
- Monday closed negative with 1 incliner, 33 decliners and 1 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
One word for today's session ... carnage!
The cell and gene therapy sector came-off a strong week (only one negative close) but is at a more of a break point, bracing for continued volatility in the second (2nd) full week of July,
As I wrote this a.m., “I remain cautious, after a week of “love”; a sell-off at current pricing IS be a serious downward signal especially as we enter the Q2 earnings cycle. A few bad days would turn recent buys into clear losses, with the sector heading toward lows once again”.
As I have been writing” There is VALUE out there however, it’s about playing or betting the timing of the sector. We are left with choosing to hang on to “our” portfolio position as it is a given that the sector shifts from fierce, sudden sell-offs to gaining altitude or ascending not to its value but, better than it was.
We always need a villain and they are multiplying – the CPI on Wednesday as earnings season is on its way.
Reiterating, “a few bad days would turn recent buys into clear losses, with the sector heading back into new lows once again”.
Reiterating, I believe there will be opportunity in cell and gene therapy equities but, the summer doldrums are still a roadblock. This period of volatility will likely last into the second half of the year.
However, the continuing state of volatility confirms fears that I have been expressing these daily and weekly posts.
BUILD CASH POSITIONS, the upward spiral will be STRIPPED, it’s here with more coming.
I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
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