July 13, 2022 4:45pm

Traction is a response to be oversold and a chance to revisit the position; the algorithms are lusting for the appreciation

Pre-open indications: 2 MISS, 7 HiTs and 1 Puff/pump/Promote

Financing Update: Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) 16.66 M share financing; shares still dropping -$0.457 or -53.9% to $0.389 after offering was priced at $0.60 for 16.66 M shares as 11.81 M shares traded

WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions.  Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?

No tunnel vision here, I get into the weeds of share pricing 

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed DOWN -208.54 points (-0.67%); the S&P closed DOWN -17 points (-0.45%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -17.15 points (-0.15%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes tumbled after a key inflation report showed that US consumer prices continued to surge in June.

The market now expects the Fed to take historic action to combat inflation, with a growing segment expecting the US central bank to raise rates by a full percentage point later this month.

 

RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “waiting for … value to stay-up or pick-up” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12514

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Wednesday advance/decline line opened negative at 4 up/ 30 down and 1 flat, popped positive with 28 up/6 and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 28/7.

 

Pre-open Indications: 7 HITs < Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$2.97), Avrobio (AVRO +$0.01), BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.30), Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.75), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.92), Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.457), Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.03)> and 2 MISS <Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.49), > 1 puff/Pump/Promote < Biostage (BSTG +$1.33 with 376 shares traded>

 

Key Metrics:

  • Tuesday - Sector volume was LOW with 9 of the 28-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 2 of 7-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.04% and the XBI was up +1.64%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Wednesday was down -0.70 points or – 2.57% at 26.59

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 28):

  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$2.97 after Tuesday’s +$1.72),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$2.71 after Tuesday’s +$2.43 and Monday’s -$1.56),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.75 after Tuesday’s +$0.57 and Monday’s -$1.18),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.65 after Tuesday’s +$5.34 and Monday’s -$2.99)
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.51),
  • Biostage (BSTG +$1.33),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.96), after Tuesday’s +$0.55),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.92 after Tuesday’s -$0.02),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.67 after Tuesday’s +$1.65),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.65 after Tuesday’s +$0.46),

Closing down (7 of 7):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$3.15 after Tuesday’s -$5.06 and Monday’s -$1.58),
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.45 after Tuesday’s -$0.0115),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.320,
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.05 after Tuesday’s -$0.07),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.03),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.03 after Tuesday’s -$0.01),
  • Verastem (VSTM -$0.01),

 

July, Q3/2022:

  • Wednesday closed positive with 28 incliner and 7 decliners

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

The cell and gene therapy sector whether we see or know it is getting squeezed in valuations.

Good session on Tuesday and a hair better day on Wednesday, the sector responded to algorithms and electronic trading of being oversold.

Volume is still low …

AS I WROTE THIS A.M, “waiting for … value to stay-up or pick-up” and I wasn’t wrong even as I second thought after I published!

As I have been writing” There is VALUE out there however, it’s about playing or betting the timing of the sector. We are left with choosing to hang on to “our” portfolio position as it is a given that the sector shifts from fierce, sudden sell-offs to gaining altitude or ascending not to its value but, better than it was.

We always need a villain and they are multiplying – the CPI on Wednesday with earnings season on its way.

I am still waiting for the “UGLY” as the Pacman algorithms are getting hungry looking at the appreciation in many equities>

However, the continuing state of volatility confirms fears that I have been expressing these daily and weekly posts.

Earnings’ season is coming, investors NEED to focus on LPS (loss-per-share), collaboration revenues and cash positions i.e., “runways”.

BUILD CASH POSITIONS, the upward spiral will be STRIPPED, maybe NOT all today but, it’s coming.

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.