July 15, 2022 4:49pm

Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: After “pimping” the volume and share prices most of the week drops share pricing -$1.00 to $5.00 with 10,658 shares traded. <3-month average = 1,696 shares> Will reversing non-public private placement shares really assist in a public offering without a clinical trial initiation after a 3+ year old IND?

Pre-open indications: 2 MISS and 5 HiTs

WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions.  Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?

No tunnel vision here, I get into the weeds of daily share pricing and causes

The week in review - what happened and to whom, the root metrics

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +658.02 points (+2.15%); the S&P closed UP +72.78 points (+1.92%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +201.24 points (+1.79%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes U.S. climbed on Friday with an upbeat retail sales data while investors question the size of an interest rate hike in July after comments from Fed’s policymakers.

Data showed U.S. retail sales rebounded strongly in June as Americans spent more on gasoline and other goods amid soaring inflation.

The numbers are a sign of relief to equities, but a 75-basis point increase is still on deck for July.

Economic Data Docket: June retail sales came in ahead of expectations on Friday, rising 1% on a monthly basis and ahead of Dow estimate of 0.9% and indicating that consumers are bolstering retail spending even as inflation hits record highs. Consumer sentiment remains relatively downbeat; a separate report from the University of Michigan registered a reading of just 51.1, better than the 50 estimate but still around record lows. Inflation expectations remain elevated, with the one-year outlook at 5.2% little changed from levels of the past months.

 

All-time low:

  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) at $0.35

 

RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “reversing some of the algo downslide curse” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12518

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: the flow of what happened

  • Friday advance/decline line opened negative at 8 up/ 26 down and 1 flat, popped positive with 20 up/14 and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a BARELY positive close of 17/16 and 2 flats.
  • Thursday advance/decline line opened negative at 9 up/ 25 down and 1 flat, stayed negative with 8 up/26 and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 12/21 and 1 flat.
  • Wednesday advance/decline line opened negative at 4 up/ 30 down and 1 flat, popped positive with 28 up/6 and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 28/7.
  • Tuesday advance/decline line opened negative at 5 up/ 29 down and 1 flat, popped positive with 24 up/9 and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 25/10 and 0 flat.
  • Monday advance/decline line opened negative at 0 up/ 34 down and 1 flat, stayed negative with 5 up/30 at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 1/33 and 1 flat.

 

Pre-open Indications: 5 HITs < Biostage (BSTG -$1.00 with 10,658 shares traded), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$6.85), BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.32); SELL into Strength: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.48), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.50)> 2 MISS < uniQure NV (QURE +$0.98), Vericel (VCEL +$0.54)

 

Key Metrics:

  • Friday - Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 17-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 3 of 16-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday - Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 12-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 4 of 21-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday - Sector volume was LOW with 9 of the 28-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 2 of 7-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday - Sector volume was LOW with 6 of the 25-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 4 of 10-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday - Sector volume was LOW with 0 of the 1-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 7 of 33-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was up +1.47% and the XBI was up +1.29%
  • Thursday, the IBB was down -1.68% and the XBI was down -2.28%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.04% and the XBI was up +1.64%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was down -0.50% and the XBI was up +1.76%
  • Monday, the IBB was down -1.86% and the XBI was down -4.42%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -2.16 points or -8.18% at 24.24
  • Thursday was down -0.44 points or -1.64% at 26.38
  • Wednesday was down -0.70 points or – 2.57% at 26.59
  • Tuesday was up +1.53 points or +5.85% at 27.70
  • Monday was up +1.51 points or +6.13% at 26.15

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 17):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$6.85 after Thursday’s -$4.16, Wednesday’s -$3.15, Tuesday’s -$5.06 and Monday’s -$1.58),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$2.20 after Thursday’s -$0.54, Wednesday’s +$0.65 and Tuesday’s +$0.46),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.50 after Thursday’s +$0.53, Wednesday’s +$2.71, Tuesday’s +$2.43 and Monday’s -$1.56),
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$1.26 after Thursday’s -$0.60),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.18 after Thursday’s +$0.47, Wednesday’s +$0.67 and Tuesday’s +$1.65),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.98 after Thursday’s -$0.98, Wednesday’s +$0.96 and Tuesday’s +$0.55),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.54 after Thursday’s -$0.85),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.32),
  • AxoGen (AXGN+$0.32 after Thursday’s -$0.27 and Wednesday’s -$0.03),

Closing down (10 of 16):

  • Biostage (BSTG -$1.00 after Thursday’s +$0.12, Wednesday’s +$1.33 after Tuesday’s +$0.03 and Monday’s -$1.189),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.49 after Thursday’s +$0.39),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.49 after Thursday’s -$0.97, Wednesday’s +$2.97 and Tuesday’s +$1.72),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.26 after Thursday’s +$0.06, Wednesday’s +$0.92 and Tuesday’s -$0.02),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.22 after Thursday’s +$0.14),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.13 after Thursday’s -$0.33),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.10)
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.08 after Thursday’s -$1.07, Wednesday’s +$1.75, Tuesday’s +$0.57 and Monday’s -$1.18)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.04),
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.03),

 

July, Q3/2022: this week

  • Friday closed positive with 17 incliner, 16 decliners and 2 flats
  • Thursday closed negative with 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 1 flat
  • Wednesday closed positive with 28 incliner and 7 decliners
  • Tuesday closed positive with 25 incliner and 10 decliners
  • Monday closed negative with 1 incliner, 33 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

Again, I felt the decline was coming as gravity played into the spiraling upside of the sector.

As I have been writing, “The cell and gene therapy sector whether we see or know it is getting squeezed in valuations.” Also, “We are up, down, up and down – it gets tiring! Portfolios are wailing, not crying yet, there is hope for some depressed equities.”

Volume is still low for and during the week.

AS I WROTE THIS A.M, “reversing some of the algo downslide curse. In these markets, we are always waiting for data from multiple sources.”

As I have been writing” There is VALUE out there however, it’s about playing or betting the timing of the sector. We are left with choosing to hang on to “our” portfolio position as it is a given that the sector shifts from fierce, sudden sell-offs to gaining altitude or ascending not to its value but, better than it was.

We always need a villain and they are multiplying – “Earnings’ season is coming, investors NEED to focus on LPS (loss-per-share), collaboration revenues and cash positions i.e., runways”.

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

TGIF

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.