July 18, 2022 4:43pm
Back to that pulsating and nerve-oriented word = sustainability – it should always be in your portfolio’s eye with the caveat “be more careful during uncertain times” - grab any upside while you can
Knew and felt, the downslide was coming
Pre-open indications: 1 MISS and 6 HiTs
WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions. Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?
No tunnel vision here, I get into the weeds of daily share pricing and causes
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed DOWN -215.65 points (-0.69%); the S&P closed DOWN -32.31 points (-0.84%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -92.37 points (-0.81%)
Henry’omics:
The stock market started the week strong after mixed earnings reports from banks but, began to waive as the afternoon progressed to close down.
“Monday’s moves in markets build on a rally Friday that saw stocks close sharply higher as Wall Street attempted to shake off losses from a turbulent week wrought by June’s shock CPI print. Still, all three major indexes closed the week lower.” <Yahoo Finance>
Another telling quote, “We anticipate volatility to remain elevated as the market toggles between pricing recession risk and soft-landing probabilities with each piece of data.” <Citi’s Scott Chronert>
Theme of the week, earnings expectations …
RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “It's a fickle sector near resistance levels” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12520
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …
- Monday advance/decline line opened positive at 29 up/ 4 down and 2 flats, turning negative with 15 up/19 and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 10/21 and 4 flats.
Pre-open Indications: 6 HITs < Biostage (BSTG $0.00 with 1,319 shares traded); SELL into Strength: Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.39), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$1.21), Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.22), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.57), uniQure NV (QURE -$0.22)> 1 MISS < Caribou Therapeutics (CRBU -$0.43)>
Key Metrics:
- Monday - Sector volume was HIGH with 4 of the 10-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 1 of 21-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Monday, the IBB was down -2.22% and the XBI was down -3.19%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Monday was up +1.15 points or +4.75% at 25.38
Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 10):
- Verve (VERV +$2.60 after Friday’s -$0.49),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.39 after Friday’s +$1.50),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.25 after Friday’s +$0.32),
- AxoGen (AXGN +$0.18 after Friday’s +$0.32),
- Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.15),
- Mesoblast (MESO +$0.055),
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM =$0.03 after Friday’s -$0.10)
- Precigen (PGEN +$0.01),
- Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.0094),
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.0056),
Closing down (10 of 21):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$4.75 after Friday’s +$6.85),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$4.03),
- Ultragenyx (RARE -$3.73),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$3.08 after Friday’s -$0.49),
- Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.22 after Friday’s +$1.18),
- Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$1.21 after Friday’s +$1.26),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.07),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.02),
- Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.60 after Friday’s -$0.26),
- Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.43 after Friday’s -$0.22),
Flat (4):
- Biostage (BSTG), Editas Medicine (EDIT), Verastem (VSTM), Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI)
July, Q3/2022:
- Monday closed negative with 10 incliner, 21 decliners and 4 flats
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
It's inevitable that some stocks will be sold in an up-ticking market. Volume is still low …
The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental metrics. Regrettably, this year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing some serious losses.
I realize that Baron Rothschild ONCE said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but I also caution that investors should first be sure they are buying into a sustainable share price.
However, what will the cell and gene therapy sector start to sniff out – earnings as Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) Q2 announcement on Thursday 7/28 and AxoGen (AXGN) on Wednesday, 8/3.
I find it very interesting to evaluate share price over earnings as a proxy for performance.
We always need a villain and they are multiplying – “Earnings’ season is coming, investors NEED to focus on LPS (loss-per-share), collaboration revenues and cash positions i.e., runways”.
I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
