July 19, 2022 4:56pm

Pray through this upturn, as the sector’s pricing valuations regain momentum  

Never forget the force of gravity in a dramatically ascendent market!

Pre-open indications: 3 MISS, 2 HITs and 1 Puff/Pump/Promote

WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions.  Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?

No tunnel vision here, I get into the weeds of daily share pricing and causes

 

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +752.10 points (+2.42%); the S&P closed UP +105.29 points (+2.75%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +353.10 points (+3.11%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes rallied Tuesday, with the market resuming a bounce from last month’s lows, as traders bet on strong corporate earnings reports, and wagered those markets have found a bottom.

Maybe, the market but NOT the cell and gene therapy sector!

Economic Data Docket: markets “absorbed a weaker-than-expected print in U.S. housing starts, which fell 2% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.559 million units”.

 

RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “shake, rattle and get rolled-over. Volatility is a fearful topic as earnings announcements begin.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12522

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Tuesday advance/decline line opened positive at 32 up/ 1 down and 2 flats, stayed positive with 34 up/1 at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 34/1 and 0 flat.
  • Monday advance/decline line opened positive at 29 up/ 4 down and 2 flats, turning negative with 15 up/19 and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 10/21 and 4 flats.

 

Pre-open Indications: 3 HITs < Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.72), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$4.42), Ultragenyx (RARE -$8.13)> 2 MISS < Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +0.19), Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$5.98)> 1 Puff/Pump/Promote: Biostage (BSTG +$0.01 with 300 shares traded)

 

Key Metrics:

  • Tuesday - Sector volume was LOW with 7 of the 34-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 0 of 1-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Tuesday, the IBB was up +2.57% and the XBI was up +4.45%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was down -0.62 points or -2.45% at 24.68

 

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 34):

  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$6.60 after Monday’s +$0.39),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$5.98 after Monday’s +$2.60),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$5.13 after Monday’s -$3.08),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$5.08 after Monday’s -$4.75),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$4.42 after Monday’s -$4.03),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$2.04),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.82 after Monday’s -$1.02),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$ after Monday’s -$1.07),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.72),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.26 after Monday’s -$1.22),

Closing down (1 of 1):

  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$8.28 after Monday’s -$3.73),

 

July, Q3/2022:

  • Tuesday closed positive with 34 incliner and 1 decliner
  • Monday closed negative with 10 incliner, 21 decliners and 4 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

The cell and gene therapy sector rallied with more than a few percent (%) yet, resistance levels limited a few multi-month highs in today trading, before pulling back in more than a few cases but, still remained positive.

investor pessimism and sentiment are existing just below the surface as earnings season approaches.

Volume is still low …

The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental metrics. Regrettably, this year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing some serious losses.

However, what will the cell and gene therapy sector start to sniff out – Q2 earnings as Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) on Thursday 7/28, Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) on 8/2; and AxoGen (AXGN) on Wednesday, 8/3.

investors should be bracing for a milder-than-usual earnings season and downwardly LPS (loss-per-share) predictions,

I find it very interesting to evaluate share price over earnings as a proxy for performance.

We always need a villain and they are multiplying – “Earnings’ season is coming, investors NEED to focus on LPS (loss-per-share), collaboration revenues and cash positions i.e., runways”.

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.