July 20, 2022 4:31pm

Impressed as algo “raiders” haven’t ambushed share pricings, they’re coming because there's a lot of pessimism just below sentiment’s surface

Pre-open indications: 1 MISS and 5 HITs

WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions.  Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?

No tunnel vision here, I get into the weeds of daily share pricing and causes

 

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +47.72 points (+0.15%); the S&P closed UP +23.13 points (+0.59%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +184.50 points (+1.58%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes rolled through any resistance

Biogen (BIIB) declined more than 6% despite posting a beat in its latest Q. BIIB warned that its revenue could take a hit from growing generic competition.

 

RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “hang-in or hang-on; decrease risk going forward? Hold, watch, lighten positions and then sell into dramatic share pricing strength.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12524

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Wednesday advance/decline line opened positive at 31 up/ 2 down and 1 flat, stayed positive with 27 /7 and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 28/6 and 1 flat.

 

Pre-open Indications: 5 HITs < Biostage (BSTG $0.00 with 21 shares traded), SELL into Strength: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.44), Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$3.62), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$3.30), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$0.32)> and 1 MISS < Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.65)>

 

Key Metrics:

  • Wednesday - Sector volume was LOW with 10 of the 28-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 3 of 6-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.26% and the XBI was up +1.42%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Wednesday was down -0.69 points or -2.82% at 23.81

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 28):

  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$3.62 after Tuesday’s +$5.98 and Monday’s +$2.60),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$3.30 after Tuesday’s +$6.60 and Monday’s +$0.39),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$2.87 after Tuesday’s +$5.13 and Monday’s -$3.08),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.84 after Tuesday’s -$8.28 and Monday’s -$3.73),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.49),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.16 after Tuesday’s +$1.26 and Monday’s -$1.22),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.84 after Tuesday’s +$5.08 and Monday’s -$4.75),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.65 after Tuesday’s +$1.72 after Monday’s -$1.07),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.55),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.39),

Flat:

  • Biostage (BSTG)

Closing down (6 of 6):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.44 after Tuesday’s +$4.42 and Monday’s -$4.03),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.27),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.13),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.10 after Tuesday’s +$1.72),
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.01),
  • Avrobio (AVRO -$0.0087),

 

July, Q3/2022:

  • Wednesday closed positive with 28 incliner, 6 decliners and 1 flat
  • Tuesday closed positive with 34 incliner and 1 decliner
  • Monday closed negative with 10 incliner, 21 decliners and 4 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

The cell and gene therapy sector built on Tuesday’s rally although percentage (%) movements were lower.

Volume is still low …

However, what will the cell and gene therapy sector start to sniff out – Q2 earnings as Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) on Thursday 7/28, Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) on 8/2; and AxoGen (AXGN), MiMedx (MDXG) and Vericel (VCEL) on Wednesday, 8/3.

investors should be bracing for a milder-than-usual earnings season and downwardly LPS (loss-per-share) predictions,

I find it very interesting to evaluate share price over earnings as a proxy for performance.

We always need a villain and they are multiplying – “Earnings’ season is coming, investors NEED to focus on LPS (loss-per-share), collaboration revenues and cash positions i.e., runways”.

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.