July 21, 2022 4:52pm
Portfolios are just hanging-on, as investors do not understand which way to turn as weak economic reports and greater inflationary pressures iterates those markets or the cell and gene therapy sector have yet to bottom
News: Vericel Corporation (VCEL +$0.50) publication of results from a retrospective study conducted by the Burn and Reconstructive Centers of America (BRCA) of 40 patients with large posterior trunk burns treated with Epicel® (cultured epidermal autografts) in the Journal of Burn Care & Research.
Pre-open indications: 2 MISS, 4 HITs and 1 Puff/Pump/Promote (the usual suspect Biostage (BSTG)
WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions. Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?
No tunnel vision here, I get into the weeds of daily share pricing and causes
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed UP +161.93 points (+0.51%); the S&P closed UP +39.20 points (+0.99%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +161.95points (+1.36%)
Indexes were up, “What you’re seeing in the market today is continued potential recovery, some continued potential optimism for numbers not being as bad as feared,” said Robert Cantwell, portfolio manager at Upholdings. “
All eyes are on the Fed meeting next week where policymakers are expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points. Fed rate decision next week will be followed by the Q2 U.S. GDP <gross domestic product> data, which is likely to be negative again. By one common rule of thumb, two (2) Qs of negative GDP growth would mean the U.S. is in a recession.
Economic Data Docket: New unemployment claims rose to 251,000 last week, up from 244,000 the previous week. This was above estimates for a drop to 240,000. It is another sign the labor market is cooling.
News continued: Vericel Corporation (VCEL +$0.50) Severe burns on posterior trunk surfaces present special consideration since the posterior surfaces bear the major portion of the body weight. The study evaluated the success of engraftment in patients receiving Epicel for posterior trunk burns with total burn surface area (TBSA) ≥30% treated at three high-volume burn centers within the BRCA between March 2016 and December 2019.
RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “the algos are coming, share pricing on a platter” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12527
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …
- Thursday advance/decline line opened negative at 13 up/ 19 down and 3 flats, stayed negative with 15 /18 and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 14/18 and 3 flats.
Pre-open Indications: 4 HITs < Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.97), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.39), Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.70), Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$3.10)> and 2 MISS < uniQure NV (QURE +$0.50), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.57)> 1 Puff/Pump/Promote < Biostage (BSTG $0.09 with 1, 018 shares traded)>
- Thursday - Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 14-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 2 of 18-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
Thursday, the IBB was up +0.94% and the XBI was down -0.38%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Thursday was down -0.85 points or -3.56% at 23.03
Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 14):
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.06 after Wednesday’s +$1.49),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.70),
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY =$0.64 after Wednesday’s +$0.84, Tuesday’s +$5.08 and Monday’s -$4.75),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.57 after Wednesday’s +$3.30, Tuesday’s +$6.60 and Monday’s +$0.39),
- Vericel (VCEL +$0.50 after Wednesday’s -$0.10 and Tuesday’s +$1.72),
- uniQure NV (QURE +$0.50 after Wednesday’s +$0.39),
- Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.16),
- Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.11),
- AxoGen (AXGN +$0.10),
- Biostage (BSTG +$0.09),
- Precigen (PGEN) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)
Closing down (10 of 18):
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$3.10 after Wednesday’s +$3.62, Tuesday’s +$5.98 and Monday’s +$2.60),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.39 after Wednesday’s -$1.44, Tuesday’s +$4.42 and Monday’s -$4.03),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.97 after Wednesday’s +$0.65, Tuesday’s +$1.72 after Monday’s -$1.07),
- Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.70 after Wednesday’s +$1.16, Tuesday’s +$1.26 and Monday’s -$1.22),
- Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.51 after Wednesday’s +$1.84, Tuesday’s -$8.28 and Monday’s -$3.73),
- Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.47),
- Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.36),
- Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.16),
- Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.11),
- bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.07),
- Thursday closed negative with 14 incliner, 18 decliners and 2 flats
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
As I wrote this a.m., the algos are coming like the Redcoats in Paul Revere’s warning.
The cell and gene therapy sector slimmed the leads from Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s rally although percentage (%) movements were lower.
Percentage (%) of the decliners (18) ebbed from -8.63% to -0.03% while the advancers (14) receded +6.84% to $0.44%.
Volume is still low …
However, what will the cell and gene therapy sector start to sniff out – Q2 earnings as Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) on Thursday 7/28, Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) on 8/2; and AxoGen (AXGN), MiMedx (MDXG) and Vericel (VCEL) on Wednesday, 8/3.
investors should be bracing for a milder-than-usual earnings season and downwardly LPS (loss-per-share) predictions,
I find it very interesting to evaluate share price over earnings as a proxy for performance.
We always need a villain and they are multiplying – “Earnings’ season is coming, investors NEED to focus on LPS (loss-per-share), collaboration revenues and cash positions i.e., runways”.
I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.