July 25, 2022 4:47pm

Weakness settles markets as the FOMC kicks off two-day policy meeting and GDP data is about to be released about a second quarter of decline

Pre-open indications: 2 MISS and 5 HITs

WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions.  Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?

No tunnel vision here, I get into the weeds of daily share pricing and causes 

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +90.71 points (+0.28%); the S&P closed UP +5.09 points (+0.13%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -51.45 points (-0.43%)

 

Henry’omics:

The Dow popped, the S&P stuttered while the Nasdaq lagged on Monday as investors braced for a Fed meeting during the week and earnings from some non-sector companies, while grappling with the impact of a strong dollar and soaring inflation.

Volume was lower on both the Nasdaq and the NYSE compared to Friday.

All of the major averages are on track for their best month of the year.

Economic Data Docket: The Fed is expected to deliver a 75 basis-point rate hike at the end of its two-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, effectively ending pandemic-era support for the U.S. economy.

 

RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “walking a tightrope of the oversold. As sentiment appears and disappears at our least convenience with electronic trading substituting for investor response; as we climb the wall of worry concerning multiple earnings including one from our own universe which will also include insights into up-coming interest rate hikes from the Fed.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12531

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Monday advance/decline line opened negative at 11 up/ 20 down and 4 flats, stayed negative with 6 up/28 and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 14/20 and 1 flat.

 

Pre-open Indications: 5 HITs < Biostage (BSTG -$0.45 with 974 shares traded), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.09), Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.40), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.45), Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.04)> 2 MISS < BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.94), Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.14)>

 

Key Metrics:

  • Monday - Sector volume was LOW with 0 of the 14-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 0 of 28-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Monday, the IBB was flat and the XBI was up +0.33%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Monday was up +0.47 points or +2.04% at 23.50

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (14 of 14):

  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.09 after Friday’s -$5.60),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.68 after Friday’s -$4.13),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.40),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.32 after Friday’s -$3.05),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.24),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.22),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.18 after Friday’s -$0.41),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.08),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.07),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.06),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.05),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.03),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.03),
  • Agenus (AGEN +$0.02),

Flat:

·         bluebird bio (BLUE)

Closing down (10 of 20):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.01 after Friday’s -$3.99),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.94 after Friday’s -$1.75),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.83 after Friday’s -$2.20),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.59),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.56 after Friday’s -$2.73),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.45 after Friday’s -$0.79),
  • Biostage (BSTG -$0.45 after Friday’s +$0.30),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.30 after Friday’s -$2.30),
  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT -$0.14 after Friday’s -$1.16),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapy (BCLI -$0.06),

 

July, Q3/2022:

  • Monday closed negative with 20 incliner, 14 decliners and 1 flat
  • Friday closed negative with 1 incliner and 34 decliners

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

Hers is a lot of anxiety and a lot of headwinds, but the good news is that expectations have been set much lower for earnings (the first sector company - ALNY to release) than they would have been last quarter ago

Sector expectations are really low as earnings season begins next week; remember, a little bit of good news can go a long way when you have low expectations.

Volume is still low …

The coming next two (2) weeks will reveal more about the cell and gene therapy sector's state of health.

However, what will the cell and gene therapy sector start to sniff out – Q2 earnings as Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) on Thursday 7/28, Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) on 8/2; and AxoGen (AXGN), MiMedx (MDXG) and Vericel (VCEL) on Wednesday, 8/3.

investors should be bracing for a milder-than-usual earnings season and downwardly LPS (loss-per-share) predictions,

I find it very interesting to evaluate share price over earnings as a proxy for performance.

We always need a villain and they are multiplying – “Earnings’ season is coming, investors NEED to focus on LPS (loss-per-share), collaboration revenues and cash positions i.e., runways”.

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.