July 27, 2022 4:40pm
A mixed picture of the cell and gene therapy sector as earnings season begins tomorrow with Ultragenyx (RARE) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) releases
Pre-open indications: 3 HITs and 0 MISS
Earnings: more sector companies (11) are announcing dates of releases <see Bottom Line>
WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions. Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?
No tunnel vision here, I get into the weeds of daily share pricing and causes
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed UP +436.05points (+1.37%); the S&P closed UP +102.50 points (+2.61%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +469.85 points (+4.06%)
Henry’omics:
U.S. equities and even the cell and gene therapy sector climbed Wednesday even as the Fed hiked.
Volume fell on the Nasdaq as compared to Tuesday; while the small-cap Russell 2000 index gained 0.9%.
Economic Data Docket: The Federal Reserve announced its much anticipated 0.75 percentage point rate increase to fight inflation, but hinted that it could slow the pace of its hiking campaign at some point.
“As the stance of monetary policy tightens further, it likely will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases while we assess how our cumulative policy adjustments are affecting the economy and inflation,” J Powell, Fed chair said.
RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “the Fed speaks today at 2 p.m.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12535
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …
- Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 16 up/ 17 down and 2 flats, ascended positive with 20 up/ 13 and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 31/4 and 0 flat.
Pre-open Indications: 3 HITs < Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.60), Verve Therapeutics (VEVR +$1.04) and Biostage (BSTG -$0.05 with 545 shares traded)> 0 MISS
Key Metrics:
- Wednesday - Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 31-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 1 of 4-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.92% and the XBI was up +2.58%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Wednesday was down -1.54 points or -6.24% at 23.15
Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of xx):
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$3.67 after Tuesday’s +$0.17 and Monday’s +$1.09),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$2.18 after Tuesday’s +$0.12 and Monday’s +$0.32),
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.97 after Tuesday’s -$1.20 and Monday’s -$2.01),
- Vericel (VCEL +$1.81 after Tuesday’s +$0.15 and Monday’s +$0.18),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.79 after Tuesday’s +$0.64 and Monday’s -$0.30),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.81 after Tuesday’s +$0.62 and Monday’s +$0.68),
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.05 after Tuesday’s +$0.57 and Monday’s +$0.03),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$1.04 after Tuesday’s -$1.27 and Monday’s -$0.83),
- uniQure NV (QURE +$0.98),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.89 after Tuesday’s -$0.12 and Monday’s -$0.94),
Closing down (4 of 4):
- Precigen (PGEN -$0.16),
- Biostage (BSTG -$0.05 after Tuesday’s $0.00 and Monday’s -$0.45),
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.011),
- Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.0001),
July, Q3/2022:
- Wednesday closed positive with 31 incliner and 4 decliners
- Tuesday closed negative with 13 incliner, 19 decliners and 3 flats
- Monday closed negative with 20 incliner, 14 decliners and 1 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
Thus, week has a lot of anxiety built-in also with a lot of headwinds, but the good news is that expectations have been set much lower for earnings than they would have been last quarter ago (the first sector company – Ultragenyx (RARE) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) to release – tomorrow 7/28).
Sector expectations are really low as earnings season begins next week; remember, a little bit of good news can go a long way when you have low expectations.
Volume is still low …
The coming next two (2) weeks will reveal more about the cell and gene therapy sector's state of health.
Next week … the cell and gene therapy sector earnings continue full-force – Q2 earnings: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) on 8/2; and AxoGen (AXGN), Editas Medicine (EDIT), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), MiMedx (MDXG) and Vericel (VCEL) on Wednesday, 8/3, Agenus (AGEN) and Intellia therapeutics (NTLA) on 8/4 followed by Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) on 8/9.
investors should be bracing for a milder-than-usual earnings season and downwardly LPS (loss-per-share) predictions,
I find it very interesting to evaluate share price over earnings as a proxy for performance.
We always need a villain and they are multiplying – “Earnings’ season is coming, investors NEED to focus on LPS (loss-per-share), collaboration revenues and cash positions i.e., runways”.
I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
