July 29, 2022 4:50pm

Pre-open indications: 6 HITs and 2 MISS

Earnings: Ultragenyx (RARE) update; <see Henry’omics>; RegMed Investors’ (RMI) Earnings: dates of releases … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12537

WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions.  Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?

No tunnel vision here, I get into the weeds of daily share pricing and causes 

TGIF as July ends, the olives have been marinating for the close


If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +315.50 points (+0.97%); the S&P closed UP +57.86 points (+1.42%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +228.10 points (+1.88%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes extended their July rebound on Friday, extended their two-day rally on Friday as investors digested strong tech earnings and looked past concerns about high inflation and a recessionary environment.

As the dollar and Treasury yields advanced, as traders acted on positive corporate news despite increased labor costs and other inflation indicators.

The major averages were also on pace for their best month of the year. The Dow is on track for a more than 6% gain for July, which would be its highest since March 2021. The S&P 500 is up by 8.8% for the month and the Nasdaq is up nearly 12%.

Both are looking at their biggest monthly gains since November 2020.

Economic Data Docket: The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that June’s personal consumption index climbed +1.1% in June and +6.8% in a 12-month basis. Also, the final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which came in at 51.5 for July. That’s a slight improvement over the preliminary reading and up from the June all-time low of 50.

  • A quote of Imminent danger, “"The tug of war on consumer purse strings is slowly being won by the bad guys: high inflation, rising borrowing costs, and dismal confidence," said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. "While elevated savings and higher wages are putting up a good fight, this battle will likely come down to whether companies slash their workforce."

Sector Earnings: Ultragenyx (RARE) a Q2 net loss of $158.2 M or $2.26 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.72. This compares to loss of $1.45 per share a year ago.  The Q2 release represents an earnings surprise of -31.40%. A quarter ago, it was expected to post a loss of $1.76 per share when it actually produced a loss of $2.19, delivering a surprise of -24.43%.  RARE posted revenues of $89.34 million for Q2, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.84%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $86.98 million.

·         RARE shares have lost about 39.6% since the beginning of the year.

 

RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “Finish the week and July with it. Follow the bouncing share pricings while riding the roller-coaster with no hands and screaming.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12540

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Friday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 5 up/ 29 down and 1 flat, stayed negative with 6 up/ 28 and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 6/28 and 1 flat.
  • Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 3 up/ 31 down and 1 flat, stayed negative with 12 up/ 22 and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 13/22 and 0 flat.
  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 16 up/ 17 down and 2 flats, ascended positive with 20 up/ 13 and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 31/4 and 0 flat.
  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 7 up/ 26 down and 2 flats, ascended positive with 26 up/7 and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 13/19 and 3 flats.
  • Monday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 11 up/ 20 down and 4 flats, stayed negative with 6 up/28 and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 14/20 and 1 flat.

 

Pre-open Indications: 6 HITs < Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG); Sell into Strength: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.42), BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.60), Vericel (VCEL +$0.94); Negative Indications: Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.62), Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$2.93)> 2 MISS < Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.48), Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.40)>  

 

Key Metrics:

  • Friday - Sector volume was LOW with 3 of the 6-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 3 of 28-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Thursday - Sector volume was LOW with 1 of the 13-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 0 of 22-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Wednesday - Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 31-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 1 of 4-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Tuesday - Sector volume was LOW with 1 of the 13-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 1 of 19-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
  • Monday - Sector volume was LOW with 0 of the 14-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 0 of 28-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was down -0.03% and the XBI was down -1.66%
  • Thursday, the IBB was up +0.10% and the XBI was down -1.12%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.92% and the XBI was up +2.58%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.20% and the XBI was up +0.43%
  • Monday, the IBB was flat and the XBI was up +0.33%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -0.93 points or -4.16% at 21.40
  • Thursday was down -0.87 points or -3.74% at 22.37
  • Wednesday was down -1.54 points or -6.24% at 23.15
  • Tuesday was up +1.55 points or +6.64% at 24.91
  • Monday was up +0.47 points or +2.04% at 23.50

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (6 of 6):

  • Ultragenyx (RGNX +$1.40 after Thursday’s +$1.07),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.94 after Thursday’s +$1.24, Wednesday’s +$1.81, Tuesday’s +$0.15 and Monday’s +$0.18),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.60 after Thursday’s +$1.10, Wednesday’s +$0.89, Tuesday’s -$0.12 and Monday’s -$0.94),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.25 after Thursday’s +$0.22 and Wednesday’s +$0.98),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.01),
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.0049),

Flat:

  • Biostage (BSTG $0.00 after Thursday’s +$0.50, Wednesday’s -$0.05, Tuesday’s $0.00 and Monday’s -$0.45),

Closing down (10 of 28):

  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$2.93 after Thursday’s -$2.00, Wednesday’s +$1.04, Tuesday’s -$1.27 and Monday’s -$0.83),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$2.70 after Thursday’s -$2.13, Wednesday’s +$3.67, Tuesday’s +$0.17 and Monday’s +$1.09),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.62 after Thursday’s -$1.02, Wednesday’s +$1.79, Tuesday’s +$0.64 and Monday’s -$0.30),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.48 after Thursday’s +$1.15, Wednesday’s +$1.97, Tuesday’s -$1.20 and Monday’s -$2.01),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.43 after Thursday’s +$0.35),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.96 after Thursday’s -$0.49, Wednesday’s +$1.05, Tuesday’s +$0.57 and Monday’s +$0.03),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.90 after Thursday’s -$3.03, Wednesday’s +$1.81, Tuesday’s +$0.62 and Monday’s +$0.68),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.90 after Thursday’s -$1.87, Wednesday’s +$2.18, Tuesday’s +$0.12 and Monday’s +$0.32),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.49 after Thursday’s -$0.44),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.42 after Thursday’s +$0.14),

 

July, Q3/2022:

  • Friday closed negative with 6 incliner, 28 decliners and 1 flat
  • Thursday closed negative with 13 incliner and 22 decliners
  • Wednesday closed positive with 31 incliner and 4 decliners
  • Tuesday closed negative with 13 incliner, 19 decliners and 3 flats
  • Monday closed negative with 20 incliner, 14 decliners and 1 flat
  • Friday closed negative with 1 incliner and 34 decliners
  • Thursday closed negative with 14 incliner, 18 decliners and 2 flats
  • Wednesday closed positive with 28 incliner, 6 decliners and 1 flat
  • Tuesday closed positive with 34 incliner and 1 decliner
  • Monday closed negative with 10 incliner, 21 decliners and 4 flats
  • Friday closed positive with 17 incliner, 16 decliners and 2 flats
  • Thursday closed negative with 12 incliner, 21 decliners and 1 flat
  • Wednesday closed positive with 28 incliner and 7 decliners
  • Tuesday closed positive with 25 incliner and 10 decliners
  • Monday closed negative with 1 incliner, 33 decliners and 1 flat
  • Friday closed positive with 22 incliners and 13 decliners
  • Thursday closed positive with 29 incliners, 5 decliners and 1 flat
  • Wednesday closed negative with 16 incliners and 19 decliners
  • Tuesday closed positive with 32 incliner and 3 decliners
  • Monday was a holiday
  • Friday (7/1) closed positive close with 26 incliners, 8 decliners and 1 flat.

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

I am STILL … NOT convinced the lows are in the cell and gene therapy sector.

Sector expectations are really low in further coming earnings season reporting; remember, a little bit of good news can go a long way when you have low expectations.

A split decision as ALNY reported a net loss as did RARE; yet ALNY dropped -$1.48 or -1.03% after reporting and RARE jumped +$1.40 or +2.70% the day after release.

Volume is still low …

The coming next two (2) weeks will reveal more about the cell and gene therapy sector's state of health.

Next week … the cell and gene therapy sector Q2 earnings continue full-force: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) on 8/2; and AxoGen (AXGN), Editas Medicine (EDIT), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), MiMedx (MDXG) and Vericel (VCEL) on Wednesday, 8/3, Agenus (AGEN) and Intellia therapeutics (NTLA) and Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) on 8/4 followed by Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT) on 8/8 before Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) on 8/9.

investors should be bracing for a milder-than-usual earnings season and downwardly LPS (loss-per-share) predictions,

I find it very interesting to evaluate share price over earnings as a proxy for performance.

We always need a villain and they are multiplying – “Earnings’ season is coming, investors NEED to focus on LPS (loss-per-share), collaboration revenues and cash positions i.e., runways”.

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.