August 8, 2022 5:03pm
As I asked this this a.m., “as the upside party rages on, is sector share pricing support solid?” The surge came, purged share pricing and the upside re-surfaced.
Pre-open indications: 1 HIT
WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions. Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?
No tunnel vision here, I get into the weeds of daily share pricing and causes
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed UP +28.45 points (+0.09%); the S&P closed DOWN -5.11 points (-0.12%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -13.10 points (-0.10%)
Indexes gave-up earlier gains closing basically FLAT on Monday, as investors shifted focus to a key inflation report this week.
An appropriate quote, “While it's clear the Fed needs to continue tightening policy, there are still about six weeks until the next meeting and we remind investors that economic data can change very quickly," said Robert Schein, chief investment officer, Blanke Schein Wealth Management.”
Biden’s legislation: The Senate won’t return from its summer recess until Sept. 6, but when it does, it officially has 18 business days to finalize the reauthorization of the FDA user fee programs for the next 5 years, or else thousands of drug and biologics reviewers will be laid off and PDUFA dates will vanish in the interim. <Endpoints News https://endpts.com/with-drug-pricing-almost-done-congress-looks-to-wrap-up-fda-user-fee-legislation/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=135%20-%20Senate%20passes%20historic%20drug%20pricing%20reforms%20BioNTech%20earnings%20disappoint%20Basic&utm_content=135%20-%20Senate%20passes%20historic%20drug%20pricing%20reforms%20BioNTech%20earnings%20disappoint%20Basic+CID_07fa68e9af927434719b6ee626527d26&utm_source=ENDPOINTS%20emails&utm_term=With%20drug%20pricing%20almost%20done%20Congress%20looks%20to%20wrap%20up%20FDA%20user%20fee%20legislation
RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “as the upside party rages on, is sector share pricing support solid?” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12552
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …
Monday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 22 up/ 11 down and 2 flats, flipped negative with 9 up/24 and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a barely positive close of 17/16 and 2 flats.
Pre-open Indications: 1 HITs <Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG $0.00 with 92 shares traded);
- Monday - Sector volume was HIGHER with 9 of the 17-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 3 of 16-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Monday, the IBB was up +0.45% and the XBI was up +1.73%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Monday was up +0.32 points or +1.51% at 21.47
Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 17):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$12.16 after Friday’s -$5.47),
- Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT +$2.76 after Friday’s +$15.85),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.07 after Friday’s +$3.61),
- bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.75 after Friday’s +$1.01),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.72 after Friday’s +$0.87),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.50 after Friday’s +$0.57),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM =$0.26 after Friday’s +$0.55),
- MiMedx (MDXG +$0.25),
- Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.19),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.17 after Friday’s -$2.11),
- Mesoblast (MESO) and Biostage (BSTG)
Closing down (10 of 16):
- uniQure NV (QURE -$6.90 after Friday’s +$054),
- Ultragenyx (RARE -$2.97 after Friday’s -$0.17),
- Vericel (VCEL -$0.93),
- Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.78 after Friday’s -$0.54),
- Editas Medicine (-$0.29),
- Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.24),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.23),
- AxoGen (AXGN -$0.17),
- Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.10 after Friday’s -$0.01),
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.09),
- Monday closed barely positive with 17 incliner, 16 decliners and 2 flats
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
More net and per share losses but, all are in a development status, or are they? SG&A’s are, I believe “OUT-OF-CONTROL”, CEOs are skimming shareholders with HIGH salaries and perks as share pricing gets hammered on alternate sessions.
The real question is how recently have CEOs bought-into their depreciated share pricing such as two: AVRO and AGTC.
As I have “noticed” yet again from to date reporting, “Most reporting sector companies … to date have reported net losses, lagging revenue estimates … although AXGN, FATE, RGNX and NTLA beat on revenues generating forward motion while ATM use is up.”
As I had writing … “I am STILL … skeptical that Tuesday through Friday’s rally can be sustain! I am also NOT convinced that the lows are in the cell and gene therapy sector are behind us.”
And it was true as the sky was blue in the east coast.
Last week, the sector rally has run up four (4) sessions with most of the advances coming on relatively light volume (9 0f 23 up – today).
Meanwhile, a lot of leading stocks or potential leaders became the “recipient” a breather – “the algos are STILL salivating” for the leaders of today’s 17 upside.
Although, I’m STILL a firm believer in the flight of Icarus … since the cell and gene therapy equities have oscillated between gains and losses since the first of the year... a bigger “slip” is on the way – maybe NOT today but, it’s coming!
Hold-on (to the railing) as our portfolios weather these volatile sessions as an ordinary practice.
The coming weeks will reveal more about the cell and gene therapy sector's state of health.
This week, the cell and gene therapy sector Q2 earnings continue full-force: Agenus (AGEN), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) on 8/9 and Brainstorm cell Therapeutics (BCLI) on 8/15.
I find it very interesting to evaluate share price over earnings and a shortage of revenue reporting as a proxy for performance.
We always need a villain and they are multiplying – We are stuck in “Earnings’ season, investors NEED to focus on LPS (loss-per-share), collaboration revenues and cash positions i.e., runways”.
I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.
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Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
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