August 10, 2022 4:35pm

Pre-open indications: 6 HIT and 3 MISS

WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions.  

Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?

No tunnel vision here, I get into the weeds of daily share pricing and causes 

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +535.10 points (+1.63%); the S&P closed UP +87.77 points (+2.13%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +360.88 points (+2.89%)

 

Henry’omics:

Stocks rose sharply on Wednesday after a key inflation reading showed a better-than-expected slowdown for rising prices.

Volume was mixed, falling on the Nasdaq versus the same time Tuesday.

Economic Data Docket: Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated prices paid by consumers rose 8.5% last month over the year, reflecting a moderation from June's 40-year high of 9.1%. Consensus economists were expecting last month's reading to show an 8.7% increase, according to estimates. <Bloomberg>

 

RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “the tug-of-war as Wednesday's inflation report could be a short-term catalyst.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12556

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 30 up/ 4 down and 1 flat, stayed positive with 31 up/3 and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 30/4 and 1 flat.

 

Pre-open Indications: 6 HITs <Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG $0.00 with 1620 shares traded), AxoGen (AXGN +$0.56), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$3.74), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$4.77); Sell into Strength: Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$3.59) – a profit tic; Vericel (VCEL -$0.28). 3 MISS < Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$8.63), BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$3.82), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$6.13)

 

Key Metrics:

  • Wednesday - Sector volume was MODERATE with 10 of the 30-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 2 of 4-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Wednesday, the IBB was up +2.41% and the XBI was up +3.31%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Wednesday was down -2.03 points or -9.23% at 19.74

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 30):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$8.63 after Tuesday’s -$7.37 and Monday’s +$12.16),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$6.13 after Tuesday’s -$3.08 and Monday’s +$0.17),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$4.77 after Tuesday’s -$2.73 and Monday’s +$0.26),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$3.82),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$3.74 after Tuesday’s -$6.26),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$3.59 after Tuesday’s +$1.17 and Monday’s +$0.50),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.85 after Tuesday’s -$1.45),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$1.16),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$1.02 after Tuesday’s -$1.00),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.79 after Tuesday’s -$1.26 and Monday’s -$2.97),

Flat:

  • Biostage (BSTG)

Closing down (3 of 3):

  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.42 after Tuesday’s -$1.30 and Monday’s +$0.72),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.28 after Tuesday’s -$2.41 and Monday’s -$0.93),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.02),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.0117 after Tuesday’s +$0.0107),

 

August, Q3/2022:

  • Wednesday closed positive with 30 incliner, 4 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

Indexes rallied more than 1% on Wednesday after data showed U.S. inflation slowed more than expected in July and raised hopes the Federal Reserve will cut back on aggressively boosting interest rates.

The data was the first notable sign of relief for cell and gene therapy sector investors who watched “our’ universe “pooped the bed” yesterday.

There are ONLY net and per share losses in Q2. SG&A’s are, I believe “OUT-OF-CONTROL”, CEOs are skimming shareholders with HIGH salaries and perks as share pricing gets hammered on alternate sessions.

The real question is how recently have CEOs bought-into their depreciated share pricing such as two: AVRO and AGTC.

As I have “noticed” yet again from to date reporting, “Most reporting sector companies … to date have reported net losses, lagging revenue estimates … although AXGN, FATE, RGNX and NTLA beat on revenues generating forward motion while ATM use is up.”

 I was proven RIGHT after having written … “I am STILL … skeptical that Tuesday through Friday’s rally can be sustain! I am also NOT convinced that the lows are in the cell and gene therapy sector are behind us.”

I’m STILL a firm believer in the “flight of Icarus” …  since the cell and gene therapy equities have oscillated between gains and losses since the first of the year... the big “slip” came yesterday, Tuesday 8/9 which was made-up on today, Wednesday!

The coming weeks will reveal more about the cell and gene therapy sector's state of health.

This week, the cell and gene therapy sector Q2 earnings continue full-force: 29 or 35 have reported, Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) on 8/15.

I find it very interesting to evaluate share price over earnings and a shortage of revenue reporting as a proxy for performance.

We always need a villain and they are multiplying – We are stuck in “Earnings’ season, investors NEED to focus on LPS (loss-per-share), collaboration revenues and cash positions i.e., runways”.

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.