August 23, 2022 5:13pm

The bounce had to happen, expect further volatility

The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: they’re pumping the volume and pricing again <+$0.45 with 1,249 shares traded>. Thank you, Beijing, China?

News: Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$6.31) announced “interim clinical data” of a P1/2 abstract study of NTLA-2002 taking place September 15-16 in Berlin, Germany. NTLA-2002 is an investigational in vivo CRISPR/Cas9 therapy in development as a single-dose treatment to prevent angioedema attacks in people living with hereditary angioedema (HAE). A reach until 9/15-16/22 … define the data!

Pre-open indications: 3 HIT and 4 MISS

WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions.  Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?

No tunnel vision here, this analyst/journalist gets into the weeds of daily share pricing and root causes

 

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed DOWN -154.02 points (-0.47%); the S&P closed DOWN -9.27 points (-0.22%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN – 0.27 points (-0.00 %)

 

Henry’omics:

The Dow fell, the S&P dived as the Nasdaq muddled upward on Tuesday following its worst day since June as investors braced for an if-so hawkish message from the Fed.

Traders are coming off a downbeat session, as a summer rally fizzled out amid mounting rate hike concerns.

 

RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “Waiting for Jerome, the play; will he hike (75 basis points) of just put his finger in the dike (50 basis points)? The real question that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments leash? Start by looking at cell and gene therapy companies trading below cash!” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12574

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 19 up/ 15 down and 1 flat, stayed positive with 21 up/12 and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 26/7 and 2 flats.

 

Pre-open Indications: 3 HITs <Sell into Strength:  Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.11), Positive Indications: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.35), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.20)> 4 MISS < Biostage (BSTG +$0.45 with 1,249 shares traded), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.02), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$2.83), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.34)>

 

Key Metrics:

  • Tuesday - Sector volume was LOW with 7 of the 27-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 1 of 7-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Tuesday, the IBB was down -0.19% and the XBI was UP +2.15 %

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was up +0.31 points or +1.30% at 24.11

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 27):

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$6.31 after Monday’s -$2.05),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$4.04 after Monday’s -$0.75),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM+$2.83 after Monday’s -$1.88),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.35 after Monday’s -$2.25),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.95),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.56),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.56),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.54 after Monday’s -$0.88),
  • Biostage (BSTG +$0.45 after Monday’s $0.00, Friday’s $0.00, Thursday’s -$0.15, Wednesday’s +$0.15, and last Tuesday’s $0.00),

Flat (2):

  • Biostage (BSTG) AND Cellectis SA (CLLS)

Closing down (7 of 7):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.02 after Monday’s +$1.94),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.49 after Monday’s -$2.56),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.16 after Monday’s +$0.02),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.08),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.02),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.02),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.0176),

 

August, Q3/2022:

  • Tuesday closed positive with 27 incliner, 7 decliners and 2 flats
  • Monday closed negative with 7 incliner, 27 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

There are NO clear winners but, a lot of losers since the start of August.

As I questioned this a.m., “The real question that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments leash? Start by looking at cell and gene therapy companies trading below cash!”  A good read by Simply Wall Street, Investors five-year losses grow to 64% as the stock sheds US$34m this past week

August is revealing more about the ill health of the cell and gene therapy sector.

The cell and gene therapy sector is STILL experiencing the “flight of Icarus” …  since “our” universe have oscillated between gains and losses since the first of the year!

There are really three camps, electronic algorithms, traders versus investors who STILL don’t comprehend if the worst is behind us and those “entities” that continue to sell into selloffs.

There are ONLY net and per share losses in Q2. SG&A’s are, I believe “OUT-OF-CONTROL”, CEOs are skimming shareholders with HIGH salaries and perks as share pricing gets hammered on alternate sessions.

The real question is how recently have CEOs bought-into their depreciated share pricing such as two: AVRO and AGTC.

As I have “noticed” yet again from to date reporting, “Most reporting sector companies … to date have reported net losses, lagging revenue estimates … although AXGN, FATE, RGNX, FIXX and NTLA beat on revenues generating forward motion while ATM use is up.”

I find it very interesting to evaluate share price over earnings and a shortage of revenue reporting as a proxy for share pricing performance.

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.