August 24, 2022 4:43pm
As I stated Tuesday, “The bounce had to happen after multiple down sessions, expect further volatility.” I also believe many of these sector valuations are unsustainable while algorithms are salivating!
The Biostage (BSTG) Chronicles: they’re BACK PUMPING the volume and pricing again <+$2.20 (+44% - out of nowhere) with 13,882 shares traded after Tuesday’s +$0.45 with 1,249 shares traded>. Is the stock reverse of past PPMs begun? Question, should we say thank you to DST and its funder in Beijing, China for “buying-in and listening-in”?
Pre-open indications: 2 MISS and 1 Pump/Promote
WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions. Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?
No tunnel vision here, this analyst/journalist gets into the weeds of daily share pricing and root causes
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed UP +59.64 points (+0.18%); the S&P closed UP +12.04 points (+0.29%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +50.23 points (+0.41%)
Henry’omics:
Wednesday the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq gained upside traction following Tuesday’s and Monday’s declines after many declining sessions since June “as investors braced for an if-so hawkish message from the Fed” on Friday morning.
A quote to be seriously considered, “Federal Reserve bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari says his biggest fear is that markets are underestimating how high inflation will go or how persistent it would be, adding that the Fed might need to be more aggressive than anticipated”.
· “The big fear I have at the back of my mind is if we’re wrong and markets are wrong, and that this inflation is much more embedded at a much higher level than we appreciate or markets appreciate,” he said, commenting on market expectations of inflation coming back down to 2% within the next two years. <CNBC>
Economic Data Docket: jobless claims on Thursday and the personal consumption expenditures price index on Friday. The Fed keeps a close eye on the PCE report.
RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “markets and sector will remain volatile” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12576
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …
- Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 29 up/ 6 down and 0 flat, stayed positive with 21 up/12 and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 31/3 and 1 flat.
Pre-open Indications: 0 Hits, 2 MISS < Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$5.36), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.05)> and 1 Pump/Promote <Biostage (BSTG +$0.45 with 1,249 shares traded),>
Key Metrics:
- Wednesday - Sector volume was LOW with 6 of the 31-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 1 of 3-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume;
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Wednesday, the IBB was up +1.36% and the XBI was UP +2.11 %
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Wednesday was down -1.24 points or -5.14% at 22.87
Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 31):
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$5.60 after Tuesday’s +$2.83, Monday’s -$1.88),
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$4.11 after Tuesday’s -$1.02 and Monday’s +$1.94),
- Ultragenyx (RARE +$3.39 after Tuesday’s +$0.54, Monday’s -$0.88),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$3.35 after Tuesday’s +$4.04 and Monday’s -$0.75),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$3.27 after Tuesday’s +$2.35 and Monday’s -$2.25),
- Biostage (BSTG +$2.20 after Tuesday’s +$0.45 after Monday’s $0.00, Friday’s $0.00, Thursday’s -$0.15, and last Wednesday’s +$0.15 following the previous Tuesday’s $0.00),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.82 after Tuesday’s +$6.31 and Monday’s -$2.05),
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.54 after Tuesday’s +$0.56),
- uniQure NV (QURE +$1.28),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.09)
Flat (1):
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM)
Closing down (3 of 3):
- Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.02),
- MiMedx (MDXG -$0.01),
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.0025 after Tuesday’s -$0.0176)
August, Q3/2022:
- Wednesday closed positive with 31 incliner, 3 decliners and 1 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
What changes the sector rolled up after multiple down sessions; there are more clear winners after a five (50 session degrade than losers so far, this week.
As I questioned this a.m., “The real question that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments leash? Start by looking at cell and gene therapy companies trading below cash!” A good read by “Simply Wall Street”, Investors five-year losses grow to 64% as the stock sheds US$34m this past week
Statistically speaking, long term investing is a profitable endeavor. But that doesn't mean long term investors can avoid big losses. For example, the Verastem (VSTM) share price dropped 64% over five years. … https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-five-losses-grow-64-162345509.html
The cell and gene therapy sector is STILL experiencing the “flight of Icarus” … since “our” universe have oscillated between gains and losses since the first of the year!
New peaks will just increase the appetite of electronic trading and algorithms.
There are really three camps, electronic algorithms, traders versus investors who STILL don’t comprehend if the worst is behind us and those “entities” that continue to focus on tailwinds and not headwinds?
There are ONLY net and per share losses in Q2. SG&A’s are, I believe “OUT-OF-CONTROL”, CEOs are skimming shareholders with HIGH salaries and perks as share pricing gets hammered on alternate sessions.
The real question is how recently have CEOs bought-into their depreciated share pricing such as two: AVRO and AGTC.
As I have “noticed” yet again from to date reporting, “Most reporting sector companies … to date have reported net losses, lagging revenue estimates … although AXGN, FATE, RGNX, FIXX and NTLA beat on revenues generating forward motion while ATM use is up.”
I find it very interesting to evaluate share price over earnings and a shortage of revenue reporting as a proxy for share pricing performance?
I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
