September 12, 2022 6:26pm

While (I believe) irrational exuberance drove the indexes to the upside

Pre-open indications: 4 HIT and 6 MISS

WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions.  

Who else is tracking a broad grouping of cell and gene therapy equities – can you afford to not read facts supported by real numbers?

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst, venture and public fund investor now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +229.63 points (+0.71) the S&P closed UP +43.05 points (+1.06%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +154.10 points (+1.27%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes rose on Monday as a weaker dollar and growing confidence that inflation has peaked helped the relief rally continue.

Economic data Docket: The consumer price index is due out Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. It’s expected to show that prices excluding food and fuel rose 0.3% from July and 6% from a year ago. Including those two sectors, so-called headline CPI is projected to decline 0.1% for the month but still be up 8% on an annual basis. It will be the second month in a row with little change, after July showed prices flat. But for core, it would be the second straight month of a 0.3% increase.

 

RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “to SELL or to BUY? Is a big dive coming; does low volume forecast the moves? The coming CPI and PPI reporting “attractions” present a cautionary threat to cell and gene therapy equities.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12598

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Monday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 12 up/ 22 down and 1 flat, stayed negative with 15 up/19 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 21/14 and 0 flat.

 

Pre-open Indications: 4 HITs <Biostage (BSTG -$0.10), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.34), Vericel (VCEL -$0.33), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$11.27)> 6 MISS <Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.82), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.86), Caribou Therapeutics (CRBU +$1.29), Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.02), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.76), Beam therapeutics (BEAM +$0.07)

 

Key Metrics:

  • Monday - Sector volume was LOW with 7 of the 21-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 2 of 14-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Monday, the IBB was up +0.18% and the XBI was up +0.76%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Monday was up +1.08 points or +4.74% at 23.87

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 21):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.86 after Friday’s +$0.69),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS =$1.82 after Friday’s +$2.57),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$1.29 after Friday’s -$0.42),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.02 after Friday’s -$0.16),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.76 after Friday’s +$3.72),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.52),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.24 after Friday’s +$0.41),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.21),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.17),

Closing down (14 of 14):

  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.23 after Friday’s -$1.11),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.33 after Friday’s +$0.77),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.46 after Friday’s +$1.51),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$11.27 after Friday’s -$3.03 and a debt security raise),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.12 after Friday’s -$0.08),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.11 after Friday’s +$0.61),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.11 after Friday’s -$0.03),
  • Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG -$0.10 after Friday’s +$0.06),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.09),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.05 after Friday’s +$1.27),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.04 after Friday’s +$0.82
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.0147),
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.0127),
  • Avrobio (AVRO -$0.0025),

 

September, Q3/2022:

  • Monday closed positive with 21 incliner, 14 decliners and 0 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

September started with 1 holiday, 5 positive and 2 negative closes; August is over with 1 neutral, 11 positive and 11 negative closes while last week which ended the month.

Despite gains in recent sessions, the sector’s volatility outlook is an "uptrend under pressure."

As I stated, time to take PROFITS …

As I continually question, “The real question that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

Start by looking at cell and gene therapy companies trading below cash!” 

Repeating myself, “I find it very interesting to evaluate share price over earnings and a shortage of revenue reporting as a proxy for share pricing performance?”

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.