September 30, 2022 5:38pm

NO positive catalysts drove up the cell and gene therapy equities through the end of the Friday session

Pre-open indications: 2 HITs, 1 MISS and 1 BUY Bottom – Agenus (AGEN)

WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions.

No tunnel vision here, this analyst/journalist gets into the weeds of daily share pricing and root causes.

Why do I keep writing this blog/newsletter; to inform investors, what others won’t say or write!

The week in review as the month and Q3 ends

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed DOWN – 500.10 points (-1.71), the S&P closed DOWN -54.85 points (-1.51%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -161.89 points (-1.61%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes were sloppy and down Friday as traders looked to close out a terrible week that brought the S&P 500 to a new 2022 low and the Nasdaq was 0.15% lower.

For the week, the S&P 500 slid -2.9%, followed by the Dow tumbled -2.9%, as the Nasdaq fell 2.7%.

For the month and the third quarter. For September, the S&P 500 dived -9.3% and the Dow fell -8.8% and the Nasdaq slipped -10.5% through Thursday’s close. The Nasdaq’s monthly loss since April, losing 9.1%.

For the quarter, the S&P 500 was -5.3% following the Nasdaq at -4.1% and the Dow is down -6/7% and is on pace to post a third-straight losing quarter for the first time since 2015.

Economic Data Docket: The Fed's preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditure price index, rose 0.3% in August, marking a 6.2% year-over-year increase. Both numbers were hotter than expected. The August core PCE Price Index rose 4.9% from last year, and 0.6% on the month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported.

 

Largest volume of the session:

  • bluebird bio (BLUE) Friday traded 7.516 million shares (+$0.63) <average 3 mo. volume = 8,179 million shares>

 

RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “liquidity, an issue as month and Q3 close, the efficiency or ease with which a security can be sold into cash without affecting its market price”; just don't jump at the first uptick.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12628

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Friday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 32 up/ 2 down and 1 flat, stayed positive with 32 up/ 2 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 20/15 and 0 flat.
  • Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 4 up/ 30 down and 1 flat, stayed negative with 3 up/ 31 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 3/31 and 1 flat.
  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 28 up/ 5 down and 2 flats, stayed positive with 30 up/ 5 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 29/4 and 2 flats.
  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 31 up/ 3 down and 1 flat, stayed positive with 27 up/7 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 28/5 and 2 flats.
  • Monday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 27 up/ 7 down and 1 flat, flipped negative with 6 up/28 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 5/30 and 0 flat.

 

Pre-open Indications: 1 Favorite <Agenus (AGEN -$0.01) - BUY bottom> 2 HITs < Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.14), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.86)> 1 MISS <Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.86)> 1 Pump/Promote < Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG +$0.10)>

 

Key Metrics:

  • Friday - Sector volume was LOW with 3 of the 30-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 4 of 15-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
  • Thursday - Sector volume was LOW with 1 of the 3-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 12 of 31-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
  • Wednesday - Sector volume was LOW with 14 of the 29-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 2 of 4-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
  • Tuesday - Sector volume was LOW with 3 of the 28-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 2 of 5-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
  • Monday - Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 5-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 2 of 30-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was down -0.54% and the XBI was up +0.0.58%
  • Thursday, the IBB was down -1.45% and the XBI was down -2.88%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was up +3.93% and the XBI was up +5.14%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was up +1.23% and the XBI was up +2.88%
  • Monday, the IBB was down -1.51% and the XBI was down -2.07%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -0.22+ points or -0.69% at 31.62
  • Thursday was up +1.60 points or +5.30% at 31.78
  • Wednesday was down -2.16 points or -6.63% at 30.44
  • Tuesday was up +0.70 points or +2.17% at 32.96
  • Monday was up +2.26 points or +7.55% at 32.18

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 20):

  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.51 after Thursday’s +$0.25, Wednesday +$1.48, Tuesday’s +$0.90 and Monday’s -$0.57)
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +0.86),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.86 after Thursday’s -$2.45, Wednesday’s +$3.31, Tuesday’s +$2.53 and Monday’s -$2.05),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.84 after Thursday’s -$0.94),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.67 after Thursday’s -$3.35, Wednesday’s +$2.61, Tuesday’s +$1.83 and Monday’s +$0.28),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.63),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.25),
  • Chinook therapeutics (KDNY +$0.19),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.15),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.14 after Thursday’s -$3.52, Wednesday’s +$2.61 and Tuesday’s +$1.85),

Closing down (10 of 15):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$9.23 after Thursday’s -$1.47, Wednesday’s +$8.15, Tuesday’s +$5.22 and Monday’s -$3.39),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.92),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.55 after Thursday’s -$1.15 after Wednesday’s +$1.26),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.44 after Thursday’s -$0.63, Wednesday’s +$1.67, Tuesday’s +$0.50 and Monday’s -$0.83),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.09 after Thursday’s -$0.70),
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.08 after Thursday’s -$0.025)
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.05),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.04),
  • Avrobio (AVRO -$0.03 after Thursday’s +$0.0191),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.02),

 

September, Q3/2022

Friday (9/30) closed positive with 20 incliner, 15 decliners and 0 flat

Thursday closed negative with 3 incliner, 31 decliners and 1 flat

Wednesday closed positive with 29 incliner, 4 decliners and 2 flats

Tuesday closed positive with 28 incliner, 5 decliners and 2 flats

Monday closed negative with 5 incliner, 30 decliners and 0 flat

Friday (9/23) closed negative with 3 incliners, 32 decliners and 0 flat

Thursday closed negative with 5 incliner, 29 decliners and 1 flat

Wednesday closed negative with 4 incliners, 30 decliners and 1 flat

Tuesday closed negative with 9 incliner, 26 decliners and 0 flat

Monday closed negative with 9 incliner, 26 decliners and 0 flat

Friday (9/16) closed negative with 6 incliners, 28 decliners and 1 flat

Thursday closed positive with 25 incliner, 10 decliners and 0 flat

Wednesday closed positive with 24 incliner, 10 decliners and 1 flat

Tuesday closed negative with 3 incliner, 32 decliners and 0 flat

Monday closed positive with 21 incliner, 14 decliners and 0 flat

Friday (9/9) closed positive with 21 incliner, 14 decliners and 0 flat

Thursday closed positive with 30 incliner, 5 decliners and 0 flat

Wednesday closed positive with 28 incliner, 6 decliners and 1 flat

Tuesday closed negative with 8 incliner, 25 decliners and 2 flats

Monday was a holiday

Friday (9/2) closed negative with 8 incliners, 26 decliners and 1 flat 

Thursday closed positive with 22 incliners, 12 decliners and 1 flat 

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I was right again …as I WAS concerned that the cell and gene therapy sector was OVERBOUGHT on Wednesday!

Cell and gene therapy equities ended the Friday in the GREEN after Thursday’s RED after a GREEN Wednesday, a Tuesday’s GREEN after a RED Monday – after a break from the 7X downslides in a row!

I try to keep it simple … and short!

Given today’s market dramatic upside was driven by electronic trading and algorithms.

The end of Q3 is HERE and October has NEVER been a good month for equities.

September continued with 1 holiday, 11 positive and 11 negative closes; August is over with 1 neutral, 11 positive and 11 negative closes while last week which ended the month.

As I continually question, “The real question that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

Start by looking at cell and gene therapy companies trading below cash!” 

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.