October 4, 2022 4:37pm

Will it stay up with a follow-on or collapse on quarter-end rebalancing?

Pre-open indications: 8 HITs and 2 MISS

WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions.

No tunnel vision here, this analyst/journalist gets into the weeds of daily share pricing and root causes.

Why do I keep writing this blog/newsletter; to inform investors, what others won’t say or write

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +826.09 points (+2.80), the S&P closed UP +112.62 points (+3.06%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +360.97 points (+3.34%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes surged Tuesday as indexes have had a strong start to the month.

All of the major indexes are now each about 5% above their lows of the year.

Economic Data Docket: The level of job openings plunged by more than a million in August, providing a potential early sign that the massive U.S. labor gap is beginning to close. Available positions totaled 10.05 million for the month, a 10% drop from the 11.17 million reported in July, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics release Tuesday. That was also well below the 11.1 million. The number of hires rose slightly, while total separations jumped by 182,000. Quits, or those who left their jobs voluntarily, rose by 100,000 for the month to 4.16 million. <FactSet estimate>

 

Largest volume of the session:

bluebird bio (BLUE) Tuesday traded 6.683 million shares (+$0.66) after Monday traded 5.405 million shares (-$0.20) after Friday traded 7.516 million shares (+$0.63) <average 3 mo. volume = 8,235 million shares> So, when will an offering be proposed?

 

RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “buy a few dips and a mixed bag of indications. Will the trend be our friend – can investors continue to rally?” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12633

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 27 up/ 6 down and 2 flats, stayed positive with 27 up/ 8 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 30/5 and 0 flat.
  • Monday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 23 up/ 12 down and 0 flat, stayed positive with 20 up/15 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 19/15 and 1 flat.

 

Pre-open Indications: 8 Hits < Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG -$0.39), Agenus (AGEN +$0.12), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$3.71), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.57), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$5.05), Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.015), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.98), uniQure NV (QURE +$0.75)> 2 MISS < Verastem (VSTM -$0.305), Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.41)

 

Key Metrics:

  • Tuesday - Sector volume was HIGHER with 14 of the 30-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with HIGHER volume of 4 of 5-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
  • Monday - Sector volume was LOW with 6 of the 19-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with HIGHER volume of 7 of 15-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Tuesday, the IBB was up +2.86% and the XBI was up +3.79%
  • Monday, the IBB was up +1.95% and the XBI was up +0.83%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was down -0.95 points or -3.16% at 29.15
  • Monday was down -1.52 points or -4.81% at 30.10

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 30):

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$5.05 after Monday’s -$0.13),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$4.45 after Monday’s -$3.37),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$3.71 after Monday’s +$0.25),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$2.69 after Monday’s -$0.58),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.57 after Monday’s -$2.25),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$2.31 after Monday’s -$0.94),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.64 after Monday’s +$0.43),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.20 after Monday’s -$0.76),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.16 after Monday’s +$0.26),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.98 after Monday’s -$0.29),

Closing down (5 of 5):

  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.57 after Monday’s -$2.26)
  • Biostage (BSTG -$0.39 after Monday’s -$0.71),
  • Verastem (VSTM -$0.305),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.15)
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.08,

 

Q4 - October

  • Tuesday closed positive with 30 incliner, 5 decliners and 0 flat
  • Monday closed positive with 19 incliner, 15 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

What do I say – thank you for the upside move.

Monday and today’s market dramatic upside were driven by electronic trading and algorithms.

How long will this rebound last … I’d be cutting positions on Wednesday!

Let’s see what October brings – Q3 earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season and a whole lot of economic indicators.

October has NEVER been a good month for equities.

October has 2 positive closes; September continued with 1 holiday, 11 positive and 11 negative closes; August is over with 1 neutral, 11 positive and 11 negative closes while last week which ended the month.

As I continually question, “The real question that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

Start by looking at cell and gene therapy companies trading below cash!” 

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.