October 5, 2022 4:43pm

As the cell and gene therapy sector greased the skids downward in a volatile session

Pre-open indications: 7 HITs and 2 MISS

WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions.

No tunnel vision here, this analyst/journalist gets into the weeds of daily share pricing and root causes.

Why do I keep writing this blog/newsletter; to inform investors, what others won’t say or write

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed DOWN -49.99 points (-0.16%), the S&P closed DOWN -7.28 points (-0.19%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -27.77 points (-0.25%)

 

Henry’omics:

U.S. indexes were down and mixed until staging a reversal to fall back to the downside at the close in the final hour of trading Wednesday.

The Dow added 1,500 points on Monday and Tuesday, a climb that placed the index back above its key 30,000 level and out of a bear market, only 18% below its recent high as of Tuesday’s close. The Nasdaq soared 5.6% over the same two-day span.

And then the indexes got whacked … there was a lot of pessimism in the market.

Economic Data Docket: Private payrolls increased by 208,000 jobs <ADP>. September’s ISM services index registered a 56.7% reading, indicating the level of companies reporting expansion for the month. Employment rose 2.8 points to 53% while the prices index fell 2.8 points to 68.7%, still a robust reading but continuing to move lower. The trade deficit fell in August to a 15-month low of $67.4 billion, paving the way for a resumption of growth in U.S. gross domestic product in the third quarter.

 

Largest volume of the session:

  • bluebird bio (BLUE) Wednesday traded 6.631 million shares (+$0.19) after Tuesday traded 6.624 million shares (+$0.66) and Monday traded 5.405 million shares (-$0.20) <average 3 mo. volume = 7,958 million shares> So, when will an offering be proposed?

 

All-time low:

  • Verastem (VSTM) at $0.56

 

RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “silly question yet, will the cell and gene therapy sector outperform its daily spin? The major indexes backed off its intraday highs, should investors be ready for a little “whiplash”? I say EXIT on Wednesday for portfolio protection utilizing caution.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12635

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 3 up/ 30 down and 2 flats, stayed negative with 9 up/ 25 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 12/ 22 and 1 flat.

 

Pre-open Indications: 7 Hits < Agenus (AGEN +$0.16), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.65), Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG -$0.45), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.04), Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.27), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.30), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.04), 2 MISS < Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.0229), Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.43)>

 

Key Metrics:

  • Wednesday - Sector volume was HIGHER with 5 of the 12-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with HIGHER volume of 8 of 22-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.28% and the XBI was down -0.39%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Wednesday was down -0.13 points or -0.45% at 28.94

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (12 of 12):

  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.43 after Tuesday’s +$2.31 and Monday’s -$0.94),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.28),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.19),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.19),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.18 after Tuesday’s -$1.57 and Monday’s -$2.26),
  • Agenus (AGEN +$0.16),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.14 after Tuesday’s +$1.64 and Monday’s +$0.43),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.04),
  • Precigen (PGEN +$0.04),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA =$0.04 after Tuesday’s +$5.05 and Monday’s -$0.13),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.02 after Tuesday’s -$0.08),
  • Avrobio (AVRO +$0.014),

Flat (1):

  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT)

Closing down (10 of 22):

  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$2.12),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$1.31 after Tuesday’s +$2.69 and Monday’s -$0.58),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.04 after Tuesday’s +$2.57 and Monday’s -$2.25),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.65 after Tuesday’s +$3.71 and Monday’s +$0.25),
  • Biostage (BSTG -$0.45 after Tuesday’s -$0.39 and Monday’s -$0.71),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.42),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.39),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.31),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.30 after Tuesday’s +$0.98 and Monday’s -$0.29),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.27 after Tuesday’s +$1.16 and Monday’s +$0.26),

 

Q4 - October

  • Wednesday closed negative with 12 incliner, 22 decliners and 1 flat
  • Tuesday closed positive with 30 incliner, 5 decliners and 0 flat
  • Monday closed positive with 19 incliner, 15 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: As I wrote, how long will Monday and Tuesday’s rebound last … “I’d be cutting positions on Wednesday!”

I try to keep it simple … and short!

Monday, Tuesday’s and today’s (Wednesday) sector dramatic upside were driven by electronic trading and algorithms.

Let’s see what October brings – Q3 earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season and a whole lot of economic indicators.

October has NEVER been a good month for equities.

October has 2 positive and 1 negative closes; September continued with 1 holiday, 11 positive and 11 negative closes; August is over with 1 neutral, 11 positive and 11 negative closes while last week which ended the month.

As I continually question, “The real question that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

Start by looking at cell and gene therapy companies trading below cash!” 

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.