October 6, 2022 4:50pm
As electronic trading, algorithms and “hedges” make the trade
Pre-open indications: 1 HIT, 5 MISS and 1 Pump/Promote <Biostage (BSTG) – the usual suspect with 4,490 shares traded from where?>
WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions.
No tunnel vision here, this analyst/journalist gets into the weeds of daily share pricing and root causes.
Why do I keep writing this blog/newsletter; to inform investors, what others won’t say or write
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed DOWN -346.93 points (-1.15%), the S&P closed DOWN -38.77 points (-1.02%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -75.33 points (-0.68%)
Henry’omics:
Indexes seesawed and then dropped like a stone on Thursday, as traders weighed sharp swings in stocks and rates to start the month.
Investors are anxiously awaiting the Friday jobs report, which will show how the labor market fared in September, giving central banks another piece of information about its rate hike campaign. <CNBC>
Economic Data Docket: Figures released Thursday by the Labor Department show applications for the week ended Oct. 1 climbed to 219,000 from the downwardly revised 190,000 recorded a week earlier. That is in line with the 2019 pre-pandemic average of 218,000 claims. It marks the highest level for jobless claims in five weeks and is well above the median forecast for 203,000 new applications.
If unemployment benefits continue to climb, it could be a sign that employers are laying off workers as consumers pull back on spending and the economy grinds to a halt. Other data published this week shows that job openings plummeted to the lowest level since early in the pandemic. <Fox News>
- Updated projections released in September show that Fed officials expect unemployment to climb to 4.4% by the end of next year, up from the current rate of 3.7%.
Largest volume of the session:
- bluebird bio (BLUE) Thursday traded 5.385 million shares (+$0.59) after Wednesday traded 6.631 million shares (+$0.19) after Tuesday traded 6.624 million shares (+$0.66) and Monday traded 5.405 million shares (-$0.20) <average 3 mo. volume = 7,943 million shares> So, when will an offering be proposed?
All-time low:
- Verastem (VSTM) at $0.54
RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “tick, tock; where’s the price of cell and gene therapy stocks going. Fear and skepticism are riding the surface alongside confidence as the upside tides come in and downside go out.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12637
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …
- Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 14 up/ 18 down and 3 flats, flipped positive with 25 up/ 9 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 21/ 11 and 3 flats.
Pre-open Indications: 1 Hit <Agenus (AGEN +$0.435)> 5 MISS < Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.0041), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.63), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.77), uniQure NV (QURE +$0.10), Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.19), > 1 Pump/Promote < Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG +$1.30)>
Key Metrics:
- Thursday - Sector volume was LOW with 3 of the 21-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 1 of 11-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
Thursday, the IBB was down -0.49% and the XBI was up +0.02%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Thursday was up +2 points or +7.01% at 30.55
Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 21):
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.77 after Wednesday’s +$0.04, Tuesday’s +$5.05 and Monday’s -$0.13),
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.35),
- Biostage (BSTG +$1.30 after Wednesday’s -$0.45, Tuesday’s -$0.39 and Monday’s -$0.71),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.29 after Wednesday’s +$0.14, Tuesday’s +$1.64 and Monday’s +$0.43),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.63 after Wednesday’s -$1.04, Tuesday’s +$2.57 and Monday’s -$2.25),
- bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.56 after Wednesday’s +$0.19),
- Agenus (AGEN +$0.43 after Wednesday’s +$0.16),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM+$0.39 after Wednesday’s -$0.65, Tuesday’s +$3.71 and Monday’s +$0.25),
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.34 after Wednesday’s +$0.18, Tuesday’s -$1.57 and Monday’s -$2.26),
- Vericel (VCEL +$0.26 after Wednesday’s +$0.28),
Flats (3):
- Verastem (VSTM, Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT) and Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM)
Closing down (11 of 11):
- Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.60 after Wednesday’s -$2.12),
- Ionis pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.38),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.34 after Wednesday’s -$0.27, Tuesday’s +$1.16 and Monday’s +$0.26),
- Precigen (PGEN -$0.20 after Wednesday’s +$0.04),
- Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.14 after Wednesday’s -$0.30, Tuesday’s +$0.98 and Monday’s -$0.29),
- AxoGen (AXGN -$0.14 after Wednesday’s -$0.39),
- MiMedx (MDXG -$0.11 after Wednesday’s +$0.04),
- Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.08),
- Chinook therapeutics (KDNY -$0.060,
- Avrobio (AVRO -$0.0089 after Wednesday’s +$0.014),
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.0041),
Q4 - October
- Thursday closed positive with 21 incliner, 11 decliners and 3 flats
The BOTTOM LINE: an appropriate quote, ““There are very few stocks in uptrend right now,” CNBC’s “Halftime Report.” “And that is why I think these rallies are all guilty until proven innocent.” While the two-day rally this week was notable, the investor does not expect that anything fundamental has changed in the market, which he believes continues to point to a downtrend.
“We’re going to have these rips, but like the market gets turned away from the 200-day all the time this year.”
And until those change, I don’t think there’s any reason that anybody should change their mind from the current psychology, and that lower high, lower low trap that we’ve been in really since January 3rd is still intact.”
Says it all …
I try to keep it simple … and short!
I believe, “Monday, Tuesday’s, Wednesday and Thursday’s sector dramatic upside were driven by electronic trading and algorithms; NOT investor input although hedge funds are NOT long-term investors.
Let’s see what October brings – Q3 earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season and a whole lot of economic indicators.
October has NEVER been a good month for equities.
October has 2 positive and 1 negative closes; September continued with 1 holiday, 11 positive and 11 negative closes; August is over with 1 neutral, 11 positive and 11 negative closes while last week which ended the month.
As I continually question, “The real question that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash?
Start by looking at cell and gene therapy companies trading below cash!”
I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
