October 7, 2022 4:57pm

There are clear winners and losers since the start of October

The Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) Chronicles: the pump/promote is in full swing 10,467 shares traded to reach a +$0.15 close after Thursday’s +$1.30, Wednesday’s -$0.45, Tuesday’s -$0.39 and Monday’s -$0.71)

News: Avrobio (AVRO at $0.65) received a, “Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing” from the Nasdaq on 10/4/22

Pre-open indications: 4 HITs, 5 MISS and 1 Pump/Promote <Biostage (BSTG) – the usual suspect with 5,307 shares traded?>

WHY and HOW is this market affecting the cell and gene therapy sector … “The Bottom Line” underlines the framework of share pricing actions.

No tunnel vision here, this analyst/journalist gets into the weeds of daily share pricing and root causes.

Why do I keep writing this blog/newsletter; to inform investors, what others won’t say or write

Week in review 

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed DOWN -630.15 points (-2.11%), the S&P closed DOWN -104.86 points (-2.80%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -420.91 points (-3.80%)

 

Henry’omics:

U.S. stocks tumbled on Friday after the government's monthly employment report, which showed labor conditions remained tight in September, despite a slowdown in hiring.

As a sell-off accelerated in the final hour of the Friday session.

Friday’s losses trimmed the gains for what started out as a big comeback week for stocks. The major averages are still on pace to end the week higher but have given back most of the gains from the rally that kicked off the week.

The Dow is heading to a 1.5% weekly gain, while the S&P is on track to end the week higher by 1.1%. The Nasdaq is on pace to rise 0.4%.

Economic Data Docket: Friday’s jobs numbers showed the U.S. economy added 263,000 jobs in September, slightly below one estimate of 275,000. However, the unemployment rate came in at 3.5%, down from the 3.7% in the previous month in a sign that the jobs picture continues to strengthen even as the Fed tries to slow the economy with rate hikes to stem inflation.

Largest volume of the session:

  • bluebird bio (BLUE) Friday traded 5,397 million shares (-$0.62) after Thursday traded 5.385 million shares (+$0.59), Wednesday traded 6.631 million shares (+$0.19) after Tuesday traded 6.624 million shares (+$0.66) and Monday traded 5.405 million shares (-$0.20) <average 3 mo. volume = 7,973 million shares> So, when will an offering be proposed?

All-time low: Verastem (VSTM) at $0.485

52-week low; Ultragenyx (RARE) at $37.93

 

RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “resistance and key jobs report posts the number, 263,000 with unemployment 3.5%. Bad news can be good news and good news can be bad news and usually sold into ... as US adds fewest jobs this Year as labor market cools.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12639

 

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Friday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 10 up/ 24 down and 1 flat, stayed negative with 6 up/ 28 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 8/25 and 2 flats.
  • Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 14 up/ 18 down and 3 flats, stayed negative with 9 up/ 25 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 21/ 11 and 3 flats.
  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 3 up/ 30 down and 2 flats, flipped positive with 23 up/ 11 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 12/ 22 and 1 flat.
  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 27 up/ 6 down and 2 flats, stayed positive with 27 up/ 8 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 30/5 and 0 flat.
  • Monday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 23 up/ 12 down and 0 flat, stayed positive with 20 up/15 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 19/15 and 1 flat.

 

Pre-open Indications: 4 Hit <Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$3.59), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$3.04), Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$2.84), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$5.56); 5 MISS < Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.05), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$6.67), uniQure NV (QURE -$0.92), Agenus (AGEN -$0.12), Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.003)> 1 Pump/Promote < Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG +$0.15)>

 

Key Metrics:

  • Friday - Sector volume was LOW with 4 of the 8-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 11 of 25-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
  • Thursday - Sector volume was LOW with 3 of the 21-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 1 of 11-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
  • Wednesday - Sector volume was HIGHER with 5 of the 12-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with HIGHER volume of 8 of 22-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
  • Tuesday - Sector volume was HIGHER with 14 of the 30-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with HIGHER volume of 4 of 5-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
  • Monday - Sector volume was LOW with 6 of the 19-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with HIGHER volume of 7 of 15-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was down -2.81% and the XBI was down -4.32%
  • Thursday, the IBB was down -0.49% and the XBI was up +0.02%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.28% and the XBI was down -0.39%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was up +2.86% and the XBI was up +3.79%
  • Monday, the IBB was up +1.95% and the XBI was up +0.83%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was up +0.88 points or +2.88% at 31.40
  • Thursday was up +2 points or +7.01% at 30.55
  • Wednesday was down -0.13 points or -0.45% at 28.94
  • Tuesday was down -0.95 points or -3.16% at 29.15
  • Monday was down -1.52 points or -4.81% at 30.10

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (8 of 8):

  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.33),
  • Biostage (BSTG +$0.15 after Thursday’s +$1.30, Wednesday’s -$0.45, Tuesday’s -$0.39 and Monday’s -$0.71),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.12),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.09),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.05 after Thursday’s -$0.14, Wednesday’s -$0.30, Tuesday’s +$0.98 and Monday’s -$0.29),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.01),
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.004),
  • Avrobio (AVRO +$0.0001 after Thursday’s -$0.0089 and Wednesday’s +$0.014),

Acquired (1):

  • Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT)

Flat (1):

  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM)

Closing down (10 of 25):

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$6.67 after Thursday’s +$1.77, Wednesday’s +$0.04, Tuesday’s +$5.05 and Monday’s -$0.13),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$6.56),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$3.61 after Thursday’s +$0.63, Wednesday’s -$1.04, Tuesday’s +$2.57 and Monday’s -$2.25),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$3.59 after Thursday’s +$0.39, Wednesday’s -$0.65, Tuesday’s +$3.71 and Monday’s +$0.25),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$3.04 after Thursday’s +$1.29, Wednesday’s +$0.14, Tuesday’s +$1.64 and Monday’s +$0.43),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$2.84),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$2.01 after Thursday’s -$0.60, Wednesday’s -$2.12),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.75 after Thursday’s -$0.34, Wednesday’s -$0.27, Tuesday’s +$1.16 and Monday’s +$0.26),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$1.28),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.92),

 

Q4 - October

  • Friday closed negative with 8 incliner, 25 decliners and 1 flat and 1 acquired
  • Thursday closed positive with 21 incliner, 11 decliners and 3 flats
  • Wednesday closed negative with 12 incliner, 22 decliners and 1 flat
  • Tuesday closed positive with 30 incliner, 5 decliners and 0 flat
  • Monday closed positive with 19 incliner, 15 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: TGIF, the share pricing “merry-go-round left me dizzy …

 Friday’s losses trimmed the gains for what started out as a comeback week for cell and gene therapy equities; while the major averages are still on pace to end the week higher but have given back most of the gains from the rally that kicked off the week.

I try to keep it simple … and short!

We are seeing what October brings – Q3 earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season and a whole lot of economic indicators.

October has NEVER been a good month for equities.

October has 3 positive and 2 negative closes; September continued with 1 holiday, 11 positive and 11 negative closes; August is over with 1 neutral, 11 positive and 11 negative closes while last week which ended the month.

As I continually question, “The real question that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

Start by looking at cell and gene therapy companies trading below cash!” 

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.