October 10, 2022 4:37pm
Volatility reigns as investors eye rate outlook while three major stock indexes dived Monday
Pre-open indications: 5 HITs, 1 MISS and 2 BUY Dips
It’s an honor to be considered the “canary in the (sector) coal mine”! I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors in the perception of sector vulnerabilities and strengths – it’s more than opinion, the facts and truth need to be recognized!
Why do I keep writing this blog/newsletter; to inform investors, what others won’t say or write
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed DOWN -93.91 points (-0.32%), the S&P closed DOWN -27.27 points (-0.75%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -110.30 points (-1.04%)
Henry’omics:
The U.S. bond market was shut for Columbus Day holiday on Monday.
"It's one of those strange quasi-holidays where stock markets are open, but bond markets are closed. We really have little or no economic data and no real hard catalyst for the markets today," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth.
Stocks declined on Monday with the Nasdaq falling to the lowest level in two years as tech shares continue to be the hardest hit in this bear market because of spiking interest rates. The declines came as JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the U.S. would likely fall into a recession in 2023, and that it may not be just a mild economic contraction as some economists have projected. <CNBC>
Economic Data Docket: The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index was down 2.7%, after the Biden administration published a sweeping set of export controls on Friday, including a measure to cut China off from certain semiconductor chips made anywhere in the world with U.S. equipment.
Largest volume of the session:
- bluebird bio (BLUE) Monday traded 3.017 million shares (-$0.30), after Friday traded 5,397 million shares (-$0.62) after Thursday traded 5.385 million shares (+$0.59), Wednesday traded 6.631 million shares (+$0.19) after Tuesday traded 6.624 million shares (+$0.66) and Monday traded 5.405 million shares (-$0.20) <average 3 mo. volume = 7,973 million shares> So, when will an offering be proposed?
All-time low: Verastem (VSTM) at $0.48
52-week low; Ultragenyx (RARE) at $37.19
RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “the share pricing game, musical chairs. What’s discoverable on Columbus Day, the bond market is closed.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12642
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …
- Monday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 5 up/ 28 down and s flat, stayed negative with 6 up/ 28 down and 1 acquired at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 4/30 and 1 acquired.
Pre-open Indications: 5 Hit < Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG -$0.10), bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.30), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.08), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.78), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.83)> 2 BUY Dips: <Agenus (AGEN -$0.03), Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.02)> 1 MISS < Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.49)>
Key Metrics:
- Monday - Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 4-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 5 of 30-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Monday, the IBB was down -0.75% and the XBI was down -1.85%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Monday was up +1.01 points or +3.22% at 30.37
Jumping with share pricing momentum (4 of 4):
- Vericel (VCEL +$0.23),
- Mesoblast (MESO +$0.15 after Friday’s +$0.12),
- Precigen (PGEN +$0.04),
- Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.03),
Acquired (1):
- Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT)
Closing down (10 of 30):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$8.99 after Friday’s +$6.56),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA-$1.71 after Friday’s -$6.67),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$1.61 after Friday’s -$2.84),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$1.38 after Friday’s -$1.28),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.25 after Friday’s +$3.04),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.08 after Friday’s +$3.59),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.83 after Friday’s -$3.61),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.83 after Friday’s -$0.33),
- Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.78),
- Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.74 after Friday’s -$2.01),
Q4 - October
- Monday closed negative with 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 acquired
The BOTTOM LINE: The share pricing “merry-go-round” left me dizzy …
I try to keep it simple … and short!
We are seeing what October brings – Q3 earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season and a whole lot of economic indicators.
October has NEVER been a good month for equities.
I believe the sector is showing mixed signals, some BUYs more SELLs – yet I also believe we should review the new bottoming of Agenus (AGEN) and Solid Biosciences (SLDB) while DISPOSING of Avrobio (AVRO) who just experiences a de-listing Notice while the management DID NOTHING to AVOID this dilemma!
· Will AVRO have to commission" of a stock reverse to address delisting?
October has 3 positive and 3 negative closes; September continued with 1 holiday, 11 positive and 11 negative closes; August is over with 1 neutral, 11 positive and 11 negative closes while last week which ended the month.
As I continually question, “The real question that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash?
Start by looking at cell and gene therapy companies trading below cash!”
I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
