October 11, 2022 5:23pm

After a tough morning session started with 31 of 35 down while the upside is welcomed with 31 jumping positive at approximately 12:30 p.m.; closing neutral  

Facts: even with news and a positive pre-open indication, Avrobio (AVRO -$0.01) dives post de-listing notice. Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed at an all-time low of $0.25, just can’t gain momentum as confidence and sentiment are non-aligned.

Pre-open indications: 5 HITs, 2 MISS and 1 Pump/Promote <Biostage (BSTG) – the usual suspect>

It’s an honor to be considered the “canary in the (sector) coal mine”!  I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors in the perception of sector vulnerabilities and strengths …

It’s more than opinion, the facts and truth need to be recognized!

Why do I keep writing this blog/newsletter; to inform investors, what others won’t say or write

 

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +36.31 points (+0.12%), the S&P closed DOWN -23.55 points (-0.65%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -115.91 points (-1.10%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes rose on Tuesday, reversing earlier declines, as investors, hedge funds and electronic traders looked ahead to key inflation data and earnings out later in the week that will give the Fed updated information on the state of the U.S. economy.

Excellent quote to be lifted, “This is an awful stock market environment that is grappling with a weakening economy, uncertainty over earnings and how long the Fed’s tightening will last, and sentiment issues with an extremely risk adverse investor psychology,” said David Bahnsen, chief investment officer of The Bahnsen Group, in a Tuesday note. <CNBC>

Economic Data Docket: On Wednesday, the producer price report will be released and followed by the September consumer price index Thursday. On Friday, September retail sales will give further insight into consumption.

Largest volume of the session:

  • bluebird bio (BLUE) Tuesday traded 5,305 million shares (+$0.27) after Monday’s traded 2.988 million shares (-$0.30), Friday traded 5,397 million shares (-$0.62), Thursday traded 5.385 million shares (+$0.59), Wednesday traded 6.631 million shares (+$0.19) and last Tuesday traded 6.624 million shares (+$0.66) <average 3 mo. volume = 7,939 million shares> So, when will an offering be proposed?

All-time low: Verastem (VSTM) at $0.45 and Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) at $0.24

 

RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “is a short-term bottom close – not by a long-shot? The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, rose 3.5% to 32.45, its third straight gain; still below the 9/28’s intraday high of 38.44.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12644

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 1 up/ 31 down and 1 flat, flipped positive with +31 up/ 4 down and o flats at the mid-day, ending with a neutral close of 17/17 and 1 acquired.
  • Monday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 5 up/ 28 down and 2 flats, stayed negative with +6 up/ 28 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 4/30 and 1 acquired.

 

Pre-open Indications: 5 Hit < CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.31), Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.19), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.83), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.10), Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.10)> 2 MISS < Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.46), AVROBIO (AVRO -$0.0149). 1 Pump/Promote < Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG +$0.10 with 5, 510 shares traded)>  

 

Key Metrics:

  • Tuesday - Sector volume was LOW with 4 of the 17-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 8 of 167-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.19% and the XBI was up +0.80%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was up +1.18 points or +3.64% at 33.63

 

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of xx):

  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.59 after Monday’s +$0.23),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.47 after Monday’s -$0.78),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.46 after Monday’s -$0.83),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.3121 after Monday’s -$1.25),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.31 after Monday’s +$0.05),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.27 after Monday’s -$0.74),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.27),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.25),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.23),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.19),

Flat (1):

  • AxoGen (AXGN)

Closing down (10 of 17):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.31 after Monday’s -$0.83),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.83 after Monday’s -$1.71),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.73 after Monday’s -$1.38),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.39),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.21),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.14 after Monday’s +$8.99),
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.13 after Monday’s +$0.01),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.10),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.10 after Monday’s -$1.08
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.08 after Monday’s -$1.61),

 

Q4 - October

  • Tuesday closed neutral with 17 incliner, 17 decliners and 1 acquired
  • Monday closed negative with 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE: BIG issue for tomorrow, “On Wednesday morning, the Labor Department will release the producer price index, a warm-up for Thursday's consumer price index. Meanwhile, Fed minutes from the September policy meeting will be out Wednesday afternoon.”

Monday and Tuesday’s share pricing “merry-go-round” has left me dizzy …

I try to keep it simple … and short!

We are seeing what October brings – Q3 earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season and a whole lot of economic indicators.

October has NEVER been a good month for equities.

I believe the sector is showing mixed signals, some BUYs more SELLs – yet I also believe we should review the new bottoming of Agenus (AGEN) and Solid Biosciences (SLDB) while DISPOSING of Avrobio (AVRO) who just experiences news and the stock drops after a de-listing notice while the management DID NOTHING to AVOID this dilemma!

·         AVRO had news and a positive +$0.06 pre-open indication and closed down -$0.0149

·         Will AVRO have to “commission" a stock reverse to address delisting?

October has 1 neutral, 3 positive and 3 negative closes; September continued with 1 holiday, 11 positive and 11 negative closes; August is over with 1 neutral, 11 positive and 11 negative closes while last week which ended the month.

As I continually question, “The real question that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

Start by looking at cell and gene therapy companies trading below cash!” 

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.