October 13, 2022 6:00pm

A closely watched measure of US consumer prices rose by more than forecast to a 40-year high in September, pressuring the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates even more aggressively to stamp out persistent inflation. <Bloomberg>

Pre-open indications: 1 Pump/Promote <Biostage (BSTG) – the usual suspect>

It’s an honor to be considered the “canary in the (sector) coal mine”!  I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors in the perception of sector vulnerabilities and strengths

It’s more than opinion, the facts and truth need to be recognized! Why do I keep writing this blog/newsletter; to inform investors, what others won’t say or write

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +827.87 points (+2.83%), the S&P closed UP +92.88 points (+2.60%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +232.05 points (+2.23%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes staged a massive comeback Thursday, the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.29% as traders shook off another hot inflation report.

The choppy session saw stocks fall to their lowest levels since 2020 following hotter-than-expected inflation data and then post a stunning rebound. The Dow regained more than 1,400 points as traders digested the September consumer price index report. The S&P 500 posted its widest trading range since March 2020, going from being down 2.39% to rising 2.39%. <CNBC>

Thursday marked the fifth largest intraday reversal from a low in the history of the S&P 500, and it was the fourth largest for the Nasdaq. <SentimenTrader>

Economic Data Docket: The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy, increased 6.6% from a year ago, the highest level since 1982, Labor Department data showed Thursday. From a month earlier, the core CPI climbed 0.6% for a second month. On an annual basis, inflation was up 8.2%.

 

Largest volume of the session:

  • bluebird bio (BLUE) Thursday traded 3.119 million shares (+$0.06) after Wednesday’s 3.116 million shares (-$0.12), Tuesday traded 5,305 million shares (+$0.27) after Monday’s traded 2.988 million shares (-$0.30), Friday traded 5,397 million shares (-$0.62) and last Thursday traded 5.385 million shares (+$0.59), <average 3 mo. volume = 7,924 million shares> So, when will an offering be proposed?

All-time lows: Verastem (VSTM) at $0.39, Avrobio (AVRO) at $0.60 and Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) at $0.23

 

RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “pivot means change away or towards risks which are high while rewards are low. Will CPI report (+0.4%) change the upside direction or spiral downward?” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12648

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 29 up/ 5 down and 1 flat, flipped positive with +27 up/ 8 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 25/9 and 1 acquired.

 

Pre-open Indications: 0 Hit > 1 Pump/Promote < Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG +$0.06 with 1,400 shares traded)> 

 

Key Metrics:

  • Thursday - Sector volume was LOW with 5 of the 25-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 3 of 9-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume

 

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB was up +2% and the XBI was up +1.74%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was down -1.63 points or -4.86% at 31.94

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 25):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$6.65 after Wednesday’s -$1.57, Tuesday’s -$0.14 and Monday’s +$8.99),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.18 after Wednesday’s +$1.01, Tuesday’s +$0.27 and Monday’s -$0.74),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.85 after Wednesday’s +$0.39, Tuesday’s -$0.73 and Monday’s -$1.38),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.78 after Wednesday’s +$1.65, Tuesday’s -$0.10 and Monday’s -$1.08
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.68 after Wednesday’s -$0.28 and Tuesday’s +$0.23),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.63 after Wednesday’s -$0.09, Tuesday’s +$0.59 and Monday’s +$0.23),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.57 after Wednesday’s +$0.21, Tuesday’s +$0.47 and Monday’s -$0.78),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.49),
  • Sage Therapeutics (FATE +$0.43),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.31 after Wednesday’s -$0.06, Tuesday’s -$0.13 after Monday’s +$0.01),

Flat (1):

  • Precigen (PGEN)

Closing down (9 of 9):

  • CRISP Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.45),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.35 after Wednesday’s +$0.46, Tuesday’s +$0.46 and Monday’s -$0.83),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.06 after Wednesday’s +$0.82, Tuesday’s -$0.08 and Monday’s -$1.61),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.0213),
  • Homology medicine (FIXX -$0.02),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.0194),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.30 after Tuesday’s +$0.31 and Monday’s +$0.05),
  • Verastem (VSTM -$0.016),
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC -$0.0069),
  • Avrobio (AVRO -$0.0015),

 

Q4 - October

  • Thursday closed positive with 25 incliner, 9 decliners and 1 flat
  • Wednesday closed positive with 19 incliner, 15 decliners and 1 flat
  • Tuesday closed neutral with 17 incliner, 17 decliners and 1 acquired
  • Monday closed negative with 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Don’t be in a rush to BUY in this sector.

Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday’ and Thursdays share pricing “roller-coaster” has left me dizzy.

I try to keep it simple … and short!

We are seeing what October brings – Q3 earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season and a whole lot of economic indicators.

Alnylam pharmaceuticals (ALNY&) was the first to declare is Q3 earnings report on Thursday, 9/30.

October has NEVER been a good month for equities.

I believe the sector is showing mixed signals, some BUYs more SELLs – yet I also believe we should review the new bottoming of Agenus (AGEN +$0.04) and Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.01).

 DISPOSE Avrobio (AVRO) who experiences news and the stock drops after a de-listing notice while the management DID NOTHING to AVOID this dilemma while president, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year… ??

·         AVRO closed down -$0.0149 Tuesday’s -$0.02 on Wednesday and Thursday’s $0.60 (-$0.00)

·         Will AVRO have to “commission" a stock reverse to address delisting?

October has 1 neutral, 5 positive and 3 negative closes; September continued with 1 holiday, 11 positive and 11 negative closes; August is over with 1 neutral, 11 positive and 11 negative closes while last week which ended the month.

As I continually question, “The real question that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

Start by looking at cell and gene therapy companies trading below cash!” 

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.