October 14, 2022 4:56pm

Too many risks to liquidity and equity movements that are NOT dependent on investors

Pre-open indications: 2 Hits and 1 Miss

It’s an honor to be considered the “canary in the (sector) coal mine”!  I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors in the perception of sector vulnerabilities and strengths …

It’s more than opinion, the facts and truth need to be recognized! Why do I keep writing this blog/newsletter; to inform investors, what others won’t say or write

TGIF, the week in review

 

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed DOWN -403.89 points (-1.34%), the S&P closed DOWN -86.84 points (-2.37%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -327.76 points (-3.08%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes dumped Friday, ending a volatile week of trading, a session after posting a historic turnaround rally as investors digested inflation expectations.

“Stocks fell to session lows after a consumer survey from the University of Michigan showed inflation expectations were increasing, sentiment that the Federal Reserve is likely watching closely. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led declines as growth companies are most sensitive to interest rate hikes.” <CNBC>

Economic Data Docket: U.S. consumer sentiment edges up October; inflation estimates worsen. University of Michigan showed consumer sentiment improved in October but inflation expectations worsened as gas prices moved higher. Retail sales data also indicated resilience among consumers.

 

Largest volume of the session:

  • bluebird bio (BLUE) Friday traded 3.507 million shares (-$0.44) after Thursday traded 3.119 million shares (+$0.06), Wednesday’s 3.116 million shares (-$0.12), Tuesday traded 5,305 million shares (+$0.27) and Monday’s traded 2.988 million shares (-$0.30), <average 3 mo. volume = 7,915 million shares> So, when will an offering be proposed?

All-time lows: Verastem (VSTM) at $0.38

 

RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “an absence of certainty in inflation and earnings. Good news is what again? Answer, to be sold into.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12650

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Friday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 11 up/ 22 down and 12 flats, stayed negative with +8 up/ 26 down and `1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 5/30 and 0 flat.
  • Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 29 up/ 5 down and 1 flat, flipped positive with +27 up/ 8 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 25/9 and 1 flat.
  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 9 up/ 25 down and 1 flat, stayed negative with +11 up/ 23 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 19/15 and 1 acquired.
  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 1 up/ 31 down and 1 flat, flipped positive with +31 up/ 4 down and o flats at the mid-day, ending with a neutral close of 17/17 and 1 acquired.
  • Monday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 5 up/ 28 down and 2 flats, stayed negative with +6 up/ 28 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 4/30 and 1 acquired.

 

Pre-open Indications: 2 Hit <uniQure NV (QURE -$0.23), Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG -$0.20 with 700 shares traded> 1 Miss < AxoGen (AXGN -$0.20)  

 

Key Metrics: low volume all week long spurred the roller-coaster share pricing

  • Friday - Sector volume was LOW with 0 of the 5-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 6 of 30-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
  • Thursday - Sector volume was LOW with 5 of the 25-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 3 of 9-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
  • Wednesday - Sector volume was LOW with 0 of the 19-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 3 of 15-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
  • Tuesday - Sector volume was LOW with 4 of the 17-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 8 of 167-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
  • Monday - Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 4-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 5 of 30-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was down -1.51% and the XBI was down -2.81
  • Thursday, the IBB was up +2% and the XBI was up +1.74%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.73% and the XBI was up +0.55%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.19% and the XBI was up +0.80
  • Monday was up +1.01 points or +3.22% at 30.37

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was up +0.04 points or +0.13% at 31.98
  • Thursday was down -1.63 points or -4.86% at 31.94
  • Wednesday was down -0.06 points or -0.18% at 33.57
  • Tuesday was up +1.18 points or +3.64% at 33.63
  • Monday was up +1.01 points or +3.22% at 30.37

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (5 of 5):

  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.69 after Thursday’s -$0.35, Wednesday’s +$0.46, Tuesday’s +$0.46 and Monday’s -$0.83),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.08),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.019 after Thursday’s -$0.0213),
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC +$0.0057 after Thursday’s -$0.0069),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.0004 after Thursday’s -$0.0194),

Closing down (10 of 30):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$6.23 after Thursday’s +$6.65, Wednesday’s -$1.57, Tuesday’s -$0.14 and Monday’s +$8.99),
  • CRISP Therapeutics (CRSP -$3.99 after Thursday’s -$0.45),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$3.53 after Thursday’s +$0.78, Wednesday’s +$1.65, Tuesday’s -$0.10 and Monday’s -$1.08,
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$2.74),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$2.59 after Thursday’s +$1.18, Wednesday’s +$1.01, Tuesday’s +$0.27 and Monday’s -$0.74),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$2.01 after Thursday’s -$0.06, Wednesday’s +$0.82, Tuesday’s-$0.08 and Monday’s -$1.61),
  • Sage Therapeutics (FATE -$1.27 after Thursday’s +$0.43),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$1.20 after Thursday’s +$0.85, Wednesday’s +$0.39, Tuesday’s -$0.73 and Monday’s -$1.38),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.09),
  • Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG -$1.06 after Thursday’s +$0.06, Wednesday’s +$0.10, Tuesday’s -$0.10 and Monday’s -$0.10)

 

Q4 - October

  • Friday closed negative with 5 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 flat
  • Thursday closed positive with 25 incliner, 9 decliners and 1 flat
  • Wednesday closed positive with 19 incliner, 15 decliners and 1 flat
  • Tuesday closed neutral with 17 incliner, 17 decliners and 1 acquired
  • Monday closed negative with 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 acquired

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Don’t be in a rush to BUY in this sector.

Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday’s share pricing “roller-coaster” has left me dizzy.

I try to keep it simple … and short!

We are seeing what October brings – Q3 earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season and a whole lot of economic indicators.

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) was the first to declare is Q3 earnings report on Thursday, 10/27 at 8:30 a.m.

October has NEVER been a good month for equities.

I believe Friday’s sector showed more SELL signals and I also believe we should BUY the newest bottoms of Agenus (AGEN -$0.14) and Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.0004).

 DISPOSE Avrobio (AVRO) who experiences news and the stock drops after a de-listing notice while the management DID NOTHING to AVOID this dilemma while president, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year… ??

·         AVRO closed down -$0.0149 Tuesday’s -$0.02 on Wednesday, Thursday’s $0.60 (-$0.00) and Friday’s -$0.0151 to $0.58 which does NOT get close to the $1.00 delisting amount.

·         Will AVRO have to “commission" a stock reverse to address delisting?

October has 1 neutral, 5 positive and 4 negative closes;

As I continually question, “The real question that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

Start by looking at cell and gene therapy companies trading below cash!” 

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.