October 20, 2022 4:39pm

Thursday initial rally attempts were challenged as downslider creeped

Pre-open indications: 6 Hits and 4 Miss

It’s an honor to be considered the “canary in the (sector) coal mine”!  I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors in the perception of sector vulnerabilities and strengths

It’s more than opinion, the facts and truth need to be recognized!

Why do I keep writing this blog/newsletter; to inform investors, what others won’t say or write

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed DOWN -91.01 points (-0.30%), the S&P closed DOWN -29.58 points (-0.80%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -65.66 points (-0.61%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes were flopping down in choppy trading on Thursday as investors weighed several key earnings reports and kept an eye on the bond market, where Treasury yields continue to climb.

An appropriate quote, “As long as official policy is to make the stock market go down, so that people are less wealthy, so that they buy fewer things, so that prices stop going up, all while doing nothing about fiscal policy, we believe the correct posture is to be bearish on stocks and bullish on inflation.” <Greenlight Capital’s David Einhorn said in an investor letter obtained by CNBC>

Interesting article: CRISPR Stocks: Will Concerns Over Risk Inhibit Gene-Editing Cures? (By ALLISON GATLIN) in IBD… A cure for genetic diseases has been little more than a whisper — until now. Thanks to the work of companies using a technique known as CRISPR gene-editing, quick and permanent cures could be on the horizon for a host of illnesses. But concerns over acceptable risk may stand in the way of these CRISPR stocks. Read:  https://finance.yahoo.com/m/a9106e21-fe8a-31c5-941f-44ae9f823046/crispr-stocks%3A-will-concerns.html?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo

Economic Data Docket: Manufacturing in the Philadelphia region contracted more than expected in October. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s manufacturing index showed a reading of -8.7, below the estimate of -5. The gauge measures the percentage difference between firms reporting expansion vs. contraction.

·         In other economic news, first-time filings for unemployment insurance declined last week and were well below estimates, the Labor Department reported. Jobless claims for the week ended Oct. 15 totaled 214,000, a decline of 12,000 from the previous week and less than the 230,000 Dow Jones forecast.

·         Continuing claims, which run a week behind, increased 21,000 to 1.385 million, a bit above the 1.38 million estimates from FactSet.

·         Sales of previously owned homes fell 1.5% in September from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.71 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors. The average rate on the 30-year fixed-rate home loan is now just over 7%, after starting this year around 3%.

 

RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “weakness. It’s a crap shoot of a sector and market; If you do take any positions, make them small and be quick to take profits.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12658

 

All-time lows:

  • Verastem (VSTM) at $0.29
  • Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) at $0.23

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened …

  • Thursday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 32 up/ 2 down and 1 flat, flipped negative with 12 up/ 22 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 15/19 and 1 flat.

 

Pre-open Indications: 6 Hit < AxoGen (AXGN $0.00), Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG -$0.16), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.30), Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.0026), Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.28), Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.77)> 4 Miss < Agenus (AGEN -$0.05), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.36), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.78), Vericel (VCEL +$0.05)

 

Key Metrics:

  • Thursday - Sector volume was LOW with 1 of the 15-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 4 of 19-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB was down -0.80% and the XBI was down -0.53%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was down -0.66 points or -2.15% at 30.10

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 15):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.98 after Wednesday’s -$2.05, Tuesday’s -$1.04 and Monday’s +$9.56),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.42 after Wednesday’s -$2.05, Tuesday’s +$ 0.60 and Monday’s +$1.80),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.36 after Wednesday’s -$1.73 after Tuesday’s -$0.32),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.21 after Wednesday’s -$1.88, Tuesday’s -$1.10 and Monday’s +$1.11),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.17),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.14),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.085),
  • UniQure NV (QURE +$0.05),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.050,
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.04),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.04),

Flat (1):

  • AxoGen (AXGN)

Closing down (10 of 19):

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$3.31 after Wednesday’s -$2.41, Tuesday +$0.54 after Monday’s +$2.20),
  • CRISP Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.78 after Wednesday’s +$2.83, Tuesday’s +$0.57 and Monday’s +$2.26),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.00 after Wednesday’s -$3.20 after Tuesday’s -$0.12 and Monday’s +$2.70),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.64 after Wednesday’s -$1.96 and Tuesday’s +$0.56),
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.32),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.30 after Wednesday’s -$2.00),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.28),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.20),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.17 after Wednesday’s -$1.47, Tuesday’s +$1.15 and Monday’s +$1.24),
  • Biostage (BSTG -$0.16),

 

Q4 - October

  • Thursday closed negative with 15 incliner, 19 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: after the wipe out … the cell and gene therapy/biotech sector was one of the worst performers on Wednesday; Thursday tried to swam to the surface with only xx upsiders of 35 covered,

 I try to keep it simple … and short!

We will be seeing what October brings – Q3 earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season and a whole lot of economic indicators.

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) is the first to declare is Q3 earnings report on Thursday, 10/27 at 8:30 a.m. MiMedx (MDXG) comes in second on 11/2, Wednesday at 5 p.m.; AxoGen (AXGN) on 11/8, Tuesday at 8 a.m.

Remember, historically October has NEVER been a good month for equities.

DISPOSE Avrobio (AVRO) who experiences news and the stock drops after a de-listing notice while the management DID NOTHING to AVOID this dilemma while president, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?

·         AVRO closed up Thursday -$0.0065 after Wednesday’s -$0.0322 to $0.65, Tuesday +$0.07 after ILAP designation from the UK news after Monday’s +$0.02 to $0.60 which STILL does NOT get close to the $1.00 to continue its Nasdaq listing after a delisting notice.

·         AVRO’s 39th session of under $1.00,

·         Will AVRO have to “commission" a stock reverse to address delisting?

Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed down again -$0.0046 on Thursday after Wednesday’s -$0.0080 and Tuesday’s BARELY up of +$0.0022 and is 18 sessions into getting delisted (under $1.00)

October has 1 neutral, 7 positive and 6 negative closes;

As I continually question, “The real question that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

Start by looking at cell and gene therapy companies trading below cash!” 

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.