October 21, 2022 4:50pm
Could it be the Fed might consider less aggressive inflation-curbing tactics after November as the rumor abounded possibly helping the market and sector re daily expectation
Pre-open indications: 4 Hits and 2 Miss and 1 Pump/Promote <Biostage (BSTG) – the usual suspect>
It’s an honor to be considered the “canary in the (sector) coal mine”! I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors in the perception of sector vulnerabilities and strengths …
It’s more than opinion, the facts and truth need to be recognized! Why do I keep writing this blog/newsletter; to inform investors, what others won’t say or write
The week in review – TGIF!
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed UP + 748.97 points (+2.47%), the S&P closed UP +86.97 points (+2.37%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +244.87 points (+2.31%)
Indexes rose on Friday after a report said the Fed will likely debate on signaling plans for a smaller interest rate hike in December, although declines capped gains on the Nasdaq.
Some Fed officials have begun sounding out their desire to slow down the pace of increases soon, according to the Wall Street Journal, and how to signal plans to approve a smaller increase in December.
· Traders are still widely expecting a fourth (4th) 75-basis-point hike at the central bank's November meeting.
Focused quote, “like every other bounce we’ve had, it hasn’t been very well sustained. ... A bounce today doesn’t necessarily mean it’s going to continue into next week. If it does, I suspect it won’t be more than a day or two,” Frederick added.” <Randy Frederick, managing director of trading and derivatives at the Schwab Center for Financial Research>
RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “climbing the ladder of share pricing. Problem, sentiment’s ladder rungs have been glued with broken glass as technical resistance coincided with Treasury yields moving higher yet again.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12661
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened
- Friday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 25 up/ 8 down and 2 flats, stayed positive with xx up/ xx down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 27/4 and 4 flats.
- Thursday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 32 up/ 2 down and 1 flat, flipped negative with 12 up/ 22 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 15/19 and 1 flat.
- Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 4 up/ 29 down and 2 flats, strayed positive with 3 up/ 31 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 1/34 and 0 flat.
- Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 27 up/ 8 down and 0 flat, strayed negative with 16 up/ 17 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 21/13 and 1 flat.
- Monday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 31 up/ 4 down and 0 flat, stayed positive with 29 up/ 6 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 33/2 and 0 flat.
Pre-open Indications: 4 Hit <Agenus (AGEN +$0.11), Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI $0.00), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.50), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.15)> 2 Miss < Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.0080), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.36)> 1 Pump/Promote < Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG+$0.23)
- Friday - Sector volume was LOW with 3 of the 27-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 2 of 4-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
- Thursday - Sector volume was LOW with 1 of the 15-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 4 of 19-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
- Wednesday - Sector volume was LOW with 0 of the 1-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 13 of 34-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
- Tuesday - Sector volume was LOW with 4 of the 21-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 2 of 13-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
- Monday - Sector volume was LOW with 7 of the 33-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 1 of 2-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Friday, the IBB was up +2.82% and the XBI was up +2.79 %
- Thursday, the IBB was down -0.80% and the XBI was down -0.53%
- Wednesday, the IBB was down -3.41% and the XBI was down -4.90%
- Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.18% and the XBI was up +0.53%
- Monday, the IBB was up +2.41% and the XBI was up +3.71%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Friday was up +0.08 points or +0.27% at 30.06
- Thursday was down -0.66 points or -2.15% at 30.10
- Wednesday was up +0.26 points or +0.85% at 30.76
- Tuesday was down -0.58 points or -1.85% at 30.79
- Monday was down -0.74 points or -2.31% at 31.28
Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 27):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$5.87 after Thursday’s +$0.98, Wednesday’s -$2.05, Tuesday’s -$1.04 and Monday’s +$9.56),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.84 after Thursday’s -$1.00, Wednesday’s -$3.20 after Tuesday’s -$0.12 and Monday’s +$2.70),
- Vericel (VCEL +$0.76 after Thursday’s +$0.05),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.58 after Thursday’s +$0.42, Wednesday’s -$2.05, Tuesday’s +$ 0.60 and Monday’s +$1.80),
- Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.66 after Thursday’s -$0.17, Wednesday’s -$1.47, Tuesday’s +$1.15 and Monday’s +$1.24),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA+$0.61 after Thursday’s -$3.31, Wednesday’s -$2.41, Tuesday +$0.54 after Monday’s +$2.20),
- Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.52 after Thursday’s -$0.20),
- UniQure NV (QURE +$0.60 after Thursday’s +$0.05),
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.57 after Thursday’s +$0.17),
- Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.54 after Thursday’s +$0.14),
- Compass Therapeutics (CMPX),
- Precigen (PGEN),
- Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI),
- Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM),
Closing down (4 of 4):
- CRISP Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.45 after Thursday’s -$2.78, Wednesday’s +$2.83, Tuesday’s +$0.57 and Monday’s +$2.26),
- Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0,24 after Thursday’s +$0.04),
- Avrobio (AVR) -$0.0066),
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.0027),
Q4 - October
- Friday closed positive with 27 incliner, 4 decliners and 4 flats
- Thursday closed negative with 15 incliner, 19 decliners and 1 flat
- Wednesday closed negative with 1 incliner, 34 decliners and 1 flat
- Tuesday closed positive with 21 incliner, 13 decliners and 1 flat
- Monday closed positive with 33 incliner, 2 decliners and 1 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: The algorithms were on OUR side today capturing the down sliders in their upside “rule” arms!
I try to keep it simple … and short!
We will be seeing what October brings – Q3 earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season and a whole lot of economic indicators.
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) is the first to declare is Q3 earnings report on Thursday, 10/27 at 8:30 a.m. MiMedx (MDXG) comes in second on 11/2, Wednesday at 5 p.m.; AxoGen (AXGN) on 11/8, Tuesday at 8 a.m.
Remember, historically October has NEVER been a good month for equities.
DISPOSE Avrobio (AVRO) who experiences news and the stock drops after a de-listing notice while the management DID NOTHING to AVOID this dilemma while president, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?
· AVRO closed down -$0.0066 after Thursday (down) -$0.0065 after Wednesday’s -$0.0322 to $0.65, Tuesday +$0.07 after ILAP designation from the UK news after Monday’s +$0.02 to $0.60 which STILL does NOT get close to the $1.00 to continue its Nasdaq listing after a delisting notice.
· AVRO’s 40th session of under $1.00,
· Will AVRO have to “commission" a stock reverse to address delisting?
WHY can’t Applied Genetic Technologies get out from under the “boulder” of share pricing compression – ask Sue Washer, CEO … she has NEVER had the right answers for the past two (2) years, time for a management change …
· Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) closed barely up +$0.0075 after Thursday’s -$0.0046 on Thursday after Wednesday’s -$0.0080 and Tuesday’s BARELY up of +$0.0022.
· AGTC has now 19 sessions into getting delisted (under $1.00)
Isn’t this Verastem Oncology’s (VSTM) 21st session of being UNDER $1.00 heading for de-listing under Nasdaq
October has 1 neutral, 8 positive and 6 negative closes;
As I continually question, “The real question that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash?
Start by looking at cell and gene therapy companies trading below cash!”
I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.