October 25, 2022 7:49am
Monday, the market popped and the sector dropped; seeing more weakness
News: AVROBIO (AVRO -$0.02 pre-open) announced that the sixth and final patient has been dosed in the collaborator-sponsored, P1/2 clinical trial of an investigational gene therapy for the treatment of cystinosis. Cystinosis is a life-threatening disease that causes progressive multi-organ damage, including early, acute kidney disease progressing to end-stage kidney disease.
Indications: 2 BUY Dips, 3 Negative Indication, and 1 Pump/Promote (BSTG – the usual suspect)
A daily report may say little or a lot and its final judgement may be inconclusive; yet it serves as insurance that all indications are being examined and evaluated.
Why do I keep writing this blog/newsletter to inform investors, what they need to hear that others won’t say or write! Insight is about understanding perception and also about putting into context what is relevant to expectation fulfillment
8:00 a.m. edition
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session.
Dow futures are DOWN -0.31% or (-99 points), S&P futures are DOWN -0.18% or (-6 points) and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.05% or (+6 points) early in the pre-open – so far,
Stock futures are down and fluctuating on Tuesday,
European markets were mixed
Asia Pacific markets rose while Hong Kong stocks were volatile while mainland China markets continued to slide.
Indexes rose Monday as traders tried to add to sharp gains seen last week and weighed the latest moves in rates.
The Dow closed UP +417.06 points (+1.34%), the S&P closed UP +44.61 points (+1.19%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +92.90 points (+0.86%)
“Earnings reports cause many of the largest moves in stocks … The stock market's reaction to an earnings release can often tell you more than the earnings themselves. If the results seem strong but the stock slides anyway, investors may be concerned about the sustainability of growth, rising costs or other potential negatives.” <CNBC>
Economic Data Docket: S&P Case-Shiller U.S. home price index (SAAR) for Aug., FHFA U.S. home price index (SAAR) for Aug. and Consumer confidence index
Monday’s … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “sector rains on last week’s parade” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12665
Ebb and flow:
Q4 – 1 neutral, 8 positive and 7 negative closes
· September – 1 holiday, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
· August – 1 neutral, 11 positive and 11 negative closes
· July - 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: INDICATIONS
Agenus (AGEN) closed down -$0.03 to $2.61 after Friday’s +$0.10, Thursday’s -$0.05, Wednesday’s-$0.13 and last Tuesday’s +$0.04 following the previous Monday’s +$0.24 with a negative -$0.01 or -0.38% pre-open indication,
Solid Biosciences (SLDB) closed up =$0.0088 to +$0.4561 after Friday’s down -$0.0027, Thursday’s $0.0026, Wednesday’s -$0.0226 and last Tuesday’s +$0.0073 following the previous Monday’s +$0.0064 with a negative -$0.03 or -7.04% pre-open indication. Sharpen your pencil – new investment and management coming from Bain funds,
Avrobio (AVRO) closed up =$0.0291 to $0.6791 after Friday’s -$0.0066 with a negative -$0.02 or -2.78% pre-open indication. The 41th session of being under Nasdaq’s $1.00 listing requirement.
Ultragenyx (RARE) closed down -$1.35 to $37.14 after Friday’s +$0.66, Thursday’s -$0.17, Wednesday’s -$1.47 last Tuesday’s +$1.15 following the previous Monday’s +$1.24 with a negative -$1.12 or -3.02% pre-open indication.
Verve Therapeutics (VERV) closed up +$1.65 to $33.65 after Friday’s +$0.58, Thursday’s +$0.42, Wednesday’s -$2.05 and last Tuesday’s + 0.60 following the previous Monday’s +$1.80 with a negative -$1.01 or -3$ pre-open indication,
Puff/Pump and Promote: Maintaining SELL
Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) closed down -$0.75 with 3,035 shares traded after Friday’s +$0.23 with 1,082 shares traded and Thursday’s -$0.08 with 2,031 shares traded <3-month average = 2,190 shares>
Questions need to be answered and they NEVER are for shareholders; as the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution does guarantee the “freedom of speech, or of the press” … but I guess NOT to respond?
Who, WHAT and WHERE are pumping and promoting the “spikes” in volume and share price … coming from?
- What is DST Capital? Is DST Capital really managed by Mrs. bin Zhao of Weston, Mass and Hong Yu, president of BSTG? Is LIU Dong-hai chairman of D. Phone, one of the largest smartphone retailers in China and Dixintong Technology group; the ultimate funder of DST Capital?
- Consider the attrition rate of the past five (5) years: two (2) CEOs, one (1) CMO who became president, one (1) employee who became president, three (5) CFOs, one (1) interim CFO who walked-out over bringing irregularities to interim management in an audit review, three (3) controllers, a VP of Finance who left without notice and reappeared as a consultant twice, five (5) members of the board of directors of which four (4) were on the audit committee, three (3) other operating VPs and twenty (20) scientific employees. And, three (3) or is it four (4) accounting firms in five years.
- Would you TRUST this management team
The BOTTOM LINE: WHAT CHANGES … the roller-coaster continues to run supplied by electronic trading and algorithmic “rules”.
Reiterating, “Set aside volatility and there still aren't good reasons to be invested now; companies are saving ANY news for the earnings season.”
Sign of the times for a few gene therapy companies (?) … Syncona (SYNC) to acquire Applied Genetic Technologies Corporation (AGTC).
· Applied Genetic Technologies (AGTC) just couldn’t get out from under the “boulder” of share pricing compression. Sue Washer, CEO NEVER had the right answers for the past two (2) years and it was FINALLY recognized by the BOD. I wrote it was a “more than a shame” as to the acquisition.
· I really felt (an opinion) it was “criminal” to wait so long to recognize AGTC’s “position” by Sue Washer, CEO and president.
· while negotiating to pocket almost $1,473,567 million in 2022 with a potential of another same amount in severance foe selling-out shareholders?
Companies NEED transparency and advantage of good practices in relation to outreach to investors which means … NOT to enrich themselves at shareholder’s expense!
Reiterating, “I try to keep it simple … and short …
We will be seeing what October brings – Q3 earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season and a whole lot of economic indicators.
The final Q4 is HERE … and then back to earnings season which could be a minefield:
· Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) is the first to declare is Q3 earnings report on Thursday, 10/27 at 8:30 a.m. MiMedx (MDXG) comes in second on 11/2 at 5 p.m. Fate therapeutics (FATE) on Thursday, 11/3 at 5 p.m., followed by AxoGen (AXGN) on 11/8 at 8a.m.
· If you have gains, you might want to lock-in profit if any … before earnings season begins!
Reiterating, “I believe the sector is showing mixed signals, some BUYs more SELLs – yet I also believe we should BUY Agenus (AGEN) and Solid Biosciences (SLDB).
DISPOSE of Avrobio (AVRO) who experiences news and the stock drops after a de-listing notice while the management DID NOTHING to AVOID this dilemma while president, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?
AVRO closed up Monday +$0.0291 after Friday’s down -$0.0066, Thursday (down) -$0.0065, Wednesday’s -$0.0322 to $0.65, Tuesday +$0.07 after ILAP designation from the UK news after Monday’s +$0.02 to $0.60 which STILL does NOT get close to the $1.00 to continue its Nasdaq listing after a delisting notice.
· Where is the upside coming from to “solve” the de-listing “position” on Nasdaq?
· Will AVRO have to “commission" a stock reverse to address its delisting?
· OR, will they “pull” an AGTC?
When it comes time to invest or even hold onto an investment; I’d say … focus on what percentage ownership of stock … NOT options CEOs and management teams own versus their salary and bonus.
Amid the ongoing cell and gene therapy sector volatility, “our” universe’s trend remains " in correction." That means that investors are safer on the sidelines as again … earnings are coming.
As I continually write, “The real question that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash?
Start by looking at cell and gene therapy companies trading below cash!”
My guide to 'good news seems to be bad news' and 'bad news is good news. 'In normal times, no one really questions whether good news in the economy is actually good.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication.