October 27, 2022 4:43pm
As usual prognostication was early … again after I wrote, “I’d be evaluating position that should be “shucked” to cash not reveling about the peaks”
Pre-open indications: 4 Hit, 2 Miss and 1 Pump/Promote (BSTG- the usual suspect)
Earnings: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) Q3 net loss of -$405.9 M or -$2.32 per share; missing estimates of share loss and revenues with a cash position of $2.27 billion
It’s an honor to be considered the “canary in the (sector) coal mine”! I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors in the perception of sector vulnerabilities and strengths
It’s more than opinion, the facts and truth need to be recognized! Why do I keep writing this blog/newsletter; to inform investors, what others won’t say or write
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed UP +198.72 points (+0.62%), the S&P closed DOWN -22.74 points (-0.60%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN – 178.32 points (-1.63%)
Thursday closed with indexes mixed with the Dow thriving.
Economic Data Docket: GDP increased at a 2.6% annualized pace for the period, against the Dow Jones estimate for 2.3% growth.
- The GDP report provided at least some good news on inflation. The chain-weighted price index, a cost-of-living measure that is adjusted to reflect changing consumer behavior, rose 4.1% for the quarter, well below the 5.3% estimate. Headline inflation rose 4.2%, down sharply from 7.3%, according to a gauge the Federal Reserve uses.
RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “I’m anxious and fearful. Wednesday was a strange day for the market, the Nasdaq tumbled at the open erasing losses by late morning, but then indexes faded back toward session lows although the sector did close positive which underscores the need for caution today “… https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12670
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened
- Thursday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 17 up/ 16 down and 2 flats, strayed negative with 15 up/ 19 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 4/30 and 1 flat.
Pre-open Indications: 4 Hit < Avrobio (AVRO -$0.0104), Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$1.03), BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.28), CRISP Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.84)> 2 Miss < Agenus (AGEN -$0.17), Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.0061)> 1 Pump/Promote <Biostage (BSTG +$0.20)>
- Thursday - Sector volume was LOW with 0 of the 5-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 4 of 30-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Thursday, the IBB was down -1.36% and the XBI was down -1.28%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Thursday was down -0.04 points or -0.15% at 27.24
Jumping with share pricing momentum (4 of 4):
- Prime Therapeutics (PRME +$0.89),
- Biostage (BSTG +$0.20),
- Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.01 after Wednesday’s -$0.02, Tuesday’s -$0.02 and Monday’s +$0.08),
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.0089 after Wednesday’s -$0.0093),
- Cellectis SA (CLLS)
Closing down (10 of 30):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$7.02 after Wednesday’s +$2.46, Tuesday’s +$2.71 and Monday’s -$3.03),
- CRISP Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.84 after Wednesday’s +$2.75, Tuesday’s +$2.05 and Monday’s -$0.44),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.24 after Wednesday’s +$0.81, Tuesday’s +$3.19 and Monday’s -$1.41),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$1.03 after Wednesday’s +$2.16, Tuesday’s +$1.19 and Monday’s +$1.65),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.84),
- uniQure NV (QURE -$0.79 after Wednesday’s -$0.01),
- Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.64),
- Vericel (VCEL -$0.51 after Wednesday’s +$1.05, Tuesday’s +$0.81 after Monday’s -$0.38)
- Chinook therapeutics (KDNY -$0.41),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.40 after Wednesday’s +$1.34, Tuesday’s +$2.55 and Monday’s -$1.55),
Q4 - October
- Thursday closed negative with 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
Kenny Storch at BTIG, states there are 226 public biotech companies trading below cash currently. With 1 out of 5 in the Nasdaq Biotech Index trading below cash. <I have also been stating the same theme!>
We will be seeing what October brings – Q3 earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season and a whole lot of economic indicators.
Q4 is HERE and we are back into Q3 earnings season which could be a minefield:
· Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) today
· MiMedx (MDXG), Ultragenyx (RARE) and Editas Medicine (EDIT) on 11/2 at 5 p.m.
· Fate therapeutics (FATE) on Thursday, 11/3,
· AxoGen (AXGN) on 11/8,
· Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) on Wednesday, 11/9
If you have gains, you might want to lock-in profit if any … before earnings season begins!
DISPOSE Avrobio (AVRO) who experiences news (completion of dosing) on Tuesday and the stock drops following a de-listing notice while the management DID NOTHING to AVOID this dilemma while president, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?
· AVRO closed down -$0.0171 to $0.66which STILL does NOT get close to the $1.00 to continue its Nasdaq listing after a delisting notice.
· AVRO’s 44th session of under $1.00,
· Will AVRO have to “commission" a stock reverse to address delisting?
· Or, will they “pull” an AGTC and get acquired by a shell?
Isn’t this Verastem Oncology’s (VSTM) closed up +$0.0047 after Wednesday’s $0.0352 after Tuesday’s +$0.03 to $0.33 after Monday’s down -$0.0045 to $0.307; its 25th session of being UNDER $1.00 heading for de-listing under Nasdaq
October has 1 neutral, 10 positive and 8 negative closes;
As I continually question, “The real question that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash?
I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.