October 28, 2022 4:53pm

Don’t hold-on too tight, you’ll drown in the downside; a contrarian view that make money

Pre-open indications: 3 Hit and 5 Miss (when you’re selling on these indications; investors will have increased powder post earnings “shuffle”

The Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) Chronicles: SEC Form S-1/A filed Prospectus for unit offering - https://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=101533&ref=117017206&type=HTML&formType=S-1%2FA&dateFiled=2022-10-27&cik=0001563665&CK=1563665&symbol=0001563665&companyName=Biostage

It’s an honor to be considered the “canary in the (sector) coal mine”!  I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors in the perception of sector vulnerabilities and strengths

It’s more than opinion, the facts and truth need to be recognized! Why do I keep writing this blog/newsletter; to inform investors, what others won’t say or write

TGIF, the week in review …

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +828.06 points (+2.59%), the S&P closed UP +93.73 points (+2.46%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +309.78 points (+2.87%)

 

Henry’omics: facts and supporting numbers versus opinion

Indexes jumped on Friday, buoyed by upbeat tech results from Apple, with investors hoping that some signs of economic weakness would lead to the Fed slowing down the pace of its interest rate hikes soon.

An interesting and targeted quote, “In big tech, earnings have been more negative than positive, but outside of tech it's been more positively skewed in the areas that are more indicative of the Main Street economy," said Keith Buchanan, portfolio manager at GLOBALT in Atlanta. "It’s easy to miss the forest for the trees."

The Dow is up more than 5% this week in its best since May. It’s also on track for its best month since January 1976; while the S&P 500 is up +3.8% and the Nasdaq 2.1%.

Economic Data Docket: U.S. consumer spending rose more than expected in September, but private industry wage growth slowed considerably in the third quarter and underlying inflation still remained high.

·         The indicators did little to change expectations of a 75-basis point rate hike by the Fed next week, but investors are pinning their hopes on the central bank taking a less aggressive approach by delivering a 50-basis points hike in December.

·         Signed contracts to buy previously owned homes in the U.S. plunged more than expected in September as rising mortgage rates and higher home prices continued to push entry-level homebuyers out of the market.

·         The National Association of Realtors: its pending home sales index tumbled 10.2% in September compared with the same month one year ago. On a monthly basis, pending home sales dropped 5% — more than double the 2% decline projected by Refinitiv economists.

 

RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “what’s to deal with beforehand that might hinder sector’s progress in November? Coming close to month’s end on Monday, will the decks be cleared today, Friday?” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12673

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened

  • Friday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 14 up/ 21 down and 0 flat, flipped positive with 29 up/ 6 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 28/6 and 1 flat.
  • Thursday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 17 up/ 16 down and 2 flats, strayed negative with 15 up/ 19 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 4/30 and 1 flat.
  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 26 up/ 7 down and 2 flats, stayed positive with 28 up/6 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 23/12 and 0 flat.
  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 32 up/ 2 down and 1 flat, stayed positive with 30 up/5 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 28/5 and 2 flats.
  • Monday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 6 up/ 27 down and 2 flats, stayed negative with 10 up/25 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 9/26 and 0 flat.

 

Pre-open Indications: 3 Hit < Agenus (AGEN +$0.11), Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.70), Biostage (BSTG -$0.20)> 5 Miss < Prime Therapeutics (PRME +$1.35), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.90), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$2.43), CRISP Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.40), Intellia therapeutics (NTLA +$1.93).

 

Key Metrics:

  • Friday - Sector volume was LOW with 5 of the 28-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 3 of 6-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
  • Thursday - Sector volume was LOW with 0 of the 5-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 4 of 30-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
  • Wednesday - Sector volume was LOW with 6 of the 23-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 4 of 12-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
  • Tuesday - Sector volume was LOW with 5 of the 28-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 1 of 5-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
  • Monday - Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 9-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 3 of 26-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was up +3.84% and the XBI was up +3.52%
  • Thursday, the IBB was down -1.36% and the XBI was down -1.28%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was up +1.58% and the XBI was up +1.66%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was up +2.01% and the XBI was up +2.68%
  • Monday, the IBB was up +1.06% and the XBI was down -0.47%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -1.37 points or -5% at 26.02
  • Thursday was down -0.04 points or -0.15% at 27.24
  • Wednesday was down -0.99 points or -3.48% at 27.47
  • Tuesday was down -1.52 points or -5.09% at 28.33
  • Monday was up +0.20 points or +0.67% at 29.89

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 28):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$10.51 after Thursday’s -$7.02, Wednesday’s +$2.46, Tuesday’s +$2.71 and Monday’s -$3.03),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$4.73 after Thursday’s -$1.03, Wednesday’s +$2.16, Tuesday’s +$1.19 and Monday’s +$1.65),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$2.43 after Thursday’s -$1.24, Wednesday’s +$0.81, Tuesday’s +$3.19 and Monday’s -$1.41),
  • CRISP Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.93 after Thursday’s -$2.84, Wednesday’s +$2.75, Tuesday’s +$2.05 and Monday’s -$0.44),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.87 after Thursday’s -$0.40, Wednesday’s +$1.34, Tuesday’s +$2.55 and Monday’s -$1.55),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.65),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.43 after Thursday’s -$0.64),
  • Prime Therapeutics (PRME +$1.35 after Thursday’s +$0.89),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.17),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.15),

Flat (1):

  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM)

Closing down (6 of 6):

  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.70 after reverse split),
  • Biostage (BSTG -$0.20 with 3,556 shares traded after draft prospectus filed after Thursday’s +$0.20),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.07),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.04),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.03),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.0145 after Thursday’s +$0.0089 after Wednesday’s -$0.0093),

 

Q4 - October

  • Friday closed positive with 28 incliner, 6 decliners and 1 flat
  • Thursday closed negative with 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 flat
  • Wednesday closed positive with 23 incliner, 12 decliners and 0 flat
  • Tuesday closed positive with 28 incliner, 5 decliners and 2 flats
  • Monday closed negative with 9 incliner, 26 decliners and 0 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Friday ends the week as a choppy month slowly comes to a close.

  I try to keep it simple … and short!

Kenny Storch at BTIG, states there are 226 public biotech companies trading below cash currently. With 1 out of 5 in the Nasdaq Biotech Index trading below cash. <I have also been stating the same theme!>

We will be seeing what October brings – Q3 earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season and a whole lot of economic indicators.

Q4 is HERE and we are back into Q3 earnings season which could be a minefield:

·         MiMedx (MDXG), Ultragenyx (RARE) and Editas Medicine (EDIT) on 11/2 at 5 p.m.

·         Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Cellectis SA (CLLS), Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) and Regenxbio (RGNX) on Thursday, 11/3,

·         AxoGen (AXGN) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) on 11/8,

·         Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Vericel (VCEL) on Wednesday, 11/9

If you have gains, you might want to lock-in profit if any … before earnings season begins!

DISPOSE Avrobio (AVRO) who experiences news (completion of dosing) on Thursday and Tuesday as the stock drops following a de-listing notice while the management DID NOTHING to AVOID this dilemma while president, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?

·         AVRO closed up a barely +$0.0083 to $0.69 after Thursday’s down -$0.0171 to $0.66 which STILL does NOT get close to the $1.00 to continue its Nasdaq listing after a delisting notice.

·         AVRO’s 45th session of under $1.00,

·         Will AVRO have to “commission" a stock reverse to address delisting?

·         Or, will they “pull” an AGTC and get acquired by a shell?

Isn’t this Verastem Oncology’s (VSTM); its 26th session of being UNDER $1.00 heading for de-listing under Nasdaq

October has 1 neutral, 11 positive and 8 negative closes;

As I continually question, “The real question that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.