November 1, 2022 4:45pm
The risk of earnings releases enhances trepidation for sector
Pre-open indications: 4 Hit and 3 Miss
Earnings: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) had a Q3 net loss of -$174.5 million or -$2.24 per share with a cash position of $1.973 million with a 2023 runway
The Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG closed -$0.00) Chronicles: SEC Form S-1/A filed Prospectus for unit offering …https://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=101533&ref=117017206&type=HTML&formType=S-1%2FA&dateFiled=2022-10-27&cik=0001563665&CK=1563665&symbol=0001563665&companyName=Biostage ; A lot of issues in DRAFT prospectus - reliance on past financials - copies exist of "lost" recieveables?
It’s an honor to be considered the “canary in the (sector) coal mine”! I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors in the perception of sector vulnerabilities and strengths
It’s more than opinion, the facts and truth need to be recognized! Why do I keep writing this blog/newsletter; to inform investors, what others won’t say or write
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed DOWN -82.12 points (-0.25%), the S&P closed DOWN -15.96 points (-0.41%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN – 97.30 points (-0.89%)
Indexes tumbled on Tuesday as November commenced. Traders also assessed better-than-expected economic data and what it spells for Fed policy decision on Wednesday.
Indexes are coming off a strong month of gains as the Dow rallied nearly 14% in October, its biggest monthly advance since January 1976 while the S&P 500 jumped +8%and Nasdaq added +3.9%.
A HOPEFULL sign of the future … Abiomed (ABMD) surged 50% (+50.31% or +126.91) after it has agreed to be acquired by Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) for $16.6 billion in cash.
Economic Data Docket: The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) survey, which found that job openings unexpectedly rose in September to 10.7 million from 10.28 million last month. Economists had expected openings to decrease to about 10 million. Also, the October ISM manufacturing PMI index fell to 50.2, while economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimated 50.0. The ISM manufacturing employment index rose to 50.0 from 48.7, as economists surveyed by Bloomberg surveyed estimated 53.0.
RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “the ups, the downs and the uglies i.e., share pricing. Liquidity and ensuing volatility are issues, I don't believe the cell and gene therapy sector has bottomed out … yet!’ … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12677
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened
- Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 28 up/ 6 down and 1 flat, stayed positive with 30 up/4 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 26/5 and 4 flat.
Pre-open Indications: 4 Hit < Agenus (AGEN +$0.00), Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.11), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.90), Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG -$0.00)> 3 Miss < CRISP Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.32), Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$1.26), Prime Therapeutics (PRME +$2.30),
- Tuesday - Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 26-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 0 of 5-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.90% and the XBI was up +0.82%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Tuesday was down -0.17points or -0.66% at 25.71
Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 26):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$5.86 after Monday’s +$2.75),
- Prime Therapeutics (PRME +$2.30 after Monday’s +$0.17),
- Ultragenyx (RARE +$3.63 after Monday’s -$0.30),
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.06),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.63 after Monday’s -$0.41),
- Vericel (VCEL +$0.49 after Monday’s +$0.53),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.49 after Monday’s +$0.19),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.43 after Monday’s -$1.25),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.30 after Monday’s -$4.68),
- Compass therapeutics (CMPX +$0.26),
- Agenus (AGEN),
- Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI),
- Biostage (BSTG),
- Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO),
Closing down (5 of 5):
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$1,26 after Monday’s -$3.00),
- CRISP Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.32 after Monday’s -$1.95),
- AxoGen (AXGN -$0.25),
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.11 after Monday’s +$0.30 and after Friday's reverse split),
- Caribou Therapeutics (CRBU -$0.06),
Q4 - October
- Monday closed positive with 26 incliner, 5 decliners and 4 flats
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
Kenny Storch at BTIG, states there are 226 public biotech companies trading below cash currently. With 1 out of 5 in the Nasdaq Biotech Index trading below cash. <I have also been stating the same theme!>
We will be seeing what October brings – Q3 earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season and a whole lot of economic indicators.
Q4 is HERE and we are back into Q3 earnings season which could be a minefield:
· CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) - today
· MiMedx (MDXG), Ultragenyx (RARE) and Editas Medicine (EDIT) on 11/2 at 5 p.m.
· Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Cellectis SA (CLLS), Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) and Regenxbio (RGNX) on Thursday, 11/3,
· AxoGen (AXGN) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) on 11/8,
· Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Vericel (VCEL) on Wednesday, 11/9
If you have gains, you might want to lock-in profit if any … before earnings season begins!
DISPOSE Avrobio (AVRO) who experiences news (completion of dosing) on Thursday and Tuesday as the stock drops following a de-listing notice while the management DID NOTHING to AVOID this dilemma while president, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?
· AVRO closed up +$0.01 to $0.69 which STILL does NOT get close to the $1.00 to continue its Nasdaq listing after a delisting notice.
· AVRO’s 467h session of under $1.00,
· Will AVRO have to “commission" a stock reverse to address delisting?
· Or, will they “pull” an AGTC and get acquired by a shell?
Isn’t this Verastem Oncology’s (VSTM +$0.01 to $0.43); its 28th session of being UNDER $1.00 heading for de-listing under Nasdaq
As I continually question, “The real question that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash?
I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.