November 4, 2022 5:06pm

Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) back to its usual “tricks” pumping the volume and share pricing yet, only +$0.01 with 2,953 shares traded – I can’t make this up!

Indication Results: 5 Hits and 5 Miss

News: Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$2.94 or -6.61%) loses its partner – Bayer AG (OTC: BAYRY) but, it retains its Thrombosis candidate – so what?

It’s an honor to be considered the “canary in the (sector) coal mine”!  I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors in the perception of sector vulnerabilities and strengths

It’s more than opinion, the facts and truth need to be recognized! Why do I keep writing this blog/newsletter; to inform investors, what others won’t say or write

The week in review – it gets uglier as LPS (loss-per-share) earnings collapse the sector 

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +403.55 points (+1.26%), the S&P closed UP +50.68 points (+1.36%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +132.31 points (+1.28%)

 

Henry’omics:

Indexes rallied on Friday, but finished the week lower as the latest payroll numbers rise focusing future questionable Fed rate hikes.

All the major indexes are on track to close out the week with losses, with the Dow down -2.5% and set to end four weeks of gains; while the S&P are down -4.5% and the Nasdaq is down -67.1%.

Another sign of the times, Rubius Therapeutics (RUBY) is crashing down -$0.02 to $0.32; “initiated a process to explore a range of strategic alternatives and plans to engage an investment bank to act as a strategic advisor for this process” a.k.a. – it’s done … having reduced its workforce by 84%. As it joins AGTC and the coming dive of AVRO!

Economic Data Docket: October’s nonfarm payrolls report on Friday left investors divided, fueling some concern that the Fed will persist with its hiking campaign since the labor market added 261,000 jobs. Others interpreted the findings as a sign that labor is beginning to cool — albeit at a slow pace — since the unemployment rate rose to 3.7%. <CNBC>

 

RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “We need to understand the macro to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies as sentiment and conviction have been kept on a leash.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12684

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened

  • Friday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 11 up/ 22 down and 2 flats, stayed negative with 6 up/ 28 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 10/25 and 0 flat.
  • Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 9 up/ 24 down and 1 flat, stayed negative with 7 up/ 28 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 12/23 and 0 flat.
  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 9 up/ 24 down and 1 flat, stayed negative with 14 up/ 19 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 7/28 and 0 flat.
  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 28 up/ 6 down and 1 flat, stayed positive with 30 up/4 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 26/5 and 4 flat.
  • Monday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 7 up/ 25 down and 3 flats, flipped barely positive with 16 up/15 down and 4 flats at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 13/22 and 0 flat.

 

Pre-open Indications: 5 Hit < uniQure NV (QURE -$0.43), Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.32), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$2.90), Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.39)> 5 Miss < Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG +$0.01), Prime Therapeutics (PRME +$1.58), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.67), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$2.94), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.85>)

 

Key Metrics:

  • Friday - Sector volume was LOW with 6 of the 10-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 10 of 25 downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
  • Thursday - Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 12-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 5 of 23 downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
  • Wednesday - Sector volume was LOW with 5 of the 7-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 4 of 28-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
  • Tuesday - Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 26-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 0 of 5-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
  • Monday - Sector volume was LOW with 3 of the 13-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 2 of 22-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was up +0.25% and the XBI was down -0.83%
  • Thursday, the IBB was up +0.44% and the XBI was down -0.68%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was down -1.67% and the XBI was down -1.98%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.90% and the XBI was up +0.82%
  • Monday, the IBB was down -0.84% and the XBI was down -1.92%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -0.64 points or -2.53% at 24.66
  • Thursday was down -0.66 points or -2.55% at 25.20
  • Wednesday was up +0.09points or +0.35% at 25.90
  • Tuesday was down -0.17points or -0.66% at 25.71
  • Monday was up +0.11 points or +0.43% at 25.84

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 10):

  • Prime Therapeutics (PRME +$1.58 after Thursday’s -$1.67, Wednesday’s -$0.81, Tuesday’s +$2.30 and Monday’s +$0.17),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.39 after Thursday’s -$0.59 and Wednesday’s -$0.95),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.21 after Wednesday’s +$0.36 and PIPE news after Tuesday’s +$0.26),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.34 after Thursday’s +$0.04, Wednesday’s -$0.52 and Tuesday’s -$0.25),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.09),
  • MiMedx (MDXG =$0.05 after Thursday’s +$0.15),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.0412),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.02),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.02 after Thursday’s +$0.11),
  • Compass therapeutics (CMPX +$0.01),
  • Biostage (BSTG +$0.01 after Thursday’s -$0.09, Wednesday’s -$0.05, Tuesday’s $0.00 and Monday’s -$0.85),

Closing down (10 of 25):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$7.38 after Thursday’s +$1.37, Wednesday’s +$1.23, Tuesday’s +$5.86 and Monday’s +$2.75),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$5.93 after Thursday’s +$0.28, Wednesday’s +$0.03, Tuesday’s +$0.49 and Monday’s +$0.19),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$2.94 after Thursday’s -$0.19),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$2.90 after Thursday’s -$2.42, Wednesday’s -$1.34, Tuesday’s +$3.63 and Monday’s -$0.30),
  • CRISP Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.06 after Thursday’s -$1.44, Wednesday’s +$2.66, Tuesday’s -$0.32 and Monday’s -$1.95),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.85 after Thursday’s -$0.27 and Wednesday’s -$0.98),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$1.56),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.21 after Thursday’s +$0.41, Wednesday’s -0.76, Tuesday’s +$0.30 and Monday’s -$4.68),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$1.03 after Thursday’s -$2.26, Wednesday’s -$1.86, Tuesday’s -$1,26 after Monday’s -$3.00),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.67 after Thursday’s +$0.51, Wednesday’s -$2.11, Tuesday’s +$0.43 and Monday’s -$1.25),

 

Q4 – November

  • Friday closed negative with 10 incliner, 25 decliners and 0 flat
  • Thursday closed negative with 12 incliner, 23 decliners and 0 flat
  • Wednesday closed negative with 7 incliner, 28 decliners and 0 flat
  • Tuesday closed negative with 7 incliner, 28 decliners and 0 flat
  • Monday closed positive with 26 incliner, 5 decliners and 4 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  I try to keep it simple … and short!

I keep repeating a “mantra” for effect, “Kenny Storch at BTIG, states there are 226 public biotech companies trading below cash currently. With 1 out of 5 in the Nasdaq Biotech Index trading below cash.” <I have also been stating the same theme!>

We will be seeing what October brings – Q3 earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season and a whole lot of economic indicators.

Q4 is HERE and we are back into Q3 earnings season which could be a minefield:

·         AxoGen (AXGN) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) on 11/8,

·         Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Vericel (VCEL) on Wednesday, 11/9

If you have gains, you might want to lock-in profit if any … before earnings season begins!

DISPOSE Avrobio (AVRO) who experiences news (completion of dosing) as the stock drops following a de-listing notice while the management DID NOTHING to AVOID this dilemma while president, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?

·         AVRO closed down -$0.02 to $0.65 which STILL does NOT get close to the $1.00 to continue its Nasdaq listing after a delisting notice.

·         AVRO’s 497h session of under $1.00,

·         Will AVRO have to “commission" a stock reverse to address delisting?

·         Or, will they “pull” an AGTC and get acquired by a shell?

Isn’t this Verastem Oncology’s (VSTM -$0.0088 to $0.389); its 31th session of being UNDER $1.00 heading for de-listing under Nasdaq.

As I continually question, “The real question that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.