November 9, 2022 5:05pm
News: Avrobio (AVRO) filed a S-3 for $250 million common stock, preferred stock, debt securities, warrants and unit offering within draft prospectus by Cowen as stock sinks while delisting continues? Just another “screw-job” of investors! < Read, SELL and Weep - see hyperlink below>
Indication Results: 6 Hits and 4 Miss
Earnings: Vericel (VCEL) had a Q3 net loss of -$6.6 million or -$0.14 per share with a cash position of $133 million and a 2025 runway. Compass Therapeutics (CMPX) had a Q3 net loss of -$12 million or -$0.12 per share with a cash position of $120.6 million (with $76 PIPE 11/22) and a 2025 runway. Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) had a Q3 net loss of -$47 million or -$0.33 per share with a cash position of $2 billion (with $240 million 10/22 leaseback) and a 2025 runway. Precigen (PGEN) had a Q3 net loss of -$7.6 million or -$0.04 per share with a cash position of $153.8 million and a 2024 runway. BioLife Solutions (BLFS) had a Q3 net loss of -$9.95 million or -$0.23 per share with a cash position of $62.1 million (with $20 million loan) and a 2024 runway.
It’s an honor to be considered the “canary in the (sector) coal mine”! It’s more than opinion, the facts and truth need to be recognized! Why do I keep writing this blog/newsletter; to inform investors, what others won’t say or write
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed DOWN -646.89 points (-1.95%), the S&P closed DOWN -79.54 points (-2.08%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -263.02 points (-2.48%)
We need to understand the macro to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes were lower on Wednesday — following recent market gains — as results of the midterm elections provided no clear answers about who would control Congress yet.
Election results are still uncertain, but the red wave that models, investors, and betting markets anticipated did not materialize, and near-term, that will add to already elevated volatility.” <Dennis DeBusschere>
Economic Data Docket: Thursday’s consumer price index report at 8:30 a.m. will give further insight into how far the Fed needs to go to bring down inflation.
- The most-closely tracked inflation number is forecast to rise 0.7%, higher than September's 0.4%, for an annualized rate of 8%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to rise 0.5%, slightly less than September's 0.6%. This would yield an annualized rate of 6.6%.
Avrobio (AVRO) files S-3 (Registration Statement) for offering with draft prospectus by Cowen … https://investors.avrobio.com/node/9116/html
- A SCREW-JOB for investors ...
Wednesday’s … RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “stock futures trade lower as election results are tallied. Be aware of LPS (loss-per-share) earnings, which focus share pricing revealing negativity and depleting “runways” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12691
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened
- Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 7 up/ 28 down and 0 flat, stayed negative with 5 up/ 29 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 4/30 and 1 flat.
Pre-open Indications: 6 Hit < Avrobio (AVRO -$0.001), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.51), Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG -$0.01), bluebird bio (BLUE -$1.15), Prime Therapeutics (PRME -$0.04), Vericel (VCEL -$5.40)> 4 Miss < Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.81), uniQure NV (QURE -$0.70), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.23), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.71)>
- Wednesday - Sector volume was LOW with 1 of the 4-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 10 of 30-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Wednesday, the IBB was down -1% and the XBI was down -3.33%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Wednesday was up +0.51 points or +2% at 26.05
Jumping with share pricing momentum (4 of 4):
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.81 after Tuesday’s +$0.64 and Monday’s +$0.06),
- AxoGen (AXGN +$0.65 after Tuesday’s +$1.38),
- Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.07),
- Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.06),
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB)
Closing down (10 of 30):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$6.82 after Tuesday’s -$0.17 and Monday’s -$3.41),
- Vericel (VCEL -$5.40 after Tuesday’s -$1.01 and Monday’s -$0.90),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$3.05 after Tuesday’s +$1.17 and Monday’s +$0.79),
- CRISP Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.80 after Tuesday’s +$1.03 and Monday’s -$1.48),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.71),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.23 after Tuesday’s +$1.00 and Monday’s -$2.41),
- bluebird bio (BLUE -$1.15 after Tuesday’s +$0.56 and Monday’s +$0.68),
- Ultragenyx (RARE -$1.02 after Tuesday’s -$0.33),
- Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.93),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$1.17 after Monday’s -$9.54),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.87 after Tuesday’s +$0.48 and Monday’s -$4.89),
Q4 – November
- Wednesday closed negative with 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: Algorithms are BACK …driving the sector.
The final outcome of the midterm results may not be known for days or weeks, but investment strategists aren’t expecting a big move in markets or in the … sector.
Investors will turn their attention to Thursday’s inflation report.
I try to keep it simple … and short!
I keep repeating a “mantra” for effect, “Kenny Storch at BTIG, states there are 226 public biotech companies trading below cash currently. With 1 out of 5 in the Nasdaq Biotech Index trading below cash.” <I have also been stating the same theme!>
Reiterating from the a.m. post: “Is it a sign of the times for a few gene therapy companies to end-up like RUBY (Rubius Therapeutics – seeking “strategic alternatives”, AGTC – running out of money – getting acquired by shell, AVRO and VSTM with delisting hanging over their head like a sword of Damocles (?) or BEAM (Beam Therapeutics (dropping trial) or even Verve Therapeutics (VERV) getting IND halted by FDA.”
WHO or WHICH are NEXT …?
CEO salaries, spending the G&A are totally OUT-OF-WHACK; these are companies are in the development stage and will be for years without products in most cases not like the tech companies, whose CEOs and management teams think they should be compared to for bi-weekly cash and “beanies”!
We will continue seeing what November brings – Q3 earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season, an election and a whole lot of economic indicators.
Q4 is HERE and we are back into Q3 earnings season which could be a minefield:
· Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) on Monday, 11/14
If you have gains, you might want to lock-in profit if any … before earnings season begins!
DISPOSE Avrobio (AVRO) who experiences news (completion of dosing) as the stock drops following a de-listing notice while the management DID NOTHING to AVOID this dilemma while president, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?
· AVRO closed barely DOWN -$0.0154 after Tuesday’s +$0.0061 to $0.65, Monday’s +$0.0079 and Friday’s -$0.02 to $0.65 which STILL does NOT get close to the $1.00 to continue its Nasdaq listing after a delisting notice.
· AVRO’s 52nd session of under $1.00,
· Will AVRO have to “commission" a stock reverse to address delisting?
· Or, will they “pull” an AGTC and get acquired by a shell?
Isn’t this Verastem Oncology’s (VSTM closed down -$0.0251 to $0.37 after Tuesday’s +$0.0107 to $0.409 after Monday’s +$0.0010 to $0.39 after Friday’s -$0.0088); its 34th session of being UNDER $1.00 heading for de-listing under Nasdaq.
As I continually question, “The real question that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash?
I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.