November 10, 2022 4:37pm
Markets look past midterms conundrum; but, I'd be SELLING some highs early Friday
Indication Results: 4 Hits and 1 Miss
It’s an honor to be considered the “canary in the (sector) coal mine”! It’s more than opinion, the facts and truth need to be recognized!
Why do I keep writing this blog/newsletter; to inform investors, what others won’t say or write
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed UP +1,198.27 points (+3.69%), the S&P closed UP +207.31 points (5.53%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +760.97 points (+7.35 %)
We need to understand the macro to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
U.S. stocks jumped, the dollar slid and Treasury yields dropped on Thursday as cooler-than-expected inflation data suggested the Federal Reserve's barrage of interest rate hikes are beginning to have their intended effect. <Reuters>
Economic Data Docket: The consumer price index, rose just 0.4% for the month and 7.7% from a year ago. That was its lowest annual increase since January. Economists were expecting increases of 0.6% and 7.9%. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called core CPI increased 0.3% for the month and 6.3% on an annual basis, also less than expected. <from this a.m. post>
Mortgage rates fell sharply Thursday after a government report showed that inflation had cooled in October. The average rate on the 30-year fixed plunged 60 basis points from 7.22% to 6.62%, according to Mortgage News Daily. The rate, however, is still more than double what it was at the start of this year.
Avrobio (AVRO) files S-3 (Registration Statement) for offering with draft prospectus by Cowen … https://investors.avrobio.com/node/9116/html
· A SCREW-JOB for early and present investors ...
RegMed Investors (RMi) research note: BrainStorm Cell Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: BCLI) Shut-down by FDA on New Biologics License Application (BLA) for the ALS treatment with NurOwn … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12694
Thursday’s … RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “CPI, up +0.4% versus +0.6% estimate. Reaction and response, a volatile yet mobile sector is better for investors.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12693
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened
- Thursday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 28 up/ 7 down and 0 flat, stayed positive with 31 up/ 4 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 31/4 and 0 flat.
Pre-open Indications: 4 Hit < Avrobio (AVRO $0.00), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$2.86), Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$3.67), Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG -$0.58)> 1 Miss < uniQure NV (QURE +$1.99)>
- Thursday - Sector volume was HIGHER with 21 of the 31-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 1 of 4-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Thursday, the IBB was up +3.51% and the XBI was up +7.67%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Thursday was down -2.82 points or -10.81% at 23.27
Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 31):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$14.51 after Wednesday’s -$6.82, Tuesday’s -$0.17 and Monday’s -$3.41)
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$7.40 after Wednesday’s -$3.05, Tuesday’s +$1.17 and Monday’s +$0.79),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$6.28 after Wednesday’s -$0.87, Tuesday’s +$0.48 and Monday’s -$4.89),
- CRISP Therapeutics (CRSP +$5.76 after Wednesday’s -$1.80, Tuesday’s +$1.03 and Monday’s -$1.48),
- Vericel (VCEL +$4.76 after Wednesday’s -$5.40 after Tuesday’s -$1.01 and Monday’s -$0.90),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$4.45 after Wednesday’s -$1.23, Tuesday’s +$1.00 and Monday’s -$2.41),
- Ultragenyx (RARE +$3.86 after Tuesday’s -$0.33),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$3.67 after Monday’s -$9.54),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$2.86),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$2.41 after Tuesday’s +$0.64 and Monday’s +$0.06),
Closing down (4 of 4):
- Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$1.22),
- Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG -$0.58),
- Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.11),
- Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.01 after Wednesday’s +$0.06),
Q4 – November
Thursday closed positive with 31 incliner, 4 decliners and 0 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: the wind blows where it will as algorithms are BACK …driving the sector … today up.
I try to keep it simple … and short!
I keep repeating a “mantra” for effect, “Kenny Storch at BTIG, states there are 226 public biotech companies trading below cash currently. With 1 out of 5 in the Nasdaq Biotech Index trading below cash.” <I have also been stating the same theme!>
Reiterating from the a.m. post: “Is it a sign of the times for a few gene therapy companies to end-up like RUBY (Rubius Therapeutics – seeking “strategic alternatives”, AGTC – running out of money – getting acquired by shell, AVRO and VSTM with delisting hanging over their head like a sword of Damocles (?) or BEAM (Beam Therapeutics (dropping trial) or even Verve Therapeutics (VERV) getting IND halted by FDA.”
The story continues, “Faze Medicines, a neuroscience-focused startup that spun out of Third Rock Ventures in late 2020, is winding down. Clovis Oncology, a maker of cancer drugs, will likely file for bankruptcy protection due to dwindling sales of its sole product, mounting financial losses, and a crushing debt load.”
WHO or WHICH are NEXT …?
CEO salaries, spending the G&A are totally OUT-OF-WHACK; these are companies are in the development stage and will be for years without products in most cases not like the tech companies, whose CEOs and management teams think they should be compared to for bi-weekly cash and “beanies”!
Q4 is HERE and we are back into Q3 earnings season which could be a minefield:
· Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) on Monday, 11/14
· Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG), Tuesday, 11/14
After a dramtic rally to the sector's upside; if you have gains, you might want to lock-in profit if any … before earnings season begins!
DISPOSE ... of Avrobio (AVRO) who experiences news (completion of dosing) as the stock drops following a de-listing notice while the management DID NOTHING to AVOID this dilemma while president, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?
- AVRO closed up +$0.009 after Wednesday’s -$0.0154, Tuesday’s +$0.0061 to $0.65, Monday’s +$0.0079 and Friday’s -$0.02 to $0.65 which STILL does NOT get close to the $1.00 to continue its Nasdaq listing after a delisting notice.
- AVRO’s 53nd session of under $1.00,
- Why is AVRO “commissioning" a mixed offering to address delisting?
Isn’t this Verastem Oncology’s (VSTM closed up +$0.0286 to $0.40 after Wednesday’s -$0.0251, Tuesday’s +$0.0107, Monday’s +$0.0010 to $0.39 and last Friday’s -$0.0088);
Its 35th session of being UNDER $1.00 heading for de-listing under Nasdaq.
As I continually question, “The real question that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash?
I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.