November 11, 2022 4:48pm

The sector pumped the upside even as I feel it was overbought as earnings LPS (loss-per-share) season continues; I do NOT belief that some type of bottom is being put in the sector

Indication Results: 8 Hits and 6 Miss

It’s an honor to be considered the “canary in the (sector) coal mine”! It’s more than opinion, the facts and truth need to be recognized!

Why do I keep writing this blog/newsletter; to inform investors, what others won’t say or write

Week in review ...

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +33.91 points (+0.10%), the S&P closed UP +36.68 points (+0.93%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +209.18 points (+1.88%)

 

Henry’omics:

We need to understand the macro to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes closed positive on Friday as the week closed out with all of the indexes on pace for a winning week after a soft inflation reading raised hopes the Federal Reserve would get less aggressive with U.S. interest rate hikes.

The Dow is up 4% on a weekly basis, the Nasdaq is up 8% while the S&P 500 is up +5%.

Read and think, “Yesterday’s strength was notable, it was remarkable, it was historically significant, but it’s one day. It’s a single day. And we can’t read too much into that when we are still in a volatile period within a downtrend and challenging macro environment.” <U.S. Bank Wealth Management’s Bill Merz>

 

Avrobio (AVRO) files S-3 (Registration Statement) for offering with draft prospectus by Cowen … https://investors.avrobio.com/node/9116/html

·         A SCREW-JOB for early and present investors ...

RegMed Investors (RMi) research note: BrainStorm Cell Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: BCLI) Shut-down by FDA on New Biologics License Application (BLA) for the ALS treatment with NurOwn … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12694

 

Thursday’s … RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “post massive gains, what usually follows is pain. Market dynamics based on CPI inflation report, earnings results along with regulatory and pipeline updates (usually failures) continue to keep the cell and gene therapy sector in play” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12696

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened

  • Friday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 25 up/ 9 down and 1 flat, stayed positive with 26 up/ 8 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 29/5 and 1 flat.
  • Thursday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 28 up/ 7 down and 0 flat, stayed positive with 31 up/ 4 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 31/4 and 0 flat.
  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 7 up/ 28 down and 0 flat, stayed negative with 5 up/ 29 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 4/31 and 0 flat.
  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 16 up/ 17 down and 3 flats, flipped positive with 21 up/ 13 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 22/12 and 1 flat.
  • Monday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 13 up/ 21 down and 1 flat, stayed with 12 up/ 23 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 10/24 and 1 flat.

 

Pre-open Indications: 8 Hit <Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG $0.00), Sell into Strength: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$5.66), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$2.20), BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.37), Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.99), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$1.03), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$2.22), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.89)> 6 Miss <Avrobio (AVRO +$0.07), Vericel (VCEL +$1.39), Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.11), Mesoblast (MESO +$0.14), bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.43), Prime Therapeutics (PRME +$0.55)>

 

Key Metrics:

  • Friday - Sector volume was HIGHER with 16 of the 29-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 5 of 5-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
  • Thursday - Sector volume was HIGHER with 21 of the 31-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 1 of 4-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
  • Wednesday - Sector volume was LOW with 1 of the 4-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 10 of 31-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
  • Tuesday - Sector volume was LOW with 12 of the 22-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 5 of 12-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
  • Monday - Sector volume was LOW with 2 of the 10-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 5 of 24-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was up +0.50% and the XBI was up +1.97%
  • Thursday, the IBB was up +3.51% and the XBI was up +7.67%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was down -1% and the XBI was down -3.33%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.98% and the XBI was up +0.94%
  • Monday, the IBB was up +0.58% and the XBI was down -1.05%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -0.97 points or -4.08% at 22.57
  • Thursday was down -2.82 points or -10.81% at 23.27
  • Wednesday was up +0.51 points or +2% at 26.05
  • Tuesday was up +1.08 points or +4.44% at 25.33
  • Monday was down -0.12 points or -0.49% at 24.43

 

Jumping with share pricing momentum (10 of 29):

  • CRISP Therapeutics (CRSP +$5.66 after Thursday’s +$5.76, Wednesday’s -$1.80, Tuesday’s +$1.03 and Monday’s -$1.48),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$6.77 after Thursday’s +$6.28, Wednesday’s -$0.87, Tuesday’s +$0.48 and Monday’s -$4.89),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$3.92 after Thursday’s +$14.51, Wednesday’s -$6.82, Tuesday’s -$0.17 and Monday’s -$3.41),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$3.62 after Thursday’s +$3.67),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$2.20 after Thursday’s +$4.45, Wednesday’s -$1.23, Tuesday’s +$1.00 and Monday’s -$2.41),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$1.99),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$1.58),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$1.39 after Thursday’s +$4.76, Wednesday’s -$5.40 after Tuesday’s -$1.01 and Monday’s -$0.90),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.81),
  • Prime herapeutics (PRME +$0.55 after Thursday’s +$1.55 after Wednesday’s -$0.04)

Closing down (5 of 5):

  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$2.22 after Thursday’s +$2.41),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$1.57 after Thursday’s +$3.86),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.75),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.29),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$1.22),

Flat (1)

  • Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG),

 

Q4 – November

  • Friday closed positive with 29 incliner, 5 decliners and 1 flat
  • Thursday closed positive with 31 incliner, 4 decliners and 0 flat
  • Wednesday closed negative with 4 incliner, 31 decliners and 0 flat
  • Tuesday closed positive with 22 incliner, 12 decliners and 1 flat
  • Monday closed negative with 10 incliner, 24 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: the wind blows where it will as algorithms are BACK …driving the sector …  up again.

I try to keep it simple … and short!

I keep repeating a “mantra” for effect, “Kenny Storch at BTIG, states there are 226 public biotech companies trading below cash currently. With 1 out of 5 in the Nasdaq Biotech Index trading below cash.” <I have also been stating the same theme!>

Reiterating from the a.m. post: “Is it a sign of the times for a few gene therapy companies to end-up like RUBY (Rubius Therapeutics – seeking “strategic alternatives”, AGTC – running out of money – getting acquired by shell, AVRO and VSTM with delisting hanging over their head like a sword of Damocles (?) or BEAM (Beam Therapeutics (dropping trial) or even Verve Therapeutics (VERV) getting IND halted by FDA.”

The story continues, “Faze Medicines, a neuroscience-focused startup that spun out of Third Rock Ventures in late 2020, is winding down. Clovis Oncology, a maker of cancer drugs, will likely file for bankruptcy protection due to dwindling sales of its sole product, mounting financial losses, and a crushing debt load.”

WHO or WHICH are NEXT …?

CEO salaries, spending the G&A are totally OUT-OF-WHACK; these are companies are in the development stage and will be for years without products in most cases not like the tech companies, whose CEOs and management teams think they should be compared to for bi-weekly cash and “beanies”!

 

Q4 is HERE and we are back into Q3 earnings season which could be a minefield:

·         Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) on Monday, 11/14

·         Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG), Tuesday, 11/15

 

If you have gains, you might want to lock-in profit if any … before earnings season begins!

DISPOSE Avrobio (AVRO) who experiences news (completion of dosing) as the stock drops following a de-listing notice while the management DID NOTHING to AVOID this dilemma while president, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?

·         AVRO closed up +$0.066 after Thursday’s +$0.009 after Wednesday’s -$0.0154, Tuesday’s +$0.0061 to $0.65, Monday’s +$0.0079 and Friday’s -$0.02 to $0.65 which STILL does NOT get close to the $1.00 to continue its Nasdaq listing after a delisting notice.

·         AVRO’s 54th session of under $1.00,

·         Will AVRO have to “commission" a stock reverse to address delisting?

·         Or, will they “pull” an AGTC and get acquired by a shell?

Isn’t this Verastem Oncology’s (VSTM closed up +$0.01 after Thursday’s +$0.0286 to $0.40 after Wednesday’s -$0.0251, Tuesday’s +$0.0107, Monday’s +$0.0010 to $0.39 and last Friday’s -$0.0088);

Isn’t it VSTM’s 36th session of being UNDER $1.00 heading for de-listing under Nasdaq.

As I continually question, “The real question that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.