November 16, 2022 4:39pm
The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering
Indication Results: 4 Hits and 4 Miss
It’s an honor to be considered the “canary in the (sector) coal mine”! It’s more than opinion, the facts and truth need to be recognized!
Why do I keep writing this blog/newsletter; to inform investors, what others won’t say or write
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed DOWN -36.32 points (-0.11%), the S&P closed DOWN -32.79 points (-0.82%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -174.75 points (-1.54%)
The Dow closed up, the S&P and Nasdaq closed down
The producer price index report, which measures wholesale prices, came in below expectations, which alleviated some of investors’ concerns around inflation.
An interesting quote, “In the short term, the market is very extended and overdue to pull back and digest the recent rally.” <Adam Sarhan, CEO of 50 Park Investments>
Economic Data Docket: “Retail spending rose slightly more than expected in October as consumer spending held up despite higher prices. Advance sales for the month climbed 1.3%, just above the 1.2% estimate” <Commerce Department>
- Also, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, which measures the pulse of the single-family housing market, fell for the eleventh consecutive month to 33, marking the worst stretch for the housing market since the survey launched in 1985.
Wednesday’s … RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “whatever floats your boat or fills your portfolio, short-term moves could defend your positions. Market dynamics are still turned by inflation reporting, October retail sales” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12703
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened
- Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 8 up/ 26 down and 1 flat, stayed negative with 6 up/ 28 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 5/29 and 1 flat.
Pre-open Indications: 4 Hit < Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG $0.00), Avrobio (AVRO -$0.0079), BioLife Solutions (BLF -$2.14), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.68), > 4 Miss < Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$2.65), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.39), uniQure NV (QURE -$0.02), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.06)>
- Wednesday - Sector volume was HIGH with 3 of the 5-upside having higher than the 3-month average volume with LOW volume of 5 of 29-downside having higher than the 3-month average volume
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Wednesday, the IBB was down – 0.67% and the XBI was down -2.81%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Wednesday was down -0.40 points or -1.63% at 24.14
Jumping with share pricing momentum (5 of 5):
- Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.27 after Tuesday’s+$0.17 and Monday’s +$0.10),
- Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.08 after Tuesday’s -$0.36 and Monday’s +$0.24),
- Agenus (AGEN +$0.08 after Tuesday’s +$0.24 and Monday’s +$0.42),
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.02),
- Avrobio (AVRO +$0.0016),
Closing down (10 of 29):
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$2.38 after Tuesday’s -$0.38 and Monday’s -$1.65),
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.30 after Tuesday’s +$0.81 and Monday -$2.89),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.25 after Tuesday’s +$1.23),
- Prime Therapeutics (PRME -$1.98 after Tuesday’s +$0.59 and Monday’s -$1.51)
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$1.92 after Tuesday’s +$1.38 and Monday’s -$1.85),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.67),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.39 after Tuesday’s -$0.56 and Monday’s -$1.19),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$1.27 after Tuesday’s -$0.29 and Monday’s -$0.65),
- Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.92 after Tuesday’s -$0.17),
- Vericel (VCEL -$0.86 after Tuesday’s +$0.19 and Monday’s -$0.71),
- Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG $0.00 after Tuesday’s -$0.60 after Monday’s +$0.71),
Q4 – November
- Wednesday closed negative with 5 incliner, 29 decliners and 1 flat
- Tuesday closed positive with 21 incliner, 14 decliners and 0 flat
- Monday closed negative with 13 incliner, 21 decliners and 1 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
Reiterating, “It is difficult to predict where the cell and gene therapy sector is headed in the short run.”
In “our’ universe of cell and gene therapy, we are betting on the hope for a cure or a treatment but, we are dependent on the management team to represent our hopes and aspirations.
I would also note the VIX (fear gauge) is “flighty” in volatility, as volume does NOT fit into this paradigm implying the potential for some lessening sessions.
Key word, uncertainty …
Today resounds with sentiment issues and an extremely risk adverse investor psychology
I keep repeating a “mantra” for effect, “Kenny Storch at BTIG, states there are 226 public biotech companies trading below cash currently. With 1 out of 5 in the Nasdaq Biotech Index trading below cash.” <I have also been stating the same theme!>
CEO salaries, spending the G&A are totally OUT-OF-WHACK; these are companies are in the development stage and will be for years without products in most cases not like the tech companies, whose CEOs and management teams think they should be compared to for bi-weekly cash and “beanies”!
If you have gains, you might want to lock-in profit if any …!
Avrobio (AVRO) lives a de-listing notice while the management DID NOTHING to AVOID this dilemma while president, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?
· AVRO closed barely up +$0.0016 after Tuesday’s -$0.03 after Monday’s -$0.03 which STILL does NOT get close to the $1.00 to continue its Nasdaq listing after a delisting notice.
· AVRO’s 57th session of under $1.00,
· Will AVRO have to “commission" an offering to relieve the delisting?
Avrobio (AVRO) files S-3 (Registration Statement) for offering with draft prospectus by Cowen … https://investors.avrobio.com/node/9116/html
• A SCREW-JOB for early and present investors ...
Isn’t this Verastem Oncology’s (VSTM closed down -$0.0186 after Tuesday’s +$0.0072 to $0.40 after Monday’s -$0.02 after Friday’s +$0.01 …
Isn’t it VSTM’s 39th session of being UNDER $1.00 heading for de-listing under Nasdaq.
As I continually question, “The real question that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash? I stick to my view of anticipating the risks – as my careers focus has been “warning analysis”.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.