December 12, 2022 8:18am
Think, “uncle” algorithm ahead of CPI (consumer price index) inflation report on Tuesday and Fed rate hike “directions” on Wednesday about further tightening in early 2023
Indications: 4 Positive Indications and 2 Negative Indications
News: Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.29 pre-open) reported new 12-month clinical data from cohort 1 in the ongoing ANTLER P1 trial, which show long-term durability following a single infusion of CB-010 at the initial dose level 1 (40x106 CAR-T cells). Cohort 1 results show:
A daily report may say little or a lot and its final judgement may be inconclusive; yet it serves as insurance that all indications are being examined, evaluated and reported.
I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others won’t say or write about - truth!
8:30 a.m. edition
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session.
Dow futures are UP +0.20% or (+67 points), S&P futures are UP +0.26% or (+10 point) and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.23% or (+28 points) early in the pre-open – so far,
U.S. stock futures were fractionally higher early Monday,
European markets retreated slightly as investors waited for U.S. Fed meeting report,
Asia-Pacific markets declined as their region also waits.
Henry’omics:
We need to understand the macro to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
This coming week investors get a one-two shot of big economic news as worries persisted over continued rate hikes.
Indexes retreated last week with the cell and gene therapy sector continued its trend of popping to new lows; a challenging environment for buying sector stocks.
The Dow closed DOWN -305.02 points (-0.90%), the S&P close DOWN -29.13 points (-0.73%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -77.39 points (-0.70%)
On a weekly basis, the Dow fell -2.77% to post its worst week since September; he S&P tumbled -3.37%, while the Nasdaq dropped -3.99%.
Economic Data Docket: Early Tuesday, the Labor Department will release the November consumer price index. Overall and core CPI inflation rates should cool over the next several months, if only because comparisons are getting tougher. But services prices have been stubbornly strong. The Fed wants to see more-substantial declines on services inflation, as well as wage gains, before halting rate hikes. On Wednesday, at 2 p.m. ET, the Fed is expected to raise its fed funds rate by 50 basis points, to 4.25%-4.5%, ending a string of four 75-basis-point hikes.
Friday’s (12/9) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “the bleed keeps spraying. The cell and gene therapy sector needs to achieve an equilibrium in sentiment whether positive or negative to process actual investor “participation” - New Year post tax selling!” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12738
Ebb and flow:
Q4 – December – 5 negative and 2 positive closes
· November -1 holiday, 14 negative and 8 positive closes
· October -1 neutral, 11 positive and 9 negative closes
Q3/22 –
· September – 1 holiday, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
· August – 1 neutral, 11 positive and 11 negative closes
· July - 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: INDICATIONS
Attention remains laser-focused on week’s busy economic calendar; there’s still a bit of hesitation in front of inflation data to really see the reality of the markets and cell and gene therapy sector ability or capacity to move upward.
Although … positive indications exist:
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) closed down -$2.57 to $42.12 with a positive +$0.88 or +2.09% pre-open indication,
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed down -$0.39 to $19.41 with a positive +$0.59 or +3.04% pre-open indication,
- Caribou Biosciences (CRBU) closed down -$0.28 to $8.97 with a positive +$0.29 or +3.23% pre-open indication,
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed down -$1.51 to $48.99 with a positive +$0.95 or +1.94% pre-open indication,
While negative indications were evident:
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV) closed down -$0.46 to $21.65 with a negative -$0.66 or -3.05% pre-open indication,
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) closed down -$0.50 to $37.50 with a negative -$1.16 or -3.09% pre-open indication,
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple and short!
The market and sector face a big technical test with inflation and Fed reporting playing a major role in how the week plays out.
“Sideways markets are among the most dangerous for investors, especially when there is volatility up and down. There's just enough strength on the upside to lure buyers in, but then the market swings lower for a time. That forces investors to either cut losses when they're small — with a good chance that stocks will rebound — or risk a much-bigger decline.” <IBD>
The current choppy market rally has an added hurdle. Most of the advance has come on a handful of one-day sessions, so it's hard to have even mini-uptrends to build gains in new positions.
Until December 31, investors may want to be cautious about making new buys.
I’d be calculating selling for tax purposes amid the ongoing cell and gene therapy sector volatility, “our” universe’s trend remains " in a constant correction." That means that … lately we are investors are safer on the sidelines.
· Friday ended with a negative close of 2/31 and 2 flat.
· Thursday ended with a positive close of 23/11 and 1 flat,
· Wednesday ended with a negative close of 16/19 and 0 flat,
· Tuesday ended with a negative close of 5/30 and 0 flat,
· Monday ended with a negative close of 3/32 and 0 flat.
Yet, it’s setting-up for those to bottom fish for December exits and new Year BUYS although it will be tough to get through the end-of-month sessions
Insight is about understanding perception and also about putting into context what is relevant to expectation fulfillment
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication.
