December 13, 2022 4:36pm

I knew a Tuesday close would be slightly transitory once the sector exhaled

News: Cellectis S.A. (CLLS +$0.11) presented P1/2a BALLI-01 clinical trial (evaluating UCART22) an open-label dose-escalation trial evaluating the safety and clinical activity of UCART22 given at escalating dose levels after lymphodepletion (LD) with either fludarabine and cyclophosphamide (FC) or FC with alemtuzumab (FCA) in patients with relapsed or refractory acute lymphoblastic leukemia (r/r ALL) and its Ph1 AMELI-01 is a P1 open-label dose-escalation trial evaluating the safety, tolerability, expansion and preliminary activity of UCART123 given at escalating dose levels after lymphodepletion (LD) with either fludarabine and cyclophosphamide (FC) or FC with alemtuzumab (FCA) in patients with relapsed or refractory acute myeloid leukemia (r/r AML). Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.17) presented pre-clinical data of several novel strategies designed to enable administration of off-the-shelf cell-based cancer immunotherapies without conditioning chemotherapy. <each at the American Society of Hematology (ASH)>

Pre-open Indications: 3 Hit and 1Miss

Why do I keep writing this blog/newsletter; to inform investors, what others won’t say or write

 


If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +1-03.64 points (+0.30%), the S&P closed UP +29.20 points (+0.73%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +113.08 points (+1.01%)

 

Henry’omics:

We need to understand the macro to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes were positive on Tuesday after a smaller-than-forecast climb in consumer prices buoyed optimism the Fed could soon dial back its aggressive path of interest rate hikes aimed at taming inflation.

  • Starting the session: (Dow futures were UP +2.27% or (+753 points), S&P futures were UP +2.47% or (+99 point) and NASDAQ futures were UP +2.99% or (+353 points) early in the pre-open)

We have to wait until we hear what the FOMC says tomorrow.

Great sign/news for the sector, “Nimbus Therapeutics today announced that Takeda will acquire the allosteric TYK2 inhibitor”

  • Nimbus Therapeutics, LLC a clinical-stage company that designs and develops breakthrough medicines through its powerful computational drug discovery engine, today announced that it has signed a definitive agreement under which Takeda (TSE:4502/NYSE: TAK) will acquire Nimbus Lakshmi, Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Nimbus Therapeutics, and its tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2) inhibitor NDI-034858. NDI-034858 is an oral, selective allosteric TYK2 inhibitor being evaluated for the treatment of multiple autoimmune diseases following successful recent P 2b results in psoriasis. <Funded by SV Health Investors>
  • The transaction is expected to be finalized in the 1H/2023. Closing of the transaction is contingent on completion of review under antitrust laws, including the Hart-Scott-Rodino (HSR) Antitrust Improvements Act of 1976.

Economic Data Docket: consumer price index showed an increase of just 0.1% from the previous month, and a gain of 7.1% from a year ago, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. Economists surveyed had been expecting a 0.3% monthly increase and a 7.3% 12-month increase.

  • Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core CPI rose 0.2% on the month and 6% on an annual basis, compared to respective estimates of 0.3% and 6.1%.

 

Tuesday’s … RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “waiting to exhale – ha. CPI is up +0.01% after being expected to increase 0.3% in November, with a year-over-year to -7.1%” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12741   

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – quite a difference …

  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 21 up/ 13 down and 1 flat, stayed positive with 20 up/ 14 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 26/8 and 1 flat.

 

Pre-open indication results: 3 Hit < Precigen (PGRN +$0.035), Fate Therapeutics (FATE $0.00)> and 2 MISSAvrobio (AVRO +$0.01),Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.31)>

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Tuesday, the IBB was up +1.52% and the XBI was up +1.62%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was down -2.47 points or -9.88% at 23.53

 

Closing Down (8 of 8):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.36 after Monday’s +$2.07),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.32 after Monday’s +$1.12),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.21),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.13 after Monday’s +$0.76),
  • Verastem (VSTM -$0.0294),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.0126),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.01 after Monday’s +$2.10),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.01),

Closing Up (10 of 26):

  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$2.15 after Monday’s +$2.13),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.44 after Monday’s +$5.18),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.12 after Monday’s +$4.53),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.99),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.82 after Monday’s +$0.97),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.80 after Monday’s +$1.54),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.73 after Monday’s +$1.93),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.48),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.47 after Monday’s +$0.69),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.32 after Monday’s -$0.03),

Flat (1):

  • Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG)

 

Q4 – December

  • Tuesday closed positive with 26 incliner, 8 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

Reiterating, there are clear winners today and fewer losers; the following paragraphs might be construed to be contrarian; yet, be prepared by what could or will happen as dictated by past weeks of market and sector “happenings” – i.e., downdrafts!

Again, enjoy this rally, it could be an “The 'eye(s) of the tiger' moment, which refers to what the tiger's (algorithms) prey last sees prior to being killed. It's a reference to impending downfall of sector equities or the prey.

Be prepared … just 13 trading days remain in 2022.

I believe the sector will become even more focused on CEOs and management teams lining their own pockets with OUTSIZED G&A “obligations” as share pricings hug bottoms.

To alleviate investor concern, communication MUST will be driven by a CONSTANT out-reach to individual investors; even to those who have been the worst detractors – I did it once upon a time and the “share price droning” slowed and many holders became educated and jumped on the band wagon - TRUE story after some dark days of valuation.

Just 14 trading days remain in 2022.

Tomorrow’s focus is FEAR of more Fed rate hikes; the probability the Fed will raise rates by 0.5% in its meeting this week.

Yet again, many stocks have experienced upward progression - today and I believe, “uncle” algorithm hoped on the oversold to “make a buck or two” into the next downside reversion.

Avrobio (AVRO closed up on Tuesday +$0.01 after Monday’s flat $0.00 (says a lot of addressing the delisting issue) having filed a S-3 for $250 million common stock, preferred stock, debt securities, warrants and unit offering within draft prospectus by Cowen as stock sinks while delisting continues? Just another “screw-job” of investors! < Read, SELL and Weep - see hyperlink below> Avrobio (AVRO) files S-3 (Registration Statement) for offering with draft prospectus by Cowen … https://investors.avrobio.com/node/9116/html

·         Also, RA Capital has sold its position in the company – a sign of dissatisfaction!

·         While, President, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?

As I continually question, “The real question that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.