December 15, 2022 4:46pm

Where and what are the coming sector catalysts (?), coming off two (2) losing sessions; disappointing retail sales report suggest inflation is taking a toll on investors

Pre-open Indications: 3 Hit and 3 Miss

My News: Avrobio (AVRO) keeps diving (-$0.0028 to $0.79 with 160,528 shares traded) as de-listing continues, hoping for a reverse split followed by a $250 million Cowen offering to “solve” its issues? Shareholders continue to lose and CEO Mackay needs to go!

Why do I keep writing this blog/newsletter; to inform investors, what others won’t say or write

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed DOWN -764.13 points (-2.25%), the S&P closed DOWN -99.57 points (-2.49%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -360.36 points (-3.23%)

 

Henry’omics:

We need to understand the macro to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes fell sharply Thursday after new data showed retail sales fell more than expected in November, raising fears that the Fed’s interest rate hikes could be tipping the economy into a recession.

The Dow fell in its worst day since September as hopes for a year-end rally diminished; the S&P 500 decline for December is -4.5% while the Nasdaq strained its 2022 losses to more than 31%.

An appropriate quote, “Stocks could be in for further volatility heading into the final stretch of 2022 with the December Fed meeting, and a raft of economic reports, in the rearview mirror. The last two weeks of the year will be interesting as the market might be prone to wider swings given the absence of important economic data releases and the fact that many traders will be on holiday.” <Brian Price, head of investment management at Commonwealth Financial Network>

Economic Data Docket: Retail and food services sales fell 0.6% in November after rising 1.3% in the prior month, according to the Commerce Department. That was below the estimates of a 0.3% decline. Excluding autos, retail sales dipped 0.2%, below estimates for a 0.2% gain in spending.

·         Jobless claims fell again to 211,000 for the week ending Dec. 10, down 20,000 from the previous week according to the Labor Department.

·         Continuing claims for the week ending Dec. 3 were 1,671,000, about the same as last week’s report.

·         The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index rose 6 points but remained negative at -13.8, signaling contraction. It’s the fourth consecutive negative reading of the index, and the sixth in seven months.

Another Sign of the Times: Sio Gene Therapies after more than half a year of looking for a buyer, it has failed to find one and will sell off its remaining assets and close down. The company, formerly known as Axovant, started as one of the darlings of Vivek Ramaswamy’s Roivant empire, raising $315 million in a 2015 IPO, and a market value at one point of around $2 billion.

·         After the 2018 failure of its lead drug for Alzheimer’s disease, including a botched statistical analysis, it pivoted to Parkinson’s — where it faced manufacturing issues — and eventually to gene therapy. It took on the name Sio in 2020, saying at the time, “we’re not a ‘vant.”

·         Early this year, the company’s programs had run into trouble, and it announced in April that it was terminating a licensing arrangement for its GM1 and GM2 gene therapy programs, announced job cuts, and hired the bank SVB Securities to help it look for a buyer or some other escape. <Endpoint News>

 

Thursday’s … RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “the cell and gene therapy sector suffered from indigestion post Jerome’s rate gospel. And it "ain’t" over, more economic news while monetary policy is going to handicap “our” universe” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12745

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – quite a difference

  • Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 4 up/ 29 down and 2 flats, stayed negative with 9 up/ 25 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 6/28 and 0 flat.

 

Pre-open indication results: 3 Hit < Avrobio (AVRO -$0.0028), Vericel (VCEL -$1.74), uniQure NV (QURE -$0.44)> and 3 MISS < BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.63), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$2.27), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.04)>

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB was down -1.82% and the XBI was down -2.85%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was up +1.65 points or +7.81% at 22.79

 

Closing Down (10 of 28):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$4.54 after Wednesday’s -$3.07, Tuesday’s +$1.12 and Monday’s +$4.53),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$3.09 after Wednesday’s +$0.16, Tuesday’s -$0.32 and Monday’s +$1.12),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.69 after Wednesday’s -$0.51, Tuesday’s -$0.36 and Monday’s +$2.07),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$2.57 after Wednesday’s -$0.86, Tuesday’s +$1.44 and Monday’s +$5.18),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$2.27 after Wednesday’s -$1.50, Tuesday’s -$0.01 and Monday’s +$2.10),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$1.74 after Wednesday’s +$1.22 and Tuesday’s +$0.99),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$1.16 after Wednesday’s -$1.00),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.98 after Wednesday’s -$0.46, Tuesday’s +$0.73 and Monday’s +$1.93),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.74 after Wednesday’s +$0.22, Tuesday’s +$0.82 and Monday’s +$0.97),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.63 after Wednesday’s -$0.52),

Flat (1):

  • Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG)

Closing Up (6 of 6):

  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.22 after Wednesday’s +$0.16),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.11 after Wednesday’s +$0.53, Tuesday’s +$2.15 and Monday’s +$2.13),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.05),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$01 after Wednesday’s +$0.15 after Tuesday’s -$0.21),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.01 after Wednesday’s +$0.04),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.0001)

 

Q4 – December

  • Thursday closed negative with 6 incliner, 28 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

Sentiment sloped … with the sector bottoming, “The Nasdaq was down nearly 3% while the small-cap Russell 2000 saw a 2.5% fall in late trading. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is slicing below its 50-day moving average, another bad sign.

the following paragraphs … might be construed to be contrarian … AS I STATED be prepared for downdrafts!” <IBD>

Be prepared … just 12 trading days remain in 2022.

I believe the sector will become even more focused on CEOs and management teams lining their own pockets with OUTSIZED G&A “obligations” as share pricings hug bottoms.

To alleviate investor concern, communication MUST will be driven by a CONSTANT out-reach to individual investors; even to those who have been the worst detractors – I did it once upon a time and the “share price droning” slowed and many holders became educated and jumped on the band wagon - TRUE story after some dark days of valuation.

Yet again, many stocks have experienced downside progression - today as I believe, “uncle” algorithms hopped on the overbought to “make a buck or two” into a retreat from yesterday’s high.

Avrobio (AVRO closed down again -$0.0028 after Wednesday’s -$0.0049, Tuesday’s +$0.01 and Monday’s flat $0.00 (says a lot of addressing the delisting issue) having filed a S-3 for $250 million common stock, preferred stock, debt securities, warrants and unit offering within draft prospectus by Cowen as stock sinks while delisting continues? Just another “screw-job” of investors! < Read, SELL and Weep - see hyperlink below> Avrobio (AVRO) files S-3 (Registration Statement) for offering with draft prospectus by Cowen … https://investors.avrobio.com/node/9116/html

·         Also, RA Capital has sold its position in the company – a sign of dissatisfaction!

·         While, President, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?

As I continually question, “The real question that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.