December 23, 2022 4:41pm
Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah and be safe and healthy if traveling
Why do I keep writing this blog/newsletter; to educate and inform investors, what others won’t say or write
My guide to 'good news seems to be bad news' and 'bad news is good news. 'In normal times, no one really questions whether good news in the economy is actually good.
Amid the ongoing cell and gene therapy sector volatility, “our” universe’s trend remains " in a constant correction." That means that investors are safer on the sidelines as again … earnings are coming.
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed UP +176.44 points (+0.53%), the S&P closed UP +22.43 points (+0.59%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +21.74 points (+0.21%)
We need to understand the macro to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes oscillated with the Dow, S&P and the Nasdaq closing up at Friday’s close, ahead of the long Christmas holiday weekend, capping a week fraught with concerns over the Fed's restrictive monetary policy and related recession fears.
An appropriate quote, “The economic numbers announced today highlight the difficulty for investors today, where weak numbers bring recession fears and strong numbers bring Fed fear.” <Louis Navellier, founder and chief investment officer of growth investing firm Navellier & Associates>
In December so far, the S&P 500 has lost about 6%, while the Dow -4% and Nasdaq have lost more -8%.
Economic Data Docket: core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, came in slightly hotter (4.7%) than economists expected (4.6%) on a year-over-year basis, indicating that inflation is sticking despite the Fed’s efforts to fight it.
- The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose more than expected in December, coming in at 59.7. That’s above a Dow Jones estimate of 59.1 and up from 56.8 in November. Month over month, the index advanced 0.2%, matching expectations.
- The degree of bearishness about the short-term direction of the stock market in the latest weekly poll conducted by the American Association of Individual Investors climbed to 52.3%, a nine-week high, from 44.6% last week.
Friday’s … RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “awaiting the holiday and the Fed. Santa will deliver the gifts, the Fed tries to limit their quantity.” …https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12757
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – quite a difference …
- Friday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 4 up/ 29 down and 2 flats, stayed negative with 3 up/30 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 4/30 and 1 flat.
- Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 7 up/ 26 down and 2 flats, stayed negative with 7 up/26 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 15/19 and 1 flat.
- Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 32 up/ 3 down and 0 flat, stayed positive with 28 up/7 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 22/12 and 1 flat.
- Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 25 up/ 9 down and 1 flat, stayed positive with 23 up/11 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 25/7 and 3 flats.
- Monday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 3 up/ 30 down and 2 flats, stayed negative with 0 up/34 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 4/30 and 1 flat.
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Friday, the IBB was down -1.34% and the XBI was down -2.33%
- Thursday, the IBB was up +0.07% and the XBI was up +0.29%
- Wednesday, the IBB was up +1.25% and the XBI was up +2.19%
- Tuesday, the IBB was up +1.16% and the XBI was up +1.87%
- Monday, the IBB was down -1.83% and the XBI was down -2.05%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Friday was down -1 points or -4.55% at 20.97
- Thursday was up +1.75 points or +8.72% at 21.82
- Wednesday was down -1.39 points or -6.47% at 20.09
- Tuesday was down -0.94 points or -4.19% at 21.48
- Monday was down -0.30 points or -1.33% at 22.32
Closing Down (10 of 30):
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.99 after Thursday’s +$0.66 and Wednesday’s +$1.11),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.60 after Thursday’s -$1.82, Wednesday’s +$1.64, Tuesday’s +$1.49 and Monday’s -$2.44),
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.59 after Thursday’s -$1.27, Wednesday’s +$3.76, Tuesday’s +$3.48 and Monday’s -$2.85),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.55 after Thursday’s +$0.17, Wednesday’s +$0.87, Tuesday’s +$0.47 and Monday’s -$1.77
- Ultragenyx (RARE -$1.28 after Thursday’s +$0.69),
- Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.22),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.09 after Thursday’s -$0.14),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.89 after Thursday’s +$0.18, Wednesday’s +$0.41, Tuesday’s +$0.54, Monday’s -$1.30),
- Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.86 after Thursday’s +$1.80 and Wednesday’s +$0.42),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.65 after Thursday’s -$0.59, Wednesday’s -$0.38 and Tuesday’s -$0.12),
- Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG),
Closing Up (4 of 4):
- Prime Medicine (PRME +$1.00 after Thursday’s +$0.45 and Wednesday’s -$0.12)
- Compass Therapeutics (CRBU +$0.15 after Thursday’s +$0.12 and Wednesday’s +$0.35),
- Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.06 after Thursday’s -$0.20),
- Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.02),
Q4 – December
- Friday closed negative with 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 flat
- Thursday closed negative with 15 incliner, 19 decliners and 1 flat
- Wednesday closed positive with 22 incliner, 12 decliners and 1 flat
- Tuesday closed positive with 25 incliner, 7 decliners and 3 flats
- Monday closed negative with 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
“Uncle “algorithms swung to “take-down” Thursday slip (today even further) after Wednesday and Tuesday’s up side equities.
Be prepared … just 5 trading days remain in 2022.
The biggest issue for the New Year is the cloud of recession overhanging the economy, market volatility that affects and effects our universe of cell and gene therapy sector equities
Avrobio (AVRO closed down again -$0.0247 with 128,956 shares traded after Thursday’s -$0.0068 with 121,246 shares traded, Wednesday’s +$0.0001 with 607,023 shares traded, Tuesday’s +$0.0295 with 361,951 shares traded (says a lot of addressing the delisting issue) having filed a S-3 for $250 million common stock, preferred stock, debt securities, warrants and unit offering within draft prospectus by Cowen as stock sinks while delisting continues? Just another “screw-job” of investors! < Read, SELL and Weep - see hyperlink below> Avrobio (AVRO) files S-3 (Registration Statement) for offering with draft prospectus by Cowen … https://investors.avrobio.com/node/9116/html
· Also, RA Capital has sold its position in the company – a sign of dissatisfaction!
· While, President, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?
Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) closed $0.00 with 25 shares traded with news of a patent (going nowhere) after Thursday’s $0.00 with 50 shares traded <3-month average =1,928 shares> after Wednesday’s -$0.02 with 624 shares traded, Tuesday’s $0.00 with 34 shares traded, Monday’s $0.00 to $5.82 with 8,115 shares traded, Friday’s -$0.80 to $5.85 with 8,115 shares trade and last Thursday’s $0.00 with only 100 shares traded.
As I continually question, “The real question that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash?
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.