December 28, 2022 5:01pm
Try speculation and exploitation by electronic trading
Pre-open Indications: 2 hits and 3 Miss
News: Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG +$0.83) selected IQVIA, a clinical research services to the life sciences industry, as the contract research organization (CRO) to manage its first clinical trial – which will last 3-5 years. Hopefully, BSTG will pay them, not the series of non-payment to the past CRO that was … eventually fulfilled to file the past IND which is now 3.5 years old?
Why do I keep writing this blog/newsletter; to educate and inform investors, what others won’t say or write. Investors are still struggling for sector share pricing direction and wanted clarity of guidance in earnings that are to begin in earnest. That means trades that didn't move the market before are now creating more volatility.
Subscription is coming, it’s not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed DOWN -365.85 points (-1.10%), the S&P closed DOWN -46.03 points (-1.20%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -139.94 points (-1.35%)
We need to understand the macro to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes fell on Wednesday as traders looked to the end of a losing year and prepared for 2023.
An appropriate quote, “The market appears to be exhausted, understandably, no longer expecting a large technical rally and just hoping to get to Friday afternoon without any further meaningful losses.” <Louis Navellier, Navellier & Associates>
Economic Data Docket: pending home sales, which slipped 4.0% in November on a monthly basis, according to the National Association of Realtors. The drop came as high mortgage rates gave prospective buyers cold feet. Economists had expected a decline of 1.8%.
· Home sales are historically a good driver of economic activity as a new home sale supports many industries.
Wednesday’s … RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “a holiday shortened week with another coming to follow the New Year.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12761
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – quite a difference …
- Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 21 up/ 11 down and 3 flats, slipped negative with 7 up/ 24 down and 4 flats at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 14/21 and 0 flat.
- Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 4 up/ 29 down and 2 flats, stayed negative with 2 up/ 31 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 1/33 and 1 flat.
- Monday was a market holiday
Pre-open indications: 2 Hits <Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.65), Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.16)> 3 Miss: Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.35), Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.09), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.82)>
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
Wednesday, the IBB was down -0.68% and the XBI was up +0.37%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Wednesday was up +0.55 points or +2.54% at 22.20
Closing Down (10 of 21):
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.82 after Tuesday’s -$3.08 and Monday’s holiday),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.35 after Tuesday’s -$2.28 and Monday’s holiday),
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.69 after Tuesday’s -$5.59 and Monday’s holiday),
- Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.440,
- uniQure NV (QURE -$0.42 after Tuesday’s -$0.69),
- Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.41 after Tuesday’s -$0.76 and Monday’s holiday),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.34 after Tuesday’s -$0.81 and Monday’s holiday),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.21),
- bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.21),
- Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.17),
Closing Up (10 of 14):
- Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG +$0.83 after Tuesday’s $0.00),
- Vericel (VCEL +$0.70),
- Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.65),
- AxoGen (AXGN +$0.36),
- Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.28 after Tuesday’s +$0.30 and Monday’s holiday),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.25 after Tuesday’s -$1.77 and Monday’s holiday),
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.22),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.16),
- Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.15),
- Precigen (PGEN +$0.050,
Q4 – December
- Wednesday closed negative with 14 incliner, 19 decliners and 0 flat
- Tuesday closed negative with 1 incliner, 33 decliners and 1 flat
- Monday was a market holiday
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
Cell and gene therapy equities dived after cruising to a positive open but it didn’t hold. On low volume, “our’ universe tried to keep its head above waterline after a positive start.
The sector appears to be exhausted, no longer expecting a short-term rally and just hoping to get to Friday afternoon without any further losses
There are clear winners … AxoGen (AXGN), Vericel (VCEL), Ultragenyx (RARE), Verve Therapeutics (VERV) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)
… With losers repeating the downslide … again today as Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM), and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) fell to the wayside.
Be prepared … just 2 trading days remain in 2022.
The biggest issue for the New Year will be the cloud of recession overhanging the economy, market volatility that affects and effects our universe of cell and gene therapy sector equities
Avrobio (AVRO closed down again -$0.0329 with 260,233 shares traded after Tuesday’s -$0.0341 with 151,542 shares traded, Monday’s holiday and Friday’s-$0.0247 with 128,956 shares traded after Thursday’s -$0.0068 with 121,246 shares traded, Wednesday’s +$0.0001 with 607,023 shares traded, Tuesday’s +$0.0295 with 361,951 shares traded
Says a lot of addressing the delisting issue) as volume WORKS against AVRO having filed a S-3 for $250 million common stock, preferred stock, debt securities, warrants and unit offering within draft prospectus by Cowen as stock sinks while delisting continues?
Just another “screw-job” of investors! < Read, SELL and Weep - see hyperlink below>
Avrobio (AVRO) files S-3 (Registration Statement) for offering with draft prospectus by Cowen … https://investors.avrobio.com/node/9116/html
· Also, RA Capital has sold its position in the company – a sign of dissatisfaction!
· While, President, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?
Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) closed +$0.83 with 550 shares traded after Tuesday’s flat with 117 shares traded on Tuesday after Monday’s holiday after Friday’s $0.00 with 25 shares traded with news of a patent (going nowhere) after Thursday’s $0.00 with 50 shares traded <3-month average =1,928 shares> and last Wednesday’s -$0.02 with 624 shares traded.
· This IND – now almost 4 years old without a clinical trial will last 3-5 years for ADULT patients before BSTG can EVEN consider a pediatric venue!!
“The real question that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash?
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.