December 30, 2022 5:02pm

On track for their worst annual losses since 2008 as investors look to put the painful year behind them

The Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) Chronicles: the pump volume/promote share price (+$0.49 with 1,446 shares traded <3-month average = 1,880 shares>) ends the year of inflated valuation; no trial to date with an almost four (4) year old IND

Why do I keep writing this blog/newsletter; to educate and inform investors, what others won’t say or write. That means trades that didn't move the market before are now creating more volatility.

Subscription is coming, it’s not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors! 

TGIF, end of month and 2022 – Happy soon-to-be New Year, 2023

Subscription is coming, it’s not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!  


If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed DOWN -73.55 points (-0.22%), the S&P closed DOWN -9.78 points (-0.25%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -11.60 points (-0.11%)

 

Henry’omics:

We need to understand the macro to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes fell on Friday as investors made their final trades in the worst year for the market since 2008.

Friday marks the final day of trading of what’s been a painful year for cell and gene therapy sector. A volatile market, sticky inflation, and aggressive rate hikes from the Fed has battered “our’ universe’s equities weighing on investor sentiment.

A useful quote, “As the calendar year turns the corner, some investors think the pain is far from over, and expect the bear market to persist until a recession hits or the Fed pivots. Some also project stocks will hit new lows before rebounding in the second half of 2023.” <CNBC>

For the year, 2033; the Dow closed down -9%, the S&P 500 dived -20% and the Nasdaq tumbled 33%.

Economic Data Docket: “December's Chicago purchasing managers' index (PMI) came in at 44.9 vs. the 41.0 expected, higher than November's 37.2. This report measures overall economic activity in the Chicago area, and is considered a bellwether for the overall economy. A reading below 50 points to contraction in business activity while a reading above 50 shows expansion.” <IBD>

 

Thursday’s … RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “end it on a positive note and good-bye to 2022 sessions to save our market and sector sanity.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12765

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – quite a difference …

  • Friday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 12 up/ 21 down and 1 flat, stayed negative with 9 up/ 26 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 24/10 and 1 flat.
  • Thursday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 31 up/ 4 down and 0 flat, stayed positive with 34 up/ 1 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 33/1 and 1 flat.
  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 21 up/ 11 down and 3 flats, slipped negative with 7 up/ 24 down and 4 flats at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 14/21 and 0 flat.
  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 4 up/ 29 down and 2 flats, stayed negative with 2 up/ 31 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 1/33 and 1 flat.
  • Monday was a market holiday

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was down -0.04% and the XBI was up +0.96%
  • Thursday, the IBB was up +2.43% and the XBI was up +4.34%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was down -2.09% and the XBI was down -2.89%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.07 and the XBI was up +0.29%
  • Monday – a market holiday 

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was up +0.28 points or +1.31% at 21.72
  • Thursday was down -0.74 points or -3.34% at 21.40
  • Wednesday was up +0.55 points or +2.54% at 22.20
  • Tuesday was up +0.91. points or +4.36% at 21.78
  • Monday – a market holiday

 

Closing Down (10 of 10):

  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$1.24 after Thursday’s +$1.41, Wednesday’s +$0.28, Tuesday’s +$0.30 and Monday’s holiday),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.53 after Thursday’s +$1.12),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.43),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.40 after Thursday’s +$6.43, Wednesday’s -$0.69, Tuesday’s -$5.59 and Monday’s holiday),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.39 after Thursday’s +$1.82, Wednesday’s +$0.25, Tuesday’s -$1.77 and Monday’s holiday),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.24),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.14 after Thursday’s +$1.05 and Wednesday’s -$0.17),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.11),
  • Avrobio (AVRO -$0.0176),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.0107),

Flat (1):

  • uniQure NV (QURE)

Closing Up (10 of 24):

  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.16 after Thursday’s +$1.98 and Wednesday’s -$0.65),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.88 after Thursday’s +$1.22 and Wednesday’s +$0.70),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.51 after Thursday’s +$0.83 and Wednesday’s +$0.16),
  • Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG +$0.49 after Thursday’s -$1.62, Wednesday’s +$0.83 and Tuesday’s $0.00),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.45),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.42),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.40),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.32 after Thursday’s +$1.14, Wednesday’s -$1.82, Tuesday’s -$3.08 and Monday’s holiday),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.30),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.23),

 

Q4 – December

Friday (12/30/22) closed positive with 24 incliner, 10 decliners and 1 flat

Thursday closed positive with 33 incliners, 1 decliner and 1 flat

Wednesday closed negative with 14 incliner, 19 decliners and 0 flat

Tuesday closed negative with 1 incliner, 33 decliners and 1 flat

Monday was a market holiday

Friday closed negative with 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 flat

Thursday closed negative with 15 incliner, 19 decliners and 1 flat

Wednesday closed positive with 22 incliner, 12 decliners and 1 flat

Tuesday closed positive with 25 incliner, 7 decliners and 3 flats

Monday closed negative with 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 flat

Friday closed negative with 16 incliner, 19 decliners and 0 flats

Thursday closed negative with 6 incliner, 28 decliners and 1 flat

Wednesday closed negative with 12 incliner, 23 decliners and 0 flat

Tuesday closed positive with 26 incliner, 8 decliners and 1 flat

Monday closed positive with 30 incliner, 3 decliners and 2 flats

Friday closed negative with 2 incliner, 31 decliners and 2 flats

Thursday closed positive with 23 incliner, 11 decliners and 1 flat

Wednesday closed negative with 16 incliner, 19 decliners and 0 flat

Tuesday closed negative with 5 incliner, 30 decliners and 0 flat

Monday closed negative with 3 incliner, 32 decliners and 0 flat

Friday closed positive with 29 incliner, 5 decliners and 1 flat

Thursday (12/1/22) closed negative with 8 incliner, 24 decliners and 3 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

On the final day of the trading year, markets were also being hit by selling to lock in losses that can be written off of tax bills.

It was a challenging year as investors navigated an entirely new set of sector and market tremors.

There are VERY clear losers … Prime Therapeutics (PRME), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Solid biosciences (SLDB) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) fell to the wayside.

… With winners … Ultragenyx (RARE), Vericel (VCEL), Verve Therapeutics (VERV), Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) and Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR)angled to the upside.

The biggest issue for the New Year will be the cloud of recession overhanging the economy, market volatility that affects and effects our universe of cell and gene therapy sector equities

Avrobio (AVRO closed down -$0.0176 with 435,973 shares traded after Thursday’s +$0.0390 with 106,906 shares traded, Wednesday’s -$0.0329 with 260,233 shares traded, Tuesday’s -$0.0341 with 151,542 shares traded and Monday’s holiday.

Says a lot of addressing the delisting issue) as volume WORKS against AVRO having filed a S-3 for $250 million common stock, preferred stock, debt securities, warrants and unit offering within draft prospectus by Cowen as stock sinks while delisting continues?

Just another “screw-job” of investors! < Read, SELL and Weep - see hyperlink below>

Avrobio (AVRO) files S-3 (Registration Statement) for offering with draft prospectus by Cowen … https://investors.avrobio.com/node/9116/html

·         Also, RA Capital has sold its position in the company – a sign of dissatisfaction!

·         While, President, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?

Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) closed up +$0.49 with 1,446 shares traded after Thursday’s -$1.62 to $5.01 with 2,645 shares traded, Wednesday’s +$0.83 with 550 shares traded, Tuesday’s flat with 117 shares traded and Monday’s holiday. <3-month average volume =1,880 shares>

·         This IND – now almost 4 years old without a clinical trial will last 3-5 years for ADULT patients before BSTG can EVEN consider a pediatric venue!!

 My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.