January 4, 2023 4:55pm
Reversing losses but, don’t totally bet on today’s “re-positioning”
Pre-open Indications: 4 Hits and 3 Miss
Why do I keep writing this blog/newsletter; to educate and inform investors, what others won’t say or write. That means trades that didn't move the market before are now creating more volatility.
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If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed UP +133.40 points (+0.40%), the S&P closed UP +28.82 points (+0.75%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +71.78 points (+0.69%)
We need to more than consider the recessionary environment - rising rates and high inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies
Indexes gained Wednesday and rates slid, key jobs data came in slightly better than anticipated, manufacturing data showed a contraction in the sector after 30 months of expansion; while the Fed’s meeting minutes showed the central bank will remain aggressive in its policy to tame high inflation.
It was the first positive close of the year for the three major indices and broke two consecutive days of losses.
Economic Data Docket: Job openings in November were 10.5 million, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS. Analysts expected JOLTS to be about 10 million in November. The number of hires and total separations were also little changed at 6.1 million and 5.9 million, respectively. There were also 4.2 million quits and 1.4 million layoffs and discharges during the month.
Pre-open Indications: 4 Hits <Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.51), Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.13), BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.99), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.20)> and 3 MISS < AxoGen (AXGN - $0.11), Agenus (AGEN +$0.12), Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.92)>
Wednesday’s … RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “a dash of strength. Although, some indications are encouraging, they need support not resistance or technical hurdles.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12770
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – quite a difference …
- Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 25 up/ 6 down and 4 flats, stayed positive with 27 up/ 7 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 7/27 and 1 flat
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Wednesday, the IBB was up +1.28% and the XBI was up +2.11%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Wednesday was down -0.77 points or -3.36% at 22.13
Closing Down (7 of 7):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.73 after Tuesday’s -$4.06 after Monday’s holiday),
- Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.29 after Tuesday’s -$1.04),
- AxoGen (AXGN -$0.11),
- Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.08 after Tuesday’s +$0.12 after Monday's holiday),
- Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0,04),
- Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.02),
- Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.0073 after Tuesday’s +$0.11 after Monday's holiday),
- Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG)
Closing Up (10 of 27):
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$4.48),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$4.00 after Tuesday’s +$0.35 after Monday’s holiday),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$3.88 after Tuesday’s -$1.79),
- Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.92 after Tuesday’s -$0.81 after Monday’s holiday),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.89 after Tuesday’s -$0.87),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.67),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$1.36 after Tuesday’s -$0.45),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.99 after Tuesday’s -$0.53 after Monday's holiday),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.95 after Tuesday’s +$0.08),
- Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.80),
Q1/23 – January
- Wednesday closed positive with 27 incliner, 7 decliners and 1 flat
- Tuesday closed negative with 15 incliner, 18 decliners and 2 flats
- Monday – a market holiday
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
The sector is UP, what more do we need!
Although going forward, what makes me NERVOUS and ANXIOUS about 2023 is short-term momentum as Q4 earnings are due to be released mid-January and into February which will out share pricing into a gauntlet.
There are VERY clear losers today … and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – again, Prime Medicine (PRME) – again, AxoGen (AXGN) and Compass Therapeutics (CMPX) fell to the wayside.
… With winners … Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) – again ascended
Reiterating, “The biggest issue for the New Year will be the cloud of recession overhanging the economy, market volatility that affects and effects our universe of cell and gene therapy sector equities.”
Avrobio (AVRO closed up +$0.0825 with 653, 056 shares traded after Tuesday’s +$0.04 95 after Monday’s holiday and Friday’s down -$0.0176.
The last two sessions say a lot of addressing the delisting issue <is their investment bank buying the shares to "power" their de-listing?> as AVRO filed a S-3 for $250 million common stock, preferred stock, debt securities, warrants and unit offering within draft prospectus by Cowen as stock sinks while delisting continues?
Just another “screw-job” of investors! < Read, SELL and Weep - see hyperlink below>
Avrobio (AVRO) files S-3 (Registration Statement) for offering with draft prospectus by Cowen … https://investors.avrobio.com/node/9116/html
· Also, RA Capital has sold its position in the company – a sign of dissatisfaction!
· While, President, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?
Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) closed flat with 1 share traded after Tuesday’s +$1.31 with only 130 shares traded (they keep buying the shares with a pump/promote agenda after Monday’s holiday and Friday’s +$0.49 with 1,446 shares traded. <3-month average volume =1,856 shares>
· This IND – now almost 4 years old without a clinical trial will last 3-5 years for ADULT patients before BSTG can EVEN consider a pediatric venue!!
My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash?
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.