January 5, 2023 4:52pm

What did I say yesterday, “Reversing losses, don’t totally bet on today’s (Wednesday) “re-positioning”

Pre-open Indications: 7 Hits and 1 Miss

The Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) Chronicles: the pump volume/promote share pricing is NOT working -$1.01 with 2,634 shares traded <3-month average = 1,777 shares>. After emasculating U.S. shareholders, they “pump” for all that mostly remain are Chinese investors? Questions remain re viability of BSTG going forward?

Why do I keep writing this blog/newsletter; to educate and inform investors, what others won’t say or write.  

Subscription is coming, it’s not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!  Join me in interpreting the numbers and enhancing your portfolio 

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed DOWN -339.69 points (-1.02%), the S&P closed DOWN -44.87 points (-1.16%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -153.52 points (-1.47%)

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the recessionary environment - rising rates and high inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

Indexes fell Thursday after jobs data showed the labor market is still strong amid the Fed’s interest rate hikes to tame inflation.

  • The ADP private payrolls report showed that employers added 235,000 jobs in December, well above economist estimates. Wages also increased more than anticipated, another sign that the labor market remains hot. Later in the morning, weekly jobless claims came in below expectations and showed a drop in continuing claims. <CNBC>

Economic Data Docket: Initial jobless claims ticked up slightly to 225,000 in the week ending Dec. 24, according to the Labor Department. But continuing claims - which count those who have been on unemployment for more than one week - dropped.

 

Pre-open Indications: 7 Hits < Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.06), BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.50), Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.12), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA-$0.34), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.87), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.45), Agenus (AGEN -$0.07)> and 1 MISS < Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$1.14)  

 

Thursday’s … RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “who says economics doesn’t affect the cell and gene therapy sector?  Despite one (1) up 2023 session; inflation, rate hikes, volatility and recession possibilities in 2023 and Q4 earnings season due will put a fence around the parameters of share pricing – keep it in the back of your mind” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12772

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – quite a difference …

  • Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 9 up/ 24 down and 2 flats, stayed negative with 17 up/ 18 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 16/17 and 2 flats

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

Thursday, the IBB was up +0.11% and the XBI was down -0.86%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was up +0.48 points or +2.18% at 22.49

 

Closing Down (10 of 17):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$7.18 after Wednesday’s -$0.73, Tuesday’s -$4.06 after Monday’s holiday),
  • Chinook therapeutics (KDNY -$1.14),
  • Vericel VCEL -$1.04),
  • Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG - $1.01)
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.50 after Wednesday’s +$0.99 and Tuesday’s -$0.53),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.34 after Wednesday’s +$4.48),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.34),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.29 after Wednesday’s +$0.80),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.25 after Wednesday’s +$1.36, Tuesday’s -$0.45 and Monday’s holiday),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.21 after Wednesday’s +$1.92, Tuesday’s -$0.81),

Closing Up (10 of 16):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.45 after Wednesday’s +$4.00, Tuesday’s +$0.35 after Monday’s holiday),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.87 after Wednesday’s +$1.67),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.56 after Wednesday’s -$0.29, Tuesday’s -$1.04 after Monday’s holiday),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.54 after Wednesday’s -$0.11),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.27),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.19),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.18 after Wednesday’s +$1.89 and Tuesday’s -$0.87 after Monday's holiday),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.18),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.10),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.08),

 

Q1/23 – January

  • Thursday closed negative with 17 incliner, 16 decliners and 2 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

The sector flipped to the downside … after strong jobs data signals Fed likely to stay in “hiking” mode.

Although, what STILL makes me NERVOUS and ANXIOUS about 2023 is short-term momentum as Q4 earnings are due to be released mid-January and into February which will out share pricing into a gauntlet.

From this a.m.’s post:

·         “The “glitter” of JPM23’s healthcare Conference<next week> should highlight “disparities” of the sector!

·         Investors should wait for clear signs of upward or forward motion before making new buys.

  • “Be wary of buying stocks on the first "blip" of strength. It's still time to be cautious about any new buys. Buy signals and breakouts could quickly fizzle if the market falls back again.”

There are VERY clear losers today … Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – again, Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY), Vericel (VCEL) and Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) fell to the wayside.

… With winners … CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) – again, Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Prime Medicine (PRME) and AxoGen (AXGN) ascending

Reiterating, “The biggest issue for the New Year will be the cloud of recession overhanging the economy, market volatility that affects and effects our universe of cell and gene therapy sector equities.”

Avrobio (AVRO closed up again +$0.02 with 609,564 share traded after Wednesday’s +$0.0825 with 653, 056 shares traded after Tuesday’s +$0.04 95 after Monday’s holiday and Friday’s down -$0.0176.

The last two sessions say a lot of addressing the delisting issue <is their investment bank buying the shares?> as AVRO filed a S-3 for $250 million common stock, preferred stock, debt securities, warrants and unit offering within draft prospectus by Cowen as stock sinks while delisting continues?

Just another “screw-job” of investors! < Read, SELL and Weep - see hyperlink below>

Avrobio (AVRO) files S-3 (Registration Statement) for offering with draft prospectus by Cowen … https://investors.avrobio.com/node/9116/html

·         Also, RA Capital has sold its position in the company – a sign of dissatisfaction!

·         While, President, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?

Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) closed down -$1.10 with 2,634 shares traded after Wednesday’s flat with 1 share traded, Tuesday’s +$1.31 with only 130 shares traded (they keep buying the shares with a pump/promote agenda) after Monday’s holiday and last Friday’s +$0.49 with 1,446 shares traded. <3-month average volume =1,777 shares>

·         This IND – now almost 4 years old without a clinical trial will last 3-5 years for ADULT patients before BSTG can EVEN consider a pediatric venue!!

 My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.