January 9, 2023 7:53am
I believe nuances of clinical advancement, platform shifts, ATM utilization, lack of capital market access, revenue shortfalls compounded by economics, and ultimately algorithmic based sentiment has added a new awkwardness to value. Remember hope is NOT a technical indicator!
Pre-open Indication: 3 Positive Indications and 3 Negative Indications
I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others won’t say or write about - truth! Subscription is coming, it’s not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors! Join me …
The 8:00 a.m. edition
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session.
Dow futures are UP +0.30% or (+100 points), S&P futures are UP +0.41% or (+16 point) and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.46% or (+50 points) early in the pre-open – so far
Stock futures rose Monday,
European markets were higher,
Asia-Pacific markets traded higher.
We need to understand the macro to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Friday, indexes popped after investors reacted to data showing the labor market and wage growth finally starting to cool-off.
· The Dow closed UP +699.71 points (+2.12%), the S&P closed UP +86.90 points (+2.28%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +264.05 points (+2.56%)
Economic Data Docket: New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations and consumer credit data
· December’s consumer price index report is due out Thursday, followed by big bank earnings on Friday. Nearer term, the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations along with consumer credit data are due out Monday. Wall Street will also hear commentary from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic.
Friday’s (1/6) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “jobs, economic data pushes market and cell/gene therapy sector uphill. Look at the week’s advance/decline lines – chaotic after a crappy 2022 as sentiment is influenced by economics while share pricing swells on eve of JPM23.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12775
Ebb and flow:
Q1/23 – 1 holiday, 2 positive and 2 negative closes
· December – 1 holiday, 13 negative and 8 positive closes
· November -1 holiday, 14 negative and 8 positive closes
· October -1 neutral, 11 positive and 9 negative closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: INDICATIONS
Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) closed down again -$0.76 to $40.38 after Thursday’s -$0.06, Wednesday’s +$3.88 with a positive +$0.90 or +2.23% pre-open indication,
Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) closed down -$0.57 to $46.66 after Thursday’s -$0.21 with a positive +$0.69 or +1.48% aftermarket indication,
Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) closed up +$0.67 to $6.96 after Thursday’s +$0.29 with a positive +$3.26 or +46.84% pre-open indication on news of a new strategic collaboration to advance multiple gene therapies for the treatment of neurological diseases. VYGR receive up-front consideration of $175 million including a $39 million equity investment, up to $1.5 billion in potential development milestones, additional potential commercial milestones, tiered royalties on net sales, program funding, and an option to elect 50/50 cost- and profit-sharing in the U.S. for the GBA1 program following Phase 1 readout -
BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed up +$0.40 to $18.56 with a negative -$0.58 or -3.12% aftermarket indication,
uniQure NV (QURE) closed up +$0.44 to $22.97 with a negative -$0.69 or -3% pre-open indication,
Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed up +$0.95 to $40.29 after Thursday’s +$0.18 with a negative -$0.54 or -1.34% aftermarket indication
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple and short!
Friday, the sector flipped to the upside – barely after Thursday’s downside … following the jobs report stimulated the economics of the market and sector to a “hiking” mode.
Although, what STILL makes me NERVOUS and ANXIOUS about 2023 is short-term momentum as Q4 earnings are due to be released mid-January and into February which will out share pricing into a gauntlet.
The “glitter” of JPM’s healthcare Conference<next week> should highlight “disparities” of the sector!
Investors should wait for clear signs of upward or forward motion before making new buys.
My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on will happen behind the headlines today, not tomorrow or yesterday
Reiterating, “As 2023 trading begins, some investors think the pain is far from over; I agree for Q1 as earnings releases could hinder share pricing however, once through that “gauntlet” – we could see a bit of a smoother road in Q2/2023 hoping for a few clinical results and successful financings – well needed for more than usual companies.”
“Don't act like the market is in an uptrend until the market is actually in an uptrend”.
Insight is about understanding perception and also about putting into context what is relevant to expectation fulfillment,
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication.