January 10, 2023 4:54pm
JPM23 – day #2 gets some help from Monday’s oversold being “stimulated” by good, old “uncle algorithms with brother electronic trading”
Pre-open Indications: 3 Hits and 4 Miss
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If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed UP +186.45 points (+0.56%), the S&P closed UP +27.16 points (+0.70%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +106.98 points (+1.01%)
We need to more than consider the recessionary environment - rising rates and high inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies
Indexes advanced Tuesday as investors built on Monday’s losses in the Dow and S&P with an upside move while awaiting economic data and corporate earnings coming later in the week.
Pre-open Indications: 3 Hits < Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$1.18), Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.79), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.95)> and 4 MISS < Avrobio (AVRO $0.02), uniQure NV (QURE +$0.43), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.92), Vericel (VCEL +$3.88)>
Note: RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: News related to JPM23 … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12777
Tuesday’s … RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “after a lackluster first day at JPM23 with smaller attendance, NO masks and a diving sector.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12779
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – quite a difference
- Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 30 up/ 8 down and 1 flat, stayed positive with 17 up/ 7 down and 1 flats at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 28/6 and 1 flat
- Monday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 23 up/ 10 down and 2 flats, stayed negative with 17 up/ 18 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 13/22 and 0 flat
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Tuesday, the IBB was up +2.26% and the XBI was up +2.82%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Tuesday was down -1.34 points or -6.10% at 20.63
Closing Down (6 of 6):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.22 after Monday’s -$5.28),
- AxoGen (AXGN-$0.21),
- Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.11 after Monday’s +$0.07)
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.05 after Monday’s +$0.15)
- Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.02 after Monday’s +$0.06),
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.0099 after Monday’s +$0.0288),
- Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG $0.00 after Monday’s +$0.23)
Closing Up (10 of 28):
- Vericel (VCEL +$3.88),
- Ultragenyx (RARE +$2.85 after Monday’s -$6.06),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.56 after Monday’s -$0.53),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.42 after Monday’s -$1.71),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$1.18),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.06 after Monday’s -$3.27),
- Prime Medicine (PRME +$1.01 after Monday’s -$0.52),
- Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.95 after Monday’s +$0.04),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.92),
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.79 after Monday’s -$0.99),
Q1/23 – January
- Tuesday closed positive with 28 incliner, 6 decliners and 1 flat
- Monday closed negative with 13 incliner, 22 decliners and 0 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
The JP Morgan healthcare conference is shaking the tree with many/most attending companies rushing out ANY news and early quarterly results as the cell and gene therapy … inched and closed UP after being OVERSOLD <of my 35 covered companies>
Although, what STILL makes me NERVOUS and ANXIOUS about 2023 is short-term momentum as Q4 earnings are due to be released mid-January and into February which will out share pricing into a gauntlet.
- “The “glitter” of JPM23’s day-2 healthcare Conference should highlight “disparities” of the sector!
- All quiet on tuesday - where is all the news...
- Investors should wait for clear signs of upward or forward motion before making new buys.
- Be wary of buying stocks on the first "blip" of strength. It's still time to be cautious about any new buys.
Buy signals and breakouts could quickly fizzle if the market falls back again.
There are VERY clear losers today … Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – all last week and 2x this, AxoGen (AXGN)
… With winners … Vericel (VCEL), Ultragenyx (RARE) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
Reiterating, “The biggest issue for the New Year will be the cloud of recession overhanging the economy, market volatility that affects and effects our universe of cell and gene therapy sector equities.”
Avrobio (AVRO closed up barely +$0.02 with 170,669 shares traded after Monday’s +$0.0179 to $0.85 <after being up almost +$0.05> with heavy volume of 913,508 shares traded after last Friday’s -$0.0227 with 294,842 shares trading after Thursday’s +$0.02 with 609,564 share traded after Wednesday’s +$0.0825 with 653, 056 shares traded after Tuesday’s +$0.04 95 after Monday’s holiday and the previous Friday’s down -$0.0176.
Today’s sessions say a lot of addressing the delisting issue <is their investment bank buying the shares?> as AVRO filed a S-3 for $250 million common stock, preferred stock, debt securities, warrants and unit offering within draft prospectus by Cowen as stock sinks while delisting continues?
Just another “screw-job” of investors! < Read, SELL and Weep - see hyperlink below>
Avrobio (AVRO) files S-3 (Registration Statement) for offering with draft prospectus by Cowen … https://investors.avrobio.com/node/9116/html
· Also, RA Capital has sold its position in the company – a sign of dissatisfaction!
· While, President, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?
Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) closed flat with 0 shares traded after Monday’s +$0.23 with 121 shares traded, Friday’s FLAT with 25 shares traded, Thursday’s -$1.10 with 2,634 shares traded, Wednesday’s flat with 1 share traded and last Tuesday’s +$1.31 with only 130 shares traded (they keep buying the shares with a pump/promote agenda). <3-month average volume =1,535 shares>
· Review the trading pricing and volume versus the pump/promote agenda – somethings “wrong in Denmark” that’s Beijing, China for you – not following USA rules!!
· This IND – now almost 4 years old without a clinical trial that will last 3-5 years for ADULT patients before BSTG can EVEN consider a pediatric venue!!
· They hired a CRO; hope they PAY them after all the difficulties the previous CRO went through and the same individuals are in charge!
My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash?
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.