January 12, 2023 8:41am
Who's on first – CPI inflation report, “What's on second, I Don't Know is on third ...That's what I want to find out”. Investors were optimistic ahead of an inflation report that could give the Fed room to dial back on its aggressive interest rate hikes.
Pre-open Indication: 1 Sell into Strength, 2 Positive Indications and 1 Negative Indications
I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others won’t say or write about - truth! Subscription is coming, it’s not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors! Join me … in the NO spin zone.
The 8:30 a.m. edition
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session.
Dow futures are UP +0.36% or (+123 points), S&P futures are UP +0.39% or (+15 point) and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.33% or (+37 points) early in the pre-open – so far
Stock futures were slightly higher Thursday,
European stocks moved higher,
Asia-Pacific shares were mostly higher.
We need to understand the macro to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes rallied Wednesday ahead of the CPI - inflation report as investors bet that the Fed could slow down its rate hikes in light of tamer prices.
- The Dow closed UP +268.91 points (+0.80%), the S&P closed UP +50.36 points (+1.28%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +189.04 points (+1.76%)
Repeating a quote from last night, “The stock market continues to drift higher this week into Thursday’s key inflation reading, and that could make a negative surprise on inflation more painful for investors. <BTIG technical strategist Jonathan Krinsk>
Economic Data Docket: CPI -down -0.01% with core +5.7%
· Economists expect the consumer price index to dip -0.1% for December - it had a rise +5.7% year-over-year, compared to a 0.1% monthly gain in November and an annual pace of 7.1%. The CPI is well off the 9.1% peak rate in June.
Wednesday’s (1/11) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “sector gains, follow Tuesday’s advances post Monday’s pain. So, what emanated from JPM323?” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12782
Ebb and flow:
Q1/23 – 1 holiday, 4 positive and 3 negative closes
· December – 1 holiday, 13 negative and 8 positive closes
· November -1 holiday, 14 negative and 8 positive closes
· October -1 neutral, 11 positive and 9 negative closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: INDICATIONS
Sell into Strength:
BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed up +$1.53 to $22.34 after Tuesday’s +$0.58 with a positive +$0.45 or +2.01% pre-open indication,
Verve Therapeutics (VERV) closed up +$0.35 to $21.71 after Tuesday’s -$0.26 with a positive +$0.43 or +1.98% aftermarket indication,
Prime Medicine (PRME) close down -$0.72 to $16.54 after Tuesday’s +$1.01 with a positive +$0.77 or +4.86% pre-open indication.
Solid Biosciences (SLDB) closed up +$0.30 to $6.25 with a negative -$0.24 or -3.84% pre-open indication,
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple and short!
I was surprised the JPM23 healthcare conference had little news that drove pricing!
Two (2) positive closes in a row as the Nasdaq, which has been a laggard in recent months, cleared its 50-day line for the first time in nearly a month.
“Rallying into Fed-critical economic data or events has been dicey, at best, over the past several months. Yes, a tame CPI inflation report could send the market rally flying. But a hotter-than-expected reading could trigger a big sell-off. And the market is pricing in "good news." <IBD>
Reiteration, “There is the 800-pound gorilla in the room. The central bank. The Federal Reserve and their either overt intention to force this recession or quite simply, their inability to cogently interpret economic conditions in anything approaching real-time.” <TheStreeet>
Although, what STILL makes me NERVOUS and ANXIOUS about 2023 is short-term momentum as Q4 earnings are due to be released mid-January and into February which will out share pricing into a gauntlet.
My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on will happen behind the headlines today, not tomorrow or yesterday
Reiterating, “As 2023 trading begins, some investors think the pain is far from over; I agree for Q1 as earnings releases could hinder share pricing however, once through that “gauntlet” – we could see a bit of a smoother road in Q2/2023 hoping for a few clinical results and successful financings – well needed for more than usual companies.”
“Don't act like the market is in an uptrend until the market is actually in an uptrend”.
Insight is about understanding perception and also about putting into context what is relevant to expectation fulfillment,
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication.