January 13, 2023 4:44pm
I started the a.m. post the title, “vulnerable after a surge, there is usually a purge”. Cautious optimism is the bye-word for Q4 and FY22 reporting season looms with some companies reporting un-audited numbers to prop share pricing
Remember Monday is a market holiday
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The week in review and TGIF
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your bank account are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed UP +112.64 points (+0.33%), the S&P closed UP +15.91 points (+0.40%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +78.05 points (+0.71%)
We need to more than consider the recessionary environment - rising rates and high inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies
Indexes pared initial declines as the bank stocks moved off their early lows.
After a three-day advance; indexes have gotten off to a strong start this year led by the Nasdaq, which has risen more than 4%, the S&P +0.01% and the Dow +1%, so far this week.
However, despite Thursday’s CPI report showing inflation easing further in December, futures traders have cemented expectations for more Fed interest rate hikes in February and March.
Economic Data Docket: U.S. import prices rose in December as the dollar weakened, breaking a streak of monthly declines. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for January climbed to 64.6, its highest level in nine months, as expectations for the rate of inflation one year out moderated.
Friday’s … RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “vulnerable? After a surge, there is usually a purge.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12785
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – quite a difference
- Friday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 25 up/ 8 down and 2 flats, stayed positive with 18 up/ 16 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 19/14 and 2 flat
- Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 8 up/ 26 down and 1 flat, flipped negative with 22 up/ 13 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 30/5 and 0 flat
- Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 22 up/ 10 down and 3 flats, stayed positive with 21 up/ 12 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 22/12 and 1 flat
- Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 30 up/ 8 down and 1 flat, stayed positive with 27 up/ 7 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 28/6 and 1 flat
- Monday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 23 up/ 10 down and 2 flats, stayed negative with 17 up/ 18 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 13/22 and 0 flat
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Friday, the IBB was up +0.83% and the XBI was down -0.03%
- Thursday, the IBB was up +0.84% and the XBI was up +4.17%
- Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.57% and the XBI was up +0.96%
- Tuesday, the IBB was up +2.26% and the XBI was up +2.82%
- Monday, the IBB was down -2.15% and the XBI was down -2.27%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Friday was down -0.66 points or -3.51% at 18.17
- Thursday was down -2.06 points or -9.77% at 19.03
- Wednesday was up +0.51 points or +2.48% at 21.09
- Tuesday was down -1.34 points or -6.10% at 20.63
- Monday was up +0.84points or +3.98% at 21.97
Closing Down (10 of 14):
- Vericel (VCEL -$1.13 after Thursday’s +$1.92, Wednesday’s -$0.11 and Tuesday’s +$3.88),
- Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.82),
- Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.61),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.57),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.46),
- Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.45),
- bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.33),
- Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.24),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.16 after Thursday’s +$1.39, Wednesday’s +$0.30 and Tuesday’s +$1.18),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.13 after Thursday’s +$2.49 and Wednesday’s +$1.43),
- Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG)
- Homology Medicine (FIXX)
Closing Up (10 of xx):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$5.69 after Thursday’s +$4.62, Wednesday’s +$5.72 after Tuesday’s -$0.22 and Monday’s -$5.28),
- Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +1.49$),
- AxoGen (AXGN +$1.13 after Thursday’s -$0.39 after Wednesday’s -$0.66 and Tuesday’s -$0.21),
- uniQure NV (QURE +$0.82),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.82),
- Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.36 after Thursday’s +$1.47, Wednesday’s -$1.73, Tuesday’s +$2.85 and Monday’s -$6.06),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.28 after Thursday’s +$1.31),
- Sage Therapeutics +$0.27 after Thursday’s +$4.35),
- Precigen (PGEN +$0.25),
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.24),
Q1/23 – January
- Friday closed positive with 19 incliner, 14 decliners and 2 flats
- Thursday closed positive with 30 incliner, 5 decliners and 0 flat
- Wednesday closed positive with 22 incliner, 12 decliners and 1 flat
- Tuesday closed positive with 28 incliner, 6 decliners and 1 flat
- Monday closed negative with 13 incliner, 22 decliners and 0 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
The upside of Friday started strong and faded as the session evolved as JPM23 “yawn” healthcare conference ended.
Four (4) positive closes in a row - spells trouble on Tuesday's sector session.
Reiterating, what STILL makes me NERVOUS and ANXIOUS about 2023 is short-term momentum as Q4 earnings are due to be released mid-January and into February which will out share pricing into a gauntlet.
· Investors should wait for clear signs of upward or forward motion before making new buys.
· Be wary of buying stocks on the first "blip" of strength. It's still time to be cautious about any new buys.
· Buy signals and breakouts could quickly fizzle if the market falls back again.
There are VERY clear losers today … Vericel (VCEL), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)
… With winners … Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Voyager therapeutics (VYGR) and AxoGen (AXGN),
Reiterating, “The biggest issue for the New Year will be the cloud of recession overhanging the economy, market volatility that affects and effects our universe of cell and gene therapy sector equities.”
Avrobio (AVRO closed up +$0.0251 to $0.92 with 139,678 shares traded after Thursday’s+$0.0447 with 71,210 shares traded, Wednesday’s - $0.0198 with 95,425 shares traded, Tuesday’s +$0.02 with 170,669 shares traded, Monday’s +$0.0179 to $0.85 <after being up almost +$0.05> with heavy volume of 913,508 shares traded after last Friday’s -$0.0227 with 294,842 shares trading.
Today’s sessions say a lot of addressing the delisting issue <is their investment bank buying the shares?> as AVRO filed a S-3 for $250 million common stock, preferred stock, debt securities, warrants and unit offering within draft prospectus by Cowen as stock sinks while delisting continues?
Just another “screw-job” of investors! < Read, SELL and Weep - see hyperlink below>
Avrobio (AVRO) files S-3 (Registration Statement) for offering with draft prospectus by Cowen … https://investors.avrobio.com/node/9116/html
· Also, RA Capital has sold its position in the company – a sign of dissatisfaction!
· While, President, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?
Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) closed flat with 0 shares traded after Thursday’s +$0.08 with 671 shares traded, Wednesday’s -$0.21 with 100 shares trade, Tuesday with 0 shares traded, Monday’s +$0.23 with 121 shares traded, Friday’s FLAT with 25 shares traded <3-month average volume =1,403 shares>
· Review the trading pricing and volume versus the pump/promote agenda – somethings “wrong in Denmark” that’s Beijing, China for you – not following USA rules!!
· This IND – now almost 4 years old without a clinical trial that will last 3-5 years for ADULT patients before BSTG can EVEN consider a pediatric venue!!
· They hired a CRO; hope they PAY them after all the difficulties the previous CRO went through and the same individuals are in charge!
My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash?
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.