January 18, 2023 4:41pm
I am doubting the markets and cell/gene therapy sector’s strength as Q4 reporting season is about to begin
Pre-Open Indication: 4 Hits and 0 Miss
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If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed DOWN -614.22 points (-1.81%), the S&P closed DOWN -62.19 points (-1.56%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -138.10 points (-1.24%)
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the recessionary environment - rising rates and high inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies
Indexes and the cell and gene therapy sector gave back any gains on Wednesday as investors hit the brakes on the new year’s rally, now in its third week.
- The reversal is a combination of skittishness and profit taking as “hawkish comments from Fed officials sparked worries that the central bank may not be pausing interest rate hikes any time soon”.
We are headed into the battle of share pricing as Q4 reporting is about to kick-off even as many companies announced early to “prop” their share pricing at JPMorgan#23 healthcare conference
Volume on the Nasdaq was higher compared with the same time on Tuesday.
Signs of inflation cooling strengthened on Wednesday as … gains were short-lived as St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stressed on the need to raise rates beyond 5% to bring inflation to heel. <Yahoo! finance>
Economic Data Docket: The PPI showed a 0.5% decline for December. Economists surveyed expected a 0.1% decline. That briefly gave relief to investors who have hoped for inflation to retreat and for the Fed to slow its rate-hiking campaign. Declining prices were also reflected in retail sales, which fell 1.1% in December, slightly more than the 1% forecast.
Wednesday’s … RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “what do investors see – not far? Futures are stagnant and Tuesday’s aftermarket was weak.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12789
Pre-Open Indications: 4 hits <CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.19), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.04), bluebird bio (BLUE -$1.20), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.01)> 0 Miss
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – quite a difference
- Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 29 up/ 5 down and 1 flat, flipped negative with 10 up/ 24 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 8/27 and 0 flat
Key Metrics:
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Wednesday, the IBB was down -0.75% and the XBI was down -1.14%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Wednesday was up +0.90 points or +4.65% at 20.26
Closing Down (10 of 27):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.92 after Tuesday’s -$1.80 and Monday’s holiday),
- bluebird bio (BLUE -$1.26 after Tuesday’s -$0.61),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.22 after Tuesday’s +$1.83),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$1.13 after Tuesday’s +$0.32 and Monday’s holiday),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.97 after Tuesday’s -$0.59),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.96 after Tuesday’s +$1.41),
- Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.80),
- Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.79),
- AxoGen (AXGN -$0.78 after Tuesday’s -$0.21 and Monday’s holiday),
- Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.53 after Tuesday’s -$1.08),
Closing Up (8 of 8):
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.16 after Tuesday’s +$0.40 and Monday’s holiday),
- Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.12 after Tuesday’s -$1.05),
- Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.10),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.09 after Tuesday’s +$0.32),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.06 after Tuesday’s +$1.21 and Monday’s holiday),
- Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.03 after Tuesday’s -$1.57),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.02),
- Precigen (PGEN +$0.02),
Q1/23 – January
- Wednesday closed negative with 8 incliner, 27 decliners and 0 flat
- Tuesday closed negative with 14 incliner, 20 decliners and 1 flat
- Monday was a market holiday
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
My guide to 'good news seems to be bad news' and 'bad news is good news. 'In normal times, no one really questions whether good news in the economy is actually good.
Look at this a.m.’s open, positive until it wasn’t at approximately 12:15 p.m. Investors should wait for clear signs of upward or forward motion before making new buys.
Reiterating, what STILL makes me NERVOUS and ANXIOUS about 2023 is short-term momentum as Q4 earnings are due to be released mid-January and into February which will out share pricing into a gauntlet.
There are VERY clear losers today … Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), bluebird bio (BLUE) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP),
… With winners … Solid Biosciences (SLDB), Ultragenyx (RARE) and Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM)
Avrobio (AVRO closed down again -$0.0402 with 212,461 shares traded after Tuesday’s -$0.0098 to $0.89 with 273,903 shares traded, Monday’s holiday and Friday’s +$0.0251 to $0.92 with 139,678 shares traded, Thursday’s+$0.0447 with 71,210 shares traded and last Wednesday’s - $0.0198 with 95,425 shares traded. <3-month average = 345,872 shares>
The many sessions since acknowledging the de-listing “issue” say a lot of addressing the NASDAQ issue <is their investment bank buying the shares?> as AVRO filed a S-3 for $250 million common stock, preferred stock, debt securities, warrants and unit offering within draft prospectus by Cowen as stock sinks while de-listing continues?
Just another “screw-job” of investors! < Read, SELL and Weep - see hyperlink below>
Avrobio (AVRO) files S-3 (Registration Statement) for offering with draft prospectus by Cowen … https://investors.avrobio.com/node/9116/html
· Also, RA Capital has sold its position in the company – a sign of dissatisfaction!
· While, President, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?
Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) closed down -$0.07 with 421 shares traded after Tuesday’s up +$0.60 with 3,047 shares traded, Monday’s holiday and Friday’s flat with 0 shares traded, Thursday’s +$0.08 with 671 shares traded and last Wednesday’s -$0.21 with 100 shares trade <3-month average volume =1,354 shares>
· Review the trading pricing and volume versus the pump/promote agenda – somethings “wrong in Denmark” that’s Beijing, China for you – not following USA rules!!
· This IND – now almost 4 years old without a clinical trial that will last 3-5 years for ADULT patients before BSTG can EVEN consider a pediatric venue!!
· They hired a CRO; hope they PAY them after all the difficulties the previous CRO went through and the same individuals are in charge!
· Question; is this a Ponzi scheme as shares are bought to replace those sold??
My question resounds, what should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash?
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
